Bulletins and News Discussion from October 28th to November 3rd, 2024 - LDP Falls Flat / Yet Neoliberalism / Rampages Onward - COTW: Japan
Bulletins and News Discussion from October 28th to November 3rd, 2024 - LDP Falls Flat / Yet Neoliberalism / Rampages Onward - COTW: Japan
Image is from this SCMP article.
Much of the analysis below is sourced from Michael Roberts' great website.
Japan's ruling parliamentary coalition, consisting of the LDP (purple) and it's junior coalition partner Komeito (in light pink) have lost their ruling majority. They have ruled post-war Japan for almost its entire history. The LDP is currently led by Shigeru Ishiba after Kishida stood down due to a corruption scandal, and ties to the Unification Church.
While geopolitical factors (over the cold war between the US and China, etc) may have played a role, by far the biggest reason for this result in the poor economic conditions over the past few years. Inflation has risen and real wages have fallen, with little relief for the working class via things like tax reductions. While inequality in Japan is not as extreme as in America, it is still profound, with the top 10% possessing 60% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% possess just 5%.
Shinzo Abe previously tried to boost economic performance through monetary easing and fiscal deficits, while Kishida ran on a "new capitalism" which rejected Abe's neoliberalism and promised to reduce inequality. Nothing substantial has resulted from all this, however, other than increasing corporate wealth. Innovation continues to fall, and domestic profitability is low, resulting in decreasing investment at home by Japanese corporations. Labour productivity growth has only slightly picked up since the mid-2000s and is falling again. The rate of profit has fallen by half since the 1960s, and Japan has been in a manufacturing recession - or very close to it - since late 2022. In essence: there is no choice but between stagnation or decline.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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In Malaya, the position is even more complex. In the first instance, we are, as yet, a communally fragmented people with neither history nor traditions which can generate emotional factors that would make for unity despite the fact that no common economic interests exist.
in On the Future of Socialism in Malaya (1958)
By kneecapping Chinese capital — the most advanced section of the Malaysian bourgeoisie — [The Malay-Muslim Feudal Class] had no choice but to seek new sources of capital that would not threaten its political hegemony. British capital diminished as East Asian capital — primarily from Japan and the newly industrializing economies of South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore — was becoming an important source of funds and technology."
in Malaysia’s ‘incomplete’ revolution (2023)
I was able to organize my life enough that I have some free time. As a result, I wanted to restart my project of compiling a digital list and references of Malaysian and Singaporean history, with particular focus on introducing the left-wing movements and debates in the country.
The top 2 quotes is the current introduction to the project.
I am just posting this to further incentivize me on finishing my current readings and the project.
Okay, to make this post more news-megaworthy, let me discuss this paper:
The Business Times - 4 Asean members among those said to have Putin’s blessing to join Brics as partners
BRICS leaders have agreed on a list of nations that will be invited to join as partner countries, as the bloc seeks to strengthen its role as a counterbalance to Western political and economic influence, and South-east Asian nations Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are reportedly on it.
A lot of fan fare about this. Odd considering that out of the 4, 2 of them Indonesia and Thailand, also seek to be part of OECD.
I maintain a welcoming but skeptical view of ASEAN member states joining BRICS.
... The Philippines and Singapore are unlikely to join [BRICS].
The joke writes themselves but we all know this already.
The paper then goes on about Malaysia-Russia relations with not much substance.
Another article notes in it's introductory line:
150 years ago, a Russian explorer made his way to the Malay Peninsula, not to colonise the territory, but to carry out scientific expeditions. In the 1870s, NN Miklukho-Maklai arrived in Johor to begin his exploration.
Colonialism is still a large part of national consciousness, even if it get's subdued by neocolonial state narratives.
Not fomenting the collapse of Thailand's monarchy is a major mistake
British capital diminished as East Asian capital — primarily from Japan and the newly industrializing economies of South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore — was becoming an important source of funds and technology
Japan still exercises considerable economic clout in southeast asia, though China's rise and integration with ASEAN will probably diminish it
Odd considering that out of the 4, 2 of them Indonesia and Thailand, also seek to be part of OECD.
Thailand is also a designated/official "major non-NATO ally" of the empire. Still not as interesting as the watermelon seller being on the road to join BRICS despite being NATO's second largest army.
The Philippines and Singapore are unlikely to join [BRICS]
Shame about the Philippines, it's tough being the empire's #1 vassal in the region. I hope it doesn't become the ukraine of the eastern pacific (other candidates: taiwan, south korea - I don't wish for another "ukraine" in general).
I don't think Singapore can contribute anything to BRICS anyway, and the island is probably more useful to certain members if it stays outside. A west-facing hub to "launder" Russian energy and allow chinese companies to bypass restrictions