The biggest question for Biden is whether the damage is permanent. Many voters have not yet tuned into an election that’s still more than four months away.
Starting with a declaimer of being fairly far left...
Biden is not looking like he has a winning chance. He's barely leading in national polls, but those polls are misleading, as, because of the senate, democrats typically need to win by 2.5-3 points in order to have a shot at the electoral college. So he's behind there.
He's behind in several key states where he needs to win. If you count states where he's down 2 points or less, he BARELY has enough to win. Can't miss a single state.
The debate hurt Biden. This is not a logical contest, it's a popularity one, and Biden is not doing well. I think he's done some great policy things, but that's not how people vote. Democrats have to learn that it's not enough to be "right" if you're going to lose elections.
Saying polls are garbage is a straight bad take. The differentiation between polls is immense, and people treat them like they are just one thing.
They do adjust, and if you don't know that I'm not likely to believe you have the knowledge to say they are bad.
Polls are still very indicative. Democrats are not magically beating them by 9 points. That's just flatly untrue, unless you are just rolling every poll together with no regard for methodology, funding source, sample size, or track record.
Would be a great move to pick someone new but right before the nomination. Lots of independents want anyone but these 2 old dudes. If either party picked a different candidate, I think they would easily take the White House.
(Unlikely) but if the dems really just had biden out there to take the brunt of trumps attacks up until the nomination, then a majority of trumps platform (biden bad) goes out the window, while the dems platform (trump bad) gets to remain in place.
Would be a galaxy brain strategy but I don’t think anyone in politics would be smart enough to pull something like that off.