Bulletins and News Discussion from June 10th to June 16th, 2024 - Havana Derangement Syndrome - COTW: Cuba
Bulletins and News Discussion from June 10th to June 16th, 2024 - Havana Derangement Syndrome - COTW: Cuba
Image is of Cuba's National People's Power Assembly.
The most recent geopolitical news around Cuba is the arrival this week of four Russian vessels, including a nuclear submarine - not carrying any nukes, (un)fortunately - to Havana. This will, in Putin's words, merely be a visit celebrating historical ties and no laws are being broken. Nonetheless, it's not hard to imagine how American politicians and analysts are taking the news, especially as it comes shortly after Russia promised an "asymmetrical" response to further NATO involvement in Ukraine (notably, officially allowing the use of US weapons such as missiles in Russia, albeit in a small part of Russian territory, near the border).
Meanwhile, China has been increasingly co-operating with Cuba to overcome the economic hardship created by American sanctions. China has recently re-allowed direct flights to Cuba and has recently donated some small photovoltaic plants as part of an initiative to eventually boost the Cuban energy grid by 1000 MW - and any electrical expansion helps as Cuba is plagued by blackouts which last most of the day. Additionally, the EU has made meaningful contributions to Cuba's energy situation too, with large solar installations. Hopefully, the Belt and Road Initiative will help preserve the Cuban revolution against reactionary forces as the power of US sanctions wanes. The proximity of Cuba to the United States makes this much more challenging than it would be for countries elsewhere, however. Similarly to the situation in Mexico, it seems unlikely that the US's influence over Cuba will massively diminish for decades to come unless there is a catastrophic internal collapse in the American authoritarian regime.
The Havana Syndrome will continue until American morale declines.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Cuba! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Greek results for the Euro-elections are both more of the same and somewhat unique.
On the communist side (there actualy being one is already somewhat unique) KKE ,love it or hate it (or more likely be somewhere in between), continued their steady rise hitting 9.3% (vs 7.5% in the parliamentary/presidential elections) last year and basicaly double the ~5% that they were stuck at over last decade. Yeah they arent on the forefront on LGBT issues to say it lightly (tho still not to be lumped with patsocs culture warriorism, spewing hate or Russian communist party levels of social conservativism) and yeah they weirdly have almost leftcom/maoist positions regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and China. But they have survived the waves of eurocommunism, opportunism,reformism, gladio and anti-communism that have swept through the European communist and socialist scene in the last 50 years and stand today, despite their issues, as arguably the most popular and active hardline ML party in "western democracies".
On the "center-left" /socdem side more of the same. Syriza after having eaten shit and imploded in the last 1-2 years continues to stay in useless territory and got ~15%. Tsipras resigned last year and then they literaly imported some better looking Pete Buttigieg - Beto O'Rourke dude from the US but with worse politics (reaganite, campaigned for Biden in 2008) and made him the leader. Like look at this . That caused some demsocs to split and form a new party "New Left" that got 2% or smth. PASOK continues to do nothing after being Pasokified and sits at like 11-12%. Sad to see since they had a kinda cool socdem regime aura in the 70s and 80s. Varoufakis continues enjoying his internationalist demsoc larp party at ~2.5% outside of parliament.I dont hate him or anything but like 90% of Greece does ,mostly unfairly tbh, but good luck with that.
Reminder that Greece also has an active and well organized anarchist and communist sphere outside of KKE and KKE aligned orgs and unions that doesnt care or doesnt do much in elections either but is also a factor in the relative balance of politics
On the far right there has been some rise but im convinced its much less so overall compared to most of Europe. The voter/supporter pool for far right, hard-nationalist/conservative parties has been at 15-20% for a decade now. Its just that there hasnt been a unified movement or party to exploit that and coalesce that support around them and even break through. Far right is actualy quite fractured in Greece with multiple ultra orthodox, alt right grifters or neonazi parties capturing 1-5% of the votes each and the rulling New Democracy party (not Maoist sadly, 80% Macron - 20% Le Pen) also capturing some % of the fascist base. And they cant as of now act together or have coherent plans and coalitions. In these elections a far right party Greek Solution (that despite its name isnt really commited golden dawn ultra-nazi as much as grifter-orthodox fascists) did managed to rise at 9.3% , matching KKE, but i believe its mostly due to circumstance. They were at 4.5% in last years elections and another fascist party that got 4.5% as well was banned from running now because of connections/being a continuation to Golden Dawn. So they got a bunch of those votes and some ultra nationalists moved from New Democracy to them as well. Overall i still see it as yet another reconfiguration of the existing far right base that just moves to and from different parties as if they are communicating vessells for the better part of a decade now and especially after golden dawn's ban. For example a completely evangelical tier orthodox brainworms party also got 3% and some alt right grifter chick run on incel stuff and being somewhat hot and also got 3%. These parties wont exist in 5 years time and others will have taken their place. Lastly i have to note that in the north part of Greece , Macedonia etc, far right is seeing a surge and the communist party despite also gaining, is being left behind. Thats mostly a function of the whole North Macedonia name debacle that has left many, many Greek nationalists there absolutely seething and maybe something of a movement may be forming.
Lastly the rulling party , New Democracy, got ~29%. A notable drop from last years elections where it dominated with 40%. A lot of their base probably didnt care ,they are increasingly unpopular for sure and also like i said some of their far right and nationalist base moved towards smaller more hard line far right parties in this occassion since to protest against some of the Ukraine war support, Macedonia name stuff and Turkey dialogue stuff . They'll prbably be back tho
KKE sounds like the kind of party that could be pushed into sufficiently good positions by the right cadres making the effort?
probably yeah, and tbf other than those issues i mentioned they are more so 70% good -30% bad in most other stuff from an orthodox Marxist-Lenninist perspective.
On foreign policy matters idk if much shift may happen but it doesnt matter that much. They are still way more anti-Nato than anything else despite their "China and Russia secondary imperialist powers" positions. I have been personaly been told by one the highest ranking party member in foreign relations matters that "yeah of course we will be expanding cooperation with China, Iran ,Russia etc if the party comes to power or win elections and likely preemptively expand party ties with the CPC before that. If they are still chill with us after we Nationalize most of the stuff Chinese multinationals own in Greece that is. Cause from the other side we can only expect a sanctions regime"
On LGBT issues for example a big factor imo was that the party for decades had a much stronger support and membership in older age groups and in ereas outside the biggest 1-2 urban centers (Athens and Thessaloniki). So there wasnt some upwards pressure from inside the org and voter base to "modernize" in those fronts. But their youth league and support has been marketably on the rise in the last couple of years and they are seeing their best electoral gains nationaly in Athens. There will most likely be some incremental change towards better positions going forward instead of a massive shift or realization of "oh we were wrong sorry" and that has already happened in the discorse and analysis within the party compared to lets say 5 years ago. Thats why their positions are so confused and all over the place at the momment. Progressive gender analysis and positions coexist and are expressed together with more conservative understandings that are sadly also boosted by a "reactionary" opposition to US rainbow imperialism and by the trends in capital and neoliberalism subsuming a lot of the LGBT messaging and movement. Those contradiction has led to the party not voting in favor of the Right Wings government's gay marriage and adoption bills,but mostly focusing on their opposition to certain parts of the bill from a socioeconomic PoV that has merrit but in no way excuses not supporting those bills. Stuff like their opposition to the existance and expansion of surrogate motherhood under capitalism , their opposition to economic and social benifits for Gays (as well as straights ) being tied to marriage to begin with. So they can in the same time be for stronger anti-discrimination laws against LGBT people , free trans healthcare etc etc but also force themselves to take nitpicky and incoherent positions on Gay Adoption or Marriage but not necessarily outwardly homophobic ones