BarbarismYou're viewing a single thread.
Personally i think its gonna be both. A lot of places will collapse into barbarism/warlordism/fascism, and there will be a few places that manage to be stable under socialism, and those places will slowly over the course of centuries carry the rest of humanity to a better future kicking and screaming. If you live in the west tho i think a period of barbarism is inevitable. I also think we are heading toward a mass depopulation event globally. I expect by 2100 the global population will be much lower than now, and be mainly concentrated in the few socialist countries that survive with most of the world being very low population. The main reason i think people will die is famine. I do think we will see some nuclear exchanges but it will likely be limited in scope. As nations collapse that have nukes other nations still around should leap into action to secure them pretty quickly so even in a scenario where we see massive countries like Russia, and the USA collapse i think their nuclear arsenals will remain secure.
South East Asia will probably be pretty stable assuming China doesnt get nuked too badly by the USA so if your worried about your own personal future id recommend moving somewhere like New Zealand, Alaska, Pacific Islands, anywhere close enough to SEA to benefit from their success and potentially migrate there once the storm passes, but far enough away and isolated enough that you wont get caught up in any conflicts during the bad years.
My prediction would be that 2025-2030 we will see WW3 really start to take shape but itll be largely cold with some isolated conflicts for awhile. Then it should be over by 2035 as i expect once fighting really starts itll be fast. I think there is a good chance WW3 ends because there is a limited nuclear exchange which devastates population centers in specific regions, and the horror of it causes people to start negotiating again and agree to peace. Dont think theres gonna be a clear winner, but may be someone who does better economically afterward. Then youll have a decade or two of global economic collapse, this will be when the famines begin to get pretty bad in places that already import food. (If your in Egypt leave ASAP)
During the economic collapse i expect the ash from the nukes/fires caused by them, climate change, and collapse of global trade to all contribute to a worldwide famine. This is where we may see the largest death tolls in human history, and depopulation on a scale almost unimaginable. People really underestimate the power of a famine since most of us havent lived through one, but all it takes is weeks. You lose 30% of our food production and you lose 30% of the population. The range of loss could be anywhere from as low as 15% to as high as 80% global population loss depending on how bad things are. There will probably be areas with tons of food that have no way to get it to other places too. So expect mass migrations to areas that have plentiful farmland, and water. Arid regions that import food will be largely abandoned.
This is of course just my take on it and im just some autistic weirdo who has an obsession with history and politics, but i will say i tend to have a nose for this stuff. Im good at picking up on patterns and like to make predictions based on them and while im usually not 100% on point i tend to get the general idea right. The specifics are what i tend to be wrong on.
and the horror of it causes people to start negotiating again and agree to peace
The horror of anything doesn't seem to influence contemporary politics all that much anymore, at least when it comes to warfare and killing. This part of your prediction is the one that is the most iffy for me. Blood-for-blood escalation, like in the very old doomsday scenarios, seems much more likely to me if nuclear weapons are actually used, even once.
If that happens at least we'll all be dead pretty quick.. My main fear is climate change, because it will first affect the people who barely contributed to it and are already suffering, while the people who contributed because of greed will be safe for much longer.
Capitalism is the root of climate change but the west will probably turn to ecofascism to protect it, I just want the oppressed to see retribution but I don't have any hope for the near future
Nuclear weapon use isnt like the horrific things we see today though. Its something that 1. The powerful are also fearful of, and that they wont be spared from, and 2. Something that does extreme damage not just to humans but to economies, and infrastructure. The horrors of today are squarely placed upon the shoulders of the downtrodden to bear the weight of so those in positions of privilege find it easy to ignore them. But have Los Angeles wiped off the map in an instant and that wont be so easy to ignore. Look to 9/11. The death toll wasnt even that high compared to other atrocities that have happened since, but it has a lasting and profound effect on the western worldview and policy because it effected those who should be immune to the woes of war. In their metal towers, with all their wealth, their blood flowed. Thats what they fear. The same way war in Ukraine caused so many to freak out but war in the middle east is seen as expected. Its too close to home. Once the powerful dont feel safe anymore they will agree to peace.
If any particular individual that has direct command over nuclear weapons, that happens to follow Ayn Rand's delusion of "I will not die, it is the world that will end" and sensed their own death was imminent, would you count on that then?