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Where Scoot makes the case about how an AGI could build an army of terminators in a year if it wanted.

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An excerpt has surfaced from the AI2027 podcast with siskind and the ex AI researcher, where the dear doctor makes the case for how an AGI could build an army of terminators in a year if it wanted.

It goes something like: OpenAI is worth as much as all US car companies (except tesla) combined, so it could buy up every car factory and convert it to a murderbot factory, because that's kind of like what the US gov did in WW2 to build bombers, reaching peak capacity in three years, and AGI would obviously be more efficient than a US wartime gov so let's say one year, generally a completely unassailable syllogism from very serious people.

Even /r/ssc commenters are calling him out about the whole AI doomer thing getting more noticeably culty than usual edit: The thread even features a rare heavily downvoted siskind post, -10 at the time of this edit.

The latter part of the clip is the interviewer pointing out that there might be technological bottlenecks that could require upending our entire economic model before stuff like curing cancer could be achieved, positing that if we somehow had AGI-like tech in the 1960s it would probably have to use its limited means to invent the entire tech tree that leads to late 2020s GPUs out of thin air, international supply chains and all, before starting on the road to becoming really useful.

Siskind then goes "nuh-uh!" and ultimately proceeds to give Elon's metaphorical asshole a tongue bath of unprecedented depth and rigor, all but claiming that what's keeping modern technology down is the inability to extract more man hours from Grimes' ex, and that's how we should view the eventual AGI-LLMs, like wittle Elons that don't need sleep. And didn't you know, having non-experts micromanage everything in a project is cool and awesome actually.

36 comments
  • and that’s how we should view the eventual AGI-LLMs, like wittle Elons that don’t need sleep.

    Wonder how many people stopped being AI-doomers after this. I use the same argument against ai-doom.

    E: the guy doing the most basic 'It really is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.' bit in the comments and have somebody just explode in 'not being able to imagine it properly' is a bit amusing. I know how it feels to just have a massive hard to control reaction over stuff like that but oof what are you doing man. And that poor anti-capitalist guy is in for a rude awakening when he discovers what kind of place r/ssc is.

    E2: Scott is now going 'this clip is taken out of context!' not that the context improves it. (He claims he was explaining what others believe not what he believes, but if that is so, why are you so aggressively defending the stance? Hope this Scott guy doesn't have a history of lying about his real beliefs).

    • He claims he was explaining what others believe not what he believes

      Others as in specifically his co-writer for AI2027 Daniel Kokotlajo, the actual ex-OpenAI researcher.

      I'm pretty annoyed at having this clip spammed to several different subreddits, with the most inflammatory possible title, out of context, where the context is me saying "I disagree that this is a likely timescale but I'm going to try to explain Daniel's position" immediately before. The reason I feel able to explain Daniel's position is that I argued with him about it for ~2 hours until I finally had to admit it wasn't completely insane and I couldn't find further holes in it.

      Pay no attention to this thing we just spent two hours exhaustively discussing that I totally wasn't into, it's not really relevant context.

      Also the title is inflammatory only in the context of already knowing him for a ridiculous AI doomer, otherwise it's fine. Inflammatory would be calling the video economically illiterate bald person thinks evaluations force-buy car factories, China having biomedicine research is like Elon running SpaceX .

    • He claims he was explaining what others believe not what he believes, but if that is so, why are you so aggressively defending the stance?

      Literally the only difference between Scott's beliefs and AI:2027 as a whole is his prophecy estimate is a year or two later. (I bet he'll be playing up that difference as AI 2027 fails to happen in 2027, then also doesn't happen in 2028.)

      Elsewhere in the thread he whines to the mods that the original poster is spamming every subreddit vaguely lesswrong or EA related with engagement bait. That poster is katxwoods... as in Kat Woods... as in a member of Nonlinear, the EA "organization" whose idea of philanthropic research was nonstop exotic vacations around the world. And, iirc, they are most infamous among us sneerer for "hiring" an underpaid (really underpaid, like couldn't afford basic necessities) intern they also used as a 24/7 live-in errand girl, drug runner, and sexual servant.

36 comments