How bad do we all think things are likely going to get in the west/imperial cores? How quickly do we think the west's internal spiral to fascism is going to proceed?
How bad do we all think things are likely going to get in the west/imperial cores? How quickly do we think the west's internal spiral to fascism is going to proceed?
Saw this thread, and it really hit a chord with me, as these similar fears tend to constantly weigh on me (for various reasons- being trans, ethnic Chinese, commie, etc).
I think we all (leftists, but also just most minorities) know, shit is bad and will get worse, it's just a question of how bad it will get. People mention it offhand without usually going further into the details, and similarly in other spaces - non-leftist ones as well, for instance Asian diasporic and LGBT spaces in my experience, these fears come up, but ultimately we keep the bulk of our concerns to ourselves. What are our expectations here, for the west? Not just for the US, but the Anglosphere and Europe?
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concentration camps, murder, forced sterilization, and potentially slavery for undocumented migrants as the climate collapse causes their numbers to swell. Invasion of northern Mexico for a buffer zone. Completely ineffective federal management leaves most local governments fending for themselves. There is regional Junta that does nothing to help, and you only see them 0-3 times a year when they roll through your town with vehicles and equipment that look even more piecemeal than the last time to punish anyone suspected of disloyalty, then leaving abruptly. The return of absolute hunger and deaths from malnourishment. US Navy begins open piracy on food and aid shipments in southeast Asia.
I think this will come to pass around 2045. around 2035 is when the US will have finished gearing up to confront China, and what victory looks like in that conflict will doubtlessly shape the next decade to a large degree. I doubt China will dismantled given it's size and internal security, but the strategic destruction the US can inflict would be devastating. Even if they do sink the US navy, if they don't win fast, then they've lost.
concentration camps and forced sterilization cost money so I think they're not very likely. slavery is possible. murder is likely - I think the police will just be slowly given more leeway to kill undesirables. I don't think it will be that difficult to convince average americans that petty theft deserves to be met with gunfire.
Agreed. Fascism forms to the superstructure of the culture it inhabits. Police’s history being rooted in slave patrols and their relationship to lynch mobs could become relevant again. Or on the less distributed and more centrally planned side of things (camps, etc) I don’t see us scaling up what we did to the Japanese in WWII, but I do see massive expansions of privately owned prisons with deteriorating oversight as being on the table. And speaking of lack of oversight, some cross between residential schools and the troubled teen industry could quickly become the “solution” to the existence of queer children.
This is- upon thinking and reading it over properly once or twice, actually not so unimaginable. A fair bit of it already has happened, some of it is happening, and others could easily happen again and are well on track to doing so (and they're pretty honest about their intentions for the straits of Malacca as someone whose family is from the region- and unofficial invasions/regime change/etc of Mexico is absolutely possible and perhaps more likely as the contradictions of empire increase).
Of course, in the midst of all the genocides (domestic and being waged abroad), slavery, sterilization, starvation, and warmongering they'll also continue touting themselves as the "beacons of democracy," the paragons of "freedom" and "human rights." Just as they are now while being guilty of arguably around half of what you described, just as they have for their almost-250 years of settler barbarism... and of course it honestly won't matter (though we all know it wouldn't) which "party" and figureheads are running the show.
around 2035 is when the US will have finished gearing up to confront China, and what victory looks like in that conflict will doubtlessly shape the next decade to a large degree. I doubt China will dismantled given it's size and internal security, but the strategic destruction the US can inflict would be devastating. Even if they do sink the US navy, if they don't win fast, then they've lost.
Ten years ago, the US couldn’t win a conflict with China without using nukes. We have seen the real peak strength of the American military come and go. They can inflate numbers with a draft and throw money at it, but capital won’t accede to their wishes.
America couldn't win a conflict with Vietnam, it still kneecapped the region and set them back decades.
On one hand- yes. On the other hand, this time around honestly- if China and whoever else gets dragged into the war, does not ensure to strike an eye-for-an-eye (MAD) humanity may as well give up on existence altogether. The US cannot meaningfully threaten China without resorting to MAD- hell, they can't continue squatting on Taiwan if push comes to shove without MAD- and China remains capable of hitting the US back just as hard (without MAD)- just... MAD is really the only option the US has.
Which is to say IMO, if the US wants to try their luck, they should be yeeted out of existence. As someone who (while not AmeriKKKan) would almost certainly go down with the ship ATM, as someone whose immediate family and loved ones would as well- this is how I see it. All the west has left (as an oversimplification but not by much- and their system is absolutely defunct and then some) is terrorism, and the world cannot back down to it no matter what.