1d ago

Trump Says Some Treasury Notes May Not Be Real

talkingpointsmemo.com Trump Says Some Treasury Notes May Not Be Real

I suspect this will just end up being something Old Man Trump...

For those not familiar with how financial markets work, US Treasuries are the ultimate safe asset, used as collateral for everything. Even a hint that some Treasuries might not be honored could bring everything to a screeching halt
Musk and Trump are both in the habit of stiffing people they owe money. If markets even suspect that this habit will extend to Treasuries, God help us

You're viewing a single thread.

74 comments

So for those unaware. If followed through this would be the biggest economic crisis worldwide, since the great depression. No hyperbole.
US treasury bonds are the way the US government borrows money. They are most of the debt. They are also the "safe asset". Because it was assumed that the US, being the sole superpower and the biggest economy, would always pay back its debts. Because of this whenever organizations needed to park money super safely, they would use US government bonds.
Around 30 trillion worldwide, that is 1/3 of the world's GDP, is held in US bonds.
You know who the biggest borrowers of US debt are? Pension funds. And you know the biggest one of all of them? Social Security. US social security holds around 3 trillion of US debt. Debt that would suddenly be worth nothing anymore.
In total, around 27 trillion of treasury bonds are held in the US by pension funds, local governments, etc. These would be gone.
Other countries would suddenly lose 3 trillion, biggest of which are Japan, China and the UK. Belgium Luxembourg and Switzerland hold a huge share compared to their economy, and could collapse completely.
But hey, at least the national debt is gone, right?
Well.. No one would borrow the US money anymore. Who would trust them anymore? Likely, this would be the end of the USD as the worlds reserve currency. With that, I doubt military spending could be upheld. The US would collapse as a superpower.
- Every avenue they are speed running self immolation. I'm pretty convinced they want to burn this country down so they can rebuild it in their images. A narcissist and foolish lot. We won't be able to weather this storm. Other nations aren't going to just sit by while we're down. Somebody will take advantage of the situation but it isn't going to Trump, Musk, Thiel, et al.
  
  Burning the US down to divvy it up amongst themselves so they can run their own little technofiefdoms is all but their stated goal. They're talking about network states and crypto-resever currencies, and salivating at the prospect of having entire populations that they control outright to be the grist for their techno-futurist fantasies of being the sole owners of the cyberpunk dystopian mega corps.
  
  "We are proud to announce that we have created the Cyberpunk future from 'Please Don't Create This Cyberpunk Future'."
  
  It's really difficult to tell to what level and for what end they're trying to collapse the country. Is the goal just a grift? Is it to secure permanent corporate governance? Is it to collapse the US for techno feudalism? Is it to utterly annihilate the US on behalf of a foreign nation? All of the above by different individuals?
- God, the US would collapse as a country. It runs a huge deficit, what would it be without the dollar?
  
  Trump coin run through X of course lol.
- Living in Finland, this sounds like a win to me with less repercussions for us than the USA. Wouldn't this make the Euro the strongest world currency, have Switzerland join the EU (along with Norway because of Petrodollars?) + Canada and Australia would be even more interested (because the commonwealth would be weakened), karmicly mess up China, free some Central American countries like El Salvador, speed up independence from fossil fuels, and also stop Israel's genocide campaign?
  I could be wrong, but that's just my understanding based on what you said.
  
  If you think the global superpower can collapse without devestating repercussions around the world, you do not understand how interconnected financial markets are and how much thing like "being able to have food at the local supermarket" depend on things going predictably. This is less "USA knocked off the board" and more "kicking out a leg of the table holding the board up"
  
  Okay, but does that mean the things I mentioned are wrong, and if so, how and why? I'm trying to figure it out here but I'm not an economist. I'm just thinking back to when something similar happened in history with the UK.
  
  So, a lot of the things the contemporary world depends on requires significant amounts of shipping. Like, honestly kind of mind-boggling amounts, and things that you often think are produced nearby go through planet-spanning supply chains. Now, consider that, as a part of the rebuilding in the post-World-Wars was based on funnelling world oil through US refineries, and backing the world economy on US Dollar, much of the world economy is run on the idea that "the US is good for it", and whatever business is done relies by and large on the US continuing to make timely debt payments (this is distinctly not the US paying off debts).
  So, what happens if that stops happening? The whole economy comes crashing to a halt as people no longer have the guarantees they need to do worldwide business. Sure, the Euro exists and it's the second largest reserve currency, but over half of the world does business in USD, but that is a lot of guarantees that would have to shift basically immediately, and something is going to fall through as there just isn't the resources on hand to take it on all at once.
  So, how does that wind up hurting Finland, the Euro and everyone, and not just collapse around them? Because im the mad dash to not be the "last ones out of USD" there's going to be something of the global supply chain that doesn't have somewhere to go, and as you may remember from the issues with the global supply chain in 2020, everything is set up to be "Just In Time" with no one having to keep inventory on hand. But when parts of the supply chain can no longer deliver "Just In Time" that doesn't just stop there. Other parts of the supply chain wind up depending on those things arriving when they were supposed to, and have little to no recourse when they don't.
  If you want to understand how bad this can get, look at what happened in the 2008 financial crisis, and realize that a significant part of what stopped it from being more of a collapse is the U.S. stepping in and saying "the U.S. is good for it" despite how questionable of a call that may have been.
  
  Okay, I get all that.
  But, what you're describing sounds more like Covid lite, and this time the worst hit country is USA, which is more a service and software country that industrialized production one, rather than China, which is mostly material goods.
  I suppose oil yes, but I mentioned how that could also be a positive in a way, and EU has been weaning off oil fast already due to Russia. Sounds like if anything this would really help slow down climate change by crashing oil production logistics of anything.
  It also sounds like the Euro would greatly increase in value, enough to get a good deal of countries to join the EU that have good production and materials as well and balance out the severe deflation and get some supply chains back on quickly.
  Also the '08 financial crises in the USA helped the EU in the long run too.
  
  I think you're vastly underestimating the scale, and underestimating how much damage will be suffered in the short term. It's honestly not all that surprising that you would come to that answer, though, because it's the same mindset that's leading Trump and his oligarch cronies to what they're doing. But both COVID and 08 were backstopped by the US economy. We're looking at the situation where those happen, but the US is unable to be that backstop. Might the Eurozone become that backstop? Potentially, but the severe economic impacts that the US weathered as a result would be borne completely by Euro, which only holds up a fraction of the the world markets that the US. Might the Euro, might Finland, might even you specifically come out on top? Maybe! But it wouldn't be on top of this economy, but one that has undergone a severe change because a simply massive portion of the global economy that exists at this moment would simply no longer be there.
  
  A third of what the dollar does isn't too bad (and better in SWIFT).
  I don't think Trump and his people are thinking much at all though, since doing what they're doing sounds like it would wipe out most of their wealth.
  And I know it would be a different economic system. What I'm asking is, is that actually bad in the long term?
  What has this system brought us? Excessive production accelerating climate destruction (how much will the economy matter then?), dependence on fossil fuels, and a rise to fascism?
  If the USA goes through Balkanization, would that truly be the worst outcome for the future of the world as a whole?
  Or put another way - is keeping the US empire worth the stability of the world economy as is? I think not, at least, especially with how things are going.
  That the EU could potentially come out on top is an optimistic take as far as I can see.
  It'll be terrible for the USA, but I still don't see how it would be terrible for the world. I'm old enough to remember countries that didn't rely on the dollar as much, and things were more affordable for the people of those countries then than now. The biggest influencer to me in economic growth seems to be improvements in science and technology rather than in dollars being used more.
  Maybe instead you could describe this damage for me, then, in a way I can better understand. If you have the time
  
  If you look at the "Great Recession" in 2008. That was an economic crisis that more/less started in the US, but the end result was millions lost jobs, the PIGS debt crisis in Europe, etc.
  That would be a drop in the bucket if US treasures disappeared.
  
  We collapsed the economy of Iceland...op is significantly stupid to think their euro blocs economy wouldn't collapse.
  
  As far as I understand, the recession that occured in 2008 era in Europe at least was in part due to lowered exports to the USA. But this time the EU economy is more diversified in part because of that event, and preparations had already been made because of Trump's first term.
  Again, not an economist, but my understanding is still this wouldn't impact us that much compared to others.
  And even the last recession that happened in the USA wasn't the worst that affected Europe. That was '92.

74 comments