Forget the ‘tripledemic.’ The U.S. is headed for a ‘syndemic’—and experts warn we’re not prepared
Forget the ‘tripledemic.’ The U.S. is headed for a ‘syndemic’—and experts warn we’re not prepared
The U.S. health care system is a “sitting duck” in the face of a coming cluster of winter epidemics, one expert told Fortune.
COVID will likely reach levels in December not yet seen this year, combining with surges of flu, RSV, and other pathogens for a winter not so different from last year’s “tripledemic,” experts say.
Raj Rajnarayanan, assistant dean of research and associate professor at the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Ark., told Fortune that the U.S. is a “sitting duck” in the face of a “syndemic” winter.
It’s a term he prefers to “tripledemic,” as it acknowledges the impact of more than three pathogens on the healthcare system, and the need for policies to address the phenomenon, in addition to medical interventions.
“Strained hospital capacities, workforce exhaustion, burnout, a lack of effective therapeutic tools, poor communication, a lack of compliance [with COVID precautions], a lack of continuity planning, and the pervasive influence of social determinants of health” only make the nation’s delicate health infrastructure more fragile, he said.
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But not all experts agree. It’s “premature to say it’s going to be a bad year here,” Dr. Michael Osterholm—director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP)—recently told Fortune. While pathogens like flu and RSV peaked earlier than usual during last year’s so called “tripledemic,” the severity of the season “wasn’t beyond usual.” What’s more, low hospital bed capacity and staff levels were under-appreciated factors that contributed to the crisis, making it look worse than it was, he said.
Encouragingly, while U.S. rates of hospitalization from COVID, RSV, and flu combined are on the rise, they remain below levels seen this time of year during the past two years. Still, they’re significantly higher than those seen in the two winters prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
RSV hospitalizations are the highest they’ve been since 2020, with the exception of last winter. And flu hospitalizations are the highest they’ve been at this time of year since 2017, when they were identical—also with the exception of last year.>>
What’s more, low hospital bed capacity and staff levels were under-appreciated factors that contributed to the crisis, making it look worse than it was, he said.
I mean... isn't that the big issue?
It isn't that people are getting sick. It is that "too many" people are getting sick. Like, in a world with infinite ventilator beds and infinite medical professionals assigned to them, COVID would only have been a labor shortage.
The issue with a "tripledemic" is that it is multiple highly infectious viruses that target different demographics that very rapidly overwhelm healthcare. If there is less available healthcare then the amount of sick people doesn't need to be as high. But it is still widespread death and "long covid" permanent injuries.
I have an academic background so I understand the importance for precision. But this is a perfect example of why the average scientist should never be allowed to talk to the news media.