Bulletins and News Discussion from June 10th to June 16th, 2024 - Havana Derangement Syndrome - COTW: Cuba
Bulletins and News Discussion from June 10th to June 16th, 2024 - Havana Derangement Syndrome - COTW: Cuba
Image is of Cuba's National People's Power Assembly.
The most recent geopolitical news around Cuba is the arrival this week of four Russian vessels, including a nuclear submarine - not carrying any nukes, (un)fortunately - to Havana. This will, in Putin's words, merely be a visit celebrating historical ties and no laws are being broken. Nonetheless, it's not hard to imagine how American politicians and analysts are taking the news, especially as it comes shortly after Russia promised an "asymmetrical" response to further NATO involvement in Ukraine (notably, officially allowing the use of US weapons such as missiles in Russia, albeit in a small part of Russian territory, near the border).
Meanwhile, China has been increasingly co-operating with Cuba to overcome the economic hardship created by American sanctions. China has recently re-allowed direct flights to Cuba and has recently donated some small photovoltaic plants as part of an initiative to eventually boost the Cuban energy grid by 1000 MW - and any electrical expansion helps as Cuba is plagued by blackouts which last most of the day. Additionally, the EU has made meaningful contributions to Cuba's energy situation too, with large solar installations. Hopefully, the Belt and Road Initiative will help preserve the Cuban revolution against reactionary forces as the power of US sanctions wanes. The proximity of Cuba to the United States makes this much more challenging than it would be for countries elsewhere, however. Similarly to the situation in Mexico, it seems unlikely that the US's influence over Cuba will massively diminish for decades to come unless there is a catastrophic internal collapse in the American authoritarian regime.
The Havana Syndrome will continue until American morale declines.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Cuba! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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US-EU spat derails push for $50B Ukraine loan using Russian assets
“What Washington is proposing is, 'We [the U.S.] take a loan, Europe takes all the risk, you [Europe] pay the interest, and we [the U.S.] use the money for a U.S.-Ukraine fund,'” said one senior European diplomat. “We might be stupid but we’re not that stupid.”
Fresh from a bruising European election last weekend, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will tell President Joe Biden they reject the American proposal for Europe to act as sole guarantors for the loan, according to conversations with six senior diplomats and officials.
There is palpable anger within European governments about the U.S. plan, which, they argue, would mean they would be on the hook to pay the loan back if anything goes wrong ― while American companies could potentially benefit the most from the Ukraine reconstruction contracts that would flow from it.
The key question is who legally will be liable to pay the loan back if Hungary’s Russia-friendly government vetoes the prolongation of EU sanctions against the Kremlin, which legally have to be renewed every six months — thereby unfreezing Russia’s central bank assets.
Other risks include Russian assets no longer earning enough or being handed back to Russia under a peace settlement.
The U.S. suggested that European countries should bear the brunt of the financial risk if any of this happens, by proposing that countries should be liable in proportion to the amount of frozen Russian assets that they hold.
Washington said that guaranteeing the loan with U.S. taxpayers’ money would mean involving Congress in ratifying the agreement, according to three officials. This comes with fears that opposition from Republican lawmakers will extend the process past November's presidential election.
While EU officials are receptive to these concerns, they’re reluctant to agree to something that comes at the expense of their own taxpayers.
“If it was the other way around, they would say we are crazy,” said an EU official about the U.S. proposal.
Europe and America are also fighting about control over the loan and influencing how the money is spent, senior European officials said.
If Washington — or institutions with major U.S. stakes such as the World Bank — dole out the money, American companies are in pole position to profit, they said
said one senior European diplomat. “We might be stupid..."
Finally! a politician that tells the truth
The US wants guarantees that the interest is secure. Washington’s concerns are heightened because the decision to freeze assets has to be unanimously renewed every six months by all EU member states. Should any EU government oppose the scheme, such as Hungary for example due to its ties with Russia, then the US would find itself without the money to repay the loan.
So much accounting gymnastics.
US wants to take a "loan" for Ukraine with Russian assets (which is also likely composed of US Treasuries) as collateral to give to Ukraine. So, is the Treasury taking exisiting US Treasuries to give Dollar loans?
Like just create the money instead of doing this nonsense. It's the same thing either way, Ukraine gets weapons, the MIC see their wealth increase.
The only reason US is doing it this way is so that it can pretend the Ukraine loans aren't a "burden" on the "taxpayer", something the Republicans will take advantage of.
Europe and America are also fighting about control over the loan and influencing how the money is spent, senior European officials said.
So it's a question of which country's bourgeoisie benefit.
If Washington — or institutions with major U.S. stakes such as the World Bank — dole out the money, American companies are in pole position to profit, they said.
High confidence.