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Presidential Poll Numbers as of 8/28:

I run this analysis in Politics whenever there's a post about "New national poll says..." but we don't allow self posts over there so it's always buried in a comment.

National polls are useless because we don't have national elections. Red states are gonna red state and blue states are gonna blue state.

So knowing that, here are the current results for states that are in play:

Let's see the state breakdown now:

Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico: Harris +8/+11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/

Texas: Trump +3/+5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

Georgia: Harris +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

Florida: Trump +3/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/

Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5

Michigan: Harris +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

So... changes from last time...

Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.

Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.

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12 comments
  • no matter who wins we the people are going to lose

    neither candidate has come out strong on worker rights, women's rights, healthcare, or anything that would help the people

    this election no matter who wins will only help the elites

    Republican Centrist vs Republican Fascist

    • Workers rights? The CWA disagrees:

      https://cwa-union.org/kamala-harris-champion-working-people

      "Vice President Harris serves as the Chair of the White House Task Force on Worker Organizing and Empowerment. In doing so, she has helped advance dozens of policies to make it easier for workers to organize, to raise wages, and to strengthen workers’ bargaining power.

      In the Vice President’s role as the president of the United States Senate, Harris has cast tiebreaking votes to confirm CWA’s former counsel Jennifer Abruzzo to serve as General Counsel of the National Labor Relations Board, to pass the Inflation Reduction Act to create green manufacturing jobs and to lower our prescription drug costs, and to pass the American Rescue Plan to save our pensions and to dig the economy out of the recession that she and President Biden inherited.

      In 2023, Harris cancelled an appearance at an event to avoid crossing a picket line, and changed her hotel reservations for another event to avoid crossing a picket line held by the hotel’s workers.

      Vice President Harris has personally met a number of times with CWA leaders and CWA rank-and-file members to hear our concerns and make sure that the White House’s agenda supports our needs."

      Women's rights? Pretty sure her stance on restoring reproductive rights is clear:

      https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/12/19/vice-president-kamala-harris-launches-reproductive-freedoms-tour/

      Which, you know, is also health care.

      • We’ll accelerate implementation of our historic Investing in America agenda to bring back manufacturing and rebuild our infrastructure. We’ll keep fighting to pass the PRO Act, to give everyone the right to organize for better pay, benefits, and working conditions and we’ll finally raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour. And, we’ll keep expanding access to capital so that Americans can start and grow small businesses.

        https://democrats.org/news/dnc-releases-2024-party-platform-draft-outlining-historic-record-and-bold-agenda-for-president-biden-and-vice-president-harris-to-finish-the-job/

        sounds like the Democrats are pushing for low $15 an hour shit factory work that will keep people in poverty which is a part of what the protesters at the DNC were protesting against

        Today, our economy is growing, wages are rising, and a record number of Americans have good jobs. But for too many hard-working families, the cost of living can still feel too high. Lowering costs is Democrats’ number one economic priority. We have more to do, but our actions are already putting thousands of dollars a year back in people’s pockets. We are saving millions of Americans an average of $800 a year on their health care premiums. We capped the price of insulin at $35 a month for nearly 4 million seniors on Medicare and are lowering the price of commonly used drugs for diabetes and heart failure. We capped rent hikes in 2 million apartments and are going after unfair rental “junk fees.” Through record energy production of clean energy, oil, and gas, we’ve lowered prices at the pump for American families. We approved the cancellation of $167 billion in loans for nearly 5 million borrowers, including a million public servants such as teachers, nurses, and police, and are expanding registered apprenticeships and job training opportunities.

        President Biden and Democrats will continue to lower the cost of health care, building on President Biden’s historic action allowing Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices by growing the list by at least 50 drugs a year. And he will stand firm to protect Social Security and expand benefits, and make Medicare permanently solvent by making the wealthy pay their fair share in taxes. Democrats will guarantee affordable, quality child care to millions of working families for less than $10 a day per child. And, we’ll lower housing costs by building or renovating 2 million homes nationwide. We will take on corporate greed by banning “junk fees” and holding companies accountable for price gouging.

        https://democrats.org/news/dnc-releases-2024-party-platform-draft-outlining-historic-record-and-bold-agenda-for-president-biden-and-vice-president-harris-to-finish-the-job/

        yes sure this will help but again without high enough wages and access to care what good does lowering prescription costs and adding more houses do

        we already have homeless people here who are unable to access healthcare or have some kind of housing option and who never had high enough wages

        this might help seniors out a bit but still again does not cover the root issues such inadequate food at not up to code senior centers that are poorly staffed with workers that are not properly trained

        President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Democrats are committed to restoring the reproductive rights Trump ripped away and will pass a law codifying the protections of Roe, strengthen access to contraception, protect a woman’s right to access IVF, and support access to FDA-approved medication abortion. Democrats will also keep fighting to address racial inequities, from health care to education to housing.

        https://democrats.org/news/dnc-releases-2024-party-platform-draft-outlining-historic-record-and-bold-agenda-for-president-biden-and-vice-president-harris-to-finish-the-job/

        no mention of a solid plan as to how and they did nothing in fifty years to codify Roe v. Wade so why would suddenly have the gumption to do so now

        have more incentive not to restore rights and keep using this as a funding tool and something to vaguely mention on the Democrat platform page

        Harris and Walz are just more right centered politicians being shoved down the US citizens' throats

        • Any increase over the bullshit $7.25 federal minimum now is a win, but yes, the $15/hr. was a discussion for 10 years ago, it needs to be more like $20-$25 now.

12 comments