Bulletins and News Discussion from March 31st to April 6th, 2025 - Magnitude 7.7 Earthquake Hits Mandalay

Image of destruction in Mandalay, Myanmar, from Al Jazeera.

As if the ongoing civil war wasn't enough, Myanmar has now been struck by a very powerful earthquake, resulting in 2000 deaths and thousands more injured as of the time of writing. Estimates are that the death toll could reach 10,000. Infrastructure like roads and bridges are damaged, and the hospitals are overwhelmed. The earthquake struck during Eid prayers, resulting in even higher casualties as several mosques collapsed. 20 million people already required humanitarian assistance in Myanmar, and now the situation there will be even worse. International rescue teams have rushed into the country, and aid is being raised, though with USAID experiencing the... changes that it is, the United States will be of even more limited help than usual. So far, China has sent $14 million, while USAID has supplied $2 million. In Thailand, the death toll seems considerably lower, though there has still been significant damage; a skyscraper under construction collapsed in Bangkok.

Myanmar is located very close to the boundary between the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates. In particular, the country is divided in two by the north-south oriented Sagaing fault. This fault is typically strike-slip; that is, each side of the fault moves horizontally past each other. The earthquake's depth was 10 kilometers, which is pretty shallow, and its proximity to the surface amplified the felt force of the earthquake. Additionally, the soft soil in this region tends to further amplify seismic waves through a process called liquefaction. Combine all this with the lackluster building codes due to many years of impoverishment and civil wars, and this explains why the death toll, and the expense to the country in general to repair damage, will probably be extremely high.

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An update on the bombings of the "Amad Tunnels" in Yemen. Satellite imagery has been released, showing a 100m/330ft+ long gash in a mountain in the Amad area. Only one aircraft in the US fleet carries a bomb big enough to make such a huge hole in a mountain, the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber with the GBU-57 MOP bomb. So B-2s are being used in Yemen now. This also explains the censored satellite imagery of the B-2s at Diego Garcia, they were being worked on for missions. Expect official confirmation soon from US news sources.
Twitter link showing the satellite imagery
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Image of the 100+m gash:
How the site usually looks like on Google Maps, the gash would be just below the pin. You can also see the tunnel entrances along the main road:
Attempt to provide a measurement for context:
Official confirmation just in from CNN. Abdul Malik al-Houthi (the leader of the Ansarallah/Houthi movement) also commented on the use of B-2s in his latest speech.
B-2 bombers out of Diego Garcia are also being used against the Houthis, and an additional aircraft carrier as well as several fighter squadrons and air defense systems will soon be moved into the Central Command region, defense officials said this week.
The CNN article makes an error in munitions use though, the US Navy is using SLAM-ER cruise missiles, not JASSM cruise missiles.
More confirmation: the uncensored satellite imagery of the B-2s at Diego Garcia has been released, weapons loading in progress:
~~Given that the bombing of the Amad Tunnels took place on the morning of April 1st, Rybar were correct in their statement about B-2 bombers being used in Yemen.~~
Just checked, Rybar said the bombings tool place during March 29-30, a bit early.
In assessing the military impact of the US campaign, I'd say that the US has stopped Ansarallah from launching ballistic missiles at Israel for now, countered the unmanned aerial systems (cruise missiles and drones) threat with new weaponry and tactics, and suppressed their air defences to some extent, but Ansarallah are still able to shoot down slow flying drones like the MQ-9 Reaper, and Anti Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) capability appears to remain intact, given that the US Navy Carrier Strike Group is not coming within 700km of Yemen. As long as Ansarallah have ASBM capability, they can blockade the Red Sea. This a key capability that Ansarallah cannot allow to be degraded or lost. It's the backbone of their ability to carry out naval blockades. Ansarallah are set to unveil a new variant of their "Red Sea" missile based off of Iranian artillery rockets (so around 140km range) just for this purpose.
All in all this is another warning shot to Iran, the US just put a 400ft long crater in a mountainous bunker in Yemen. The GBU-57 MOP is a serious threat to underground facilities. I did a post on it here.

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