Bulletins and News Discussion from May 6th to May 12th, 2024 - The Nagorno-Karabakh Nosedive - COTW: Armenia
Image is of Stepanakert, essentially the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is now a ghost city, and Azerbaijan has recently torn down the parliament building and various other important places. Sourced from this article.
A quick look at Armenia's geographical position reveals the folly of trying to create some kind of Western outpost. With a hostile Azerbaijan to their east, a very unfriendly (albeit NATO member) Turkiye to their west, an ascendant Iran to their south, and Russia not far from the action, there is little hope of doing much more than causing a little chaos in the hopes it'll momentarily distract Russia while it makes inroads most everywhere else on the planet. The political situation appears miserable for Pashinyan, but there isn't really a popular alternative to take the reins. A truly cursed situation.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Armenia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
He also emphasized that Russo-Cuban relations are based on mutual friendship and respect.
On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel held a meeting at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow
The Russian leader thanked Diaz-Canel for attending the Victory Day Parade and emphasized that Cuba-Russian relations are based on mutual friendship and respect.
"The Soviet Union and modern Russia have always stood by the Cuban people in their struggle for their interests and their homeland," Putin said, recalling that Cuban citizens also fought alongside the Red Army during the Great Patriotic War.
"We remember this and will always treat with great respect those who stood alongside our parents and grandparents, shoulder to shoulder, fighting together against Nazism," he stressed.
"We will always support the Cuban people and oppose U.S. attempts to restrict Cuba's development through sanctions and restrictions. However, for decades, the Cuban people have fought against them and feel strong," he said.
For his part, the Cuban president handed Putin a letter of congratulations sent by the revolutionary leader Raul Castro on the occasion of his inauguration as president of Russia.
"Our visit to Russia concluded with a very pleasant meeting with Vladimir Putin, the president of this great country. It was a warm exchange between friends who are well aware of the challenges their nations face and are committed to mutual support," Diaz-Canel said, adding that Moscow can always count on Havana's support.
"Cuba constantly condemns the geopolitical manipulation carried out by the U.S. government," he said, reaffirming rejection of the threat posed by NATO's approach to Russian borders.
The Soviet Union and modern Russia have always stood by the Cuban people in their struggle for their interests and their homeland
So help them! These are two of the most heavily sanctioned nations on earth, and Cuba is suffering far more from it. I hope Russia at least can extend some help now that they're already cut off from most Western financial institutions. What's left to lose by letting the Cubans import pacemakers or something?
I’ll remind you that before 2022, Russia doesn’t even have the capacity to make aluminum cans for soft drinks. It exports aluminum as raw materials overseas and purchase the manufactured cans back. This is how backward Russia’s industries are today. They are only starting to ramp up their own manufacturing capacity, and sluggishly so, after the war in Ukraine started.
It is by all accounts a resource colony and barely an industrialized power, except for the Soviet military industrial legacy.
Russia’s hands are full right now. They hardly have the capacity to replace all the imports that have been lost to the sanctions.
Look at their efforts to become self sufficient and have hope! It may not be today, but Russia some tomorrow away is going to have that capacity to send aid. Cuba and Russia remain friends despite the fall, once Russia is standing upright they can help lift Cuba up. Just not yet.
Question: Since 1991, Russia has forgiven debts worth $140 billion. Why does our country remit so much debt? This money could have been used to increase the pensions for our war veterans. We help Greece extinguish fires while they expel our diplomats. Isn’t it time we switched to pragmatic and real politics?
Sergey Lavrov: First, regarding 140 billion. You need to remember what the situation was like at the time these debts were calculated: the USSR was not part of the international financial system, the rouble was not integrated into this system and the rouble’s exchange rate was simply set by the USSR State Bank. Some may remember that according to that exchange rate the dollar cost 63 kopecks. If you use this exchange rate to calculate the amount of debt the USSR lavishly handed out, primarily, to the countries fighting colonialism to achieve independence – it was largely military aid – of course, the result will be a far cry from reality.
Second, the loans given to those fighting for independence were not, by definition, backed by any international agreements. This was largely money given to non-governmental entities.
Third, as I understand it, a considerable part of this amount constitutes debt owed by former Soviet republics. Russia did repay these debts in keeping with the agreement that was called “zero version.” Under this agreement, Russia committed to repay the debts that the former Soviet republics that received independence owed at the time in exchange for all foreign property that the USSR had abroad.
I do not believe the amount inherited from the USSR that you are talking about could have resolved any domestic issues or could have been a significant factor in helping settle them because these debts were, to my understanding, over 90 per cent unrecoverable. There are still some outstanding debts that have remained since Soviet times. Several years ago we forgave some African countries’ Soviet-era debts worth several billion dollars that we would never have been able to collect because it is very hard to legally prove what the exchange rate was at the time the loans were given.
I have always maintained that debt cancellation is the only correct play against US monetary imperialism, and Russia seems to be the only country that gets it. China has a lot of leverage (far more than Russia ever could be) but they have been playing their cards very conservatively and very reluctantly.
Do you now see why so many poor Global South countries like Russia and Putin?