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Bulletins and News Discussion from April 22nd to April 28th, 2024 - The Scramble For Africa: Green Edition - COTW: Democratic Republic of the Congo

Image is from this Washington Post article, which shows the Shabara artisanal mine, where cobalt and copper are dug out by hand.


This preamble got much of its information from this article in ROAPE, and this article in People's World.

Countries in the imperial core have increasingly advocated for Green New Deals, whose primary goal is to re-attract manufacturing capability to somewhat counter deindustrialization, and then export some of this renewable energy generation to other countries to gain profit. Just as the initial wave of industrialization was built on massive resource exploitation of coal and iron and then oil, this wave is being built on exploiting metals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. The DRC is one of the best case studies on the planet for understanding the new dynamic.

The DRC is, to your average Western country, a resource bonanza. It is the 11th largest country by land area, and contains lithium, copper, and cobalt in massive quantities, famously containing two thirds of the world's known cobalt supplies. The Western world and their institutions swarmed the DRC like piranhas, dismantling the Congo's sovereignty over its natural resources. China was not terribly involved in the privatisation process, but has stepped in to benefit from the West's work - Chinese corporations account for 40% of the production of major Congo cobalt projects (and 15 out of 19 cobalt mines), with Switzerland at 30% via Glencore, and Kazakhstan at 22%. The US, for whatever reason, withdrew from majority ownership of some projects in the mid-2010s, but is now anxious about China's position in the cobalt markets. Western countries in general have spent their time lately drawing up critical minerals strategies both to keep capitalism chugging along in their own countries, and attempt to weaken China, which invariably involves the Congo.

The Congo has attempted to resist imperialist encroachment. In 2018, the Kaliba administration asserted a new Mining Code which raised tax and royalty rates and increased state ownership in mining firms from 5% to 10%, and these changes were bitterly resisted by the West right to the end. Since 2019, under the Tshisekedi administration, the government established the state-owned EGC, which sought to take control over the processing and export of artisanal and small-scale cobalt production, which comprises 5-15% of cobalt production in the Congo. More recently, Tshisekedi is planning to move up the manufacturing chain - instead of merely mining cobalt, they want to refine it there and then make electric vehicle batteries and other such products with it, which would be an industry worth trillions of dollars. But so far, there hasn't been much movement away from having mining exports as the backbone of the economy, and it's doubtful that plans to just keep doing this until they get rich enough to build refineries and factories will work. The profits mostly go to Western countries and have failed to produce significant benefits for Congolese workers, nor resulted in the emergence of domestic industries so far. Reforms will help a little, but only a little, and they remain fundamentally constrained by the markets and the whims of the West.

Meanwhile, war and mass displacements have put immense stress on the country. There are 7.1 million displaced people in the DRC due to various conflicts and mass displacements - most recently, the war between the Congolese army and M23. Hundreds of thousands of people continue to be displaced every few months, and across the whole country, over 26 million require humanitarian aid. 6 million people have died in the eastern DRC in the last three decades, with hundreds of armed groups, both domestic and foreign, battling for resources and territory.


The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is the Democratic Republic of the Congo! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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  • A couple of missile nerd articles. Both of these are written by libs with brainworms of various sorts, though those aren't on full display in either of these pieces.

    The former is simplicius on Russia's zircon missile and focuses on widgets and workings of various hypersonics. In it, he links to an earlier piece he wrote about hypersonics used to attack patriot missile batteries in ukraine.

    https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/3m22-zircon-debunking-misconceptions

    The other is Scott ritter on the dprk's missile development and what it means for nuclear strike capacity vs the US and proxies. It is less about the widgets, more about strategy.

    https://www.energyintel.com/0000018f-09c3-d183-abef-0fc3b84c0000

    I don't care that much about a lot of military technology but hypersonic missiles in particular are an area where the US is a decade or more behind adversaries. I think it is worth understanding the technology and its implications for geopolitical purposes.

    • I always took Simplicus as more of a chud. Don't read his Dark Futura blog

    • I agree with the commenter below the Simplicius article that the author didn’t do his homework when it comes to Russian scramjet hypersonic missiles:

      full comment here:

      It doesn't appear Simplicius did his homework today.

      Few obvious points:

      • Zircon doesn't use any "cap" to protect any Oniks-like intake. It's a part of the launching system and the cap carries thrusters to orient a cold launched missile and is used by almost all cold launched VLS systems, irrespective of where the missile's intake is.
      • as for the intake, we do know how Russian hypersonic vehicles look like. There were two schools of thought, one looking like old ramjet powered SAMs (4 side intakes around the airframe - this was Kholod) or GLL series, which looks a bit like the Waverider and is reportedly the direct ancestor of the Zircon. Pictures of both of them are freely available (funny, I just noticed they're even on English wikipedia).
      • why do GLLs look a lot like Waverider? Because the Waverider is a direct descendant of the early 1990's program when US and France (don't forget that France also has a hypersonic scram jet program, probably even more successful than the US) joined the Russian programs and tested both the Kholod and Igla (what became the GLL) solutions together.
      • why not intake on the tip? Because the tip is essentially crashing into the shockwave and splits it up (Waverider is called Waverider because it rides on the bottom part of the wave split by the tip). You don't want this shockwave crashing into the inside of your engine. It even splits ramjets into two categories - P-800 being the slower one(up to around M=3), which uses essentially the same mechanism as "nose intake" turbojets (ie MiG-21) except it has no moving parts in the engine. Then there is the "fast ramjet" category (1950's Bloodhound, Kh-31, Meteor) which use side intakes.

      As with the Igla line (ie GLL-8), Zircon would highly probably be Waverider-looking, or using a 3rd approach (there's a 3rd way to do this, a sort of combination of both approaches, but I don't remember any functional demonstration of it - maybe I'm wrong). One thing is 99% certain - the intake is not at the front, unless Russians somehow invented another approach which would logically be better than both approaches they demonstrated previously.

      Note: there were sporadic reports of Russian hypersonic developments over the past 3+ decades even in western media (there were successful launches of missile-like vehicles under own power since late 1990's or early 2000's). Something I should perhaps revisit and try to find again, but it's not a task for my morning commit to work while typing on a phone.

      Simplicius’s assertion that the Zircon looks more like Oniks and less like Boeing’s X-51 Waverider does not have a factual basis and is purely the author’s own uninformed speculation.

      Because believe it or not, Boeing’s Waverider is a direct descendent of the Soviet/Russian Kholod experimental scramjet rocket project that became part of the CIAM/NASA collaboration project in the 1990s.

      In fact, NASA even published test flight results of the Kholod: 1996 results, 1998 results

      (Note: NASA seems to have scrubbed these papers from their website, which were still accessible as of late 2023. Fortunately the Internet Archive has a copy of them, which I have retrieved and linked here. Interesting, isn’t it?)

      From Wikipedia’s Kholod entry:

      Russia would continue to research scramjet platforms under the ORYOL-2-1 program that focused on developing the GLL-8 Igla platform. The success of the Kholod program led to the development of NASA's X-43 to further refine the mechanics of scramjets and to develop control surfaces to enable maneuverability at hypersonic speeds.

      This is what NASA’s X-43 looks like:

      This is what Boeing’s X-51 Waverider looks like:

      This is what Russia’s GLL variant GLL-AP looks like:

      This is what P-800 Oniks looks like, which Simplicius thinks is the predecessor of Zircon:

      Interesting, isn’t it?

      From Anatoly Zak’s Russian Space Web’s Kholod entry (a great resource for Soviet/Russian space program, and the author is anti-Putin and a strong critic of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, if that matters to you):

      During the 1990s, when the Russian space program was largely left for dead, the nation's engineers flight-tested a pioneering propulsion system that one day might revolutionize space travel. Known as scramjet, for supersonic combustion ramjet, the engine still remains a cutting-edge technology, while its early history in Russia has ended up largely forgotten.

      In November 1994, NASA finally joined the Kholod program. During the same year, Department 101 at the KB Khimavtomatiki propulsion bureau, KBKhA, in the city of Voronezh took over the development of the scramjet engine, which was now designated 58L. (331) The engine was re-designed to withstand higher temperatures, which would result from sustained operation of the engine in a supersonic combustion mode.

      A NASA-sponsored test mission, which featured an upgraded engine supplied by KBKhA lifted off on February 12, 1998. With the goal of reaching a speed of Mach 6.5, the Kholod vehicle accelerated from Mach 3 to around Mach 6.41-6.47, after successfully firing for record-breaking 77 seconds at a maximum altitude of 27.1 kilometers. (688, 331, 689) Ironically, despite its terrible economic woes in the 1990s, Russia became the first to fly a scramjet vehicle.

      NASA likely used the experience from the Kholod project to build an unmanned experimental aircraft with a scramjet engine designated X-43A. The program was conducted jointly by NASA's Langley and Dryden research centers. Not coincidently, Dryden had participated in the last launch of the Kholod vehicle on behalf of NASA. Record-breaking flights of the X-43A vehicle were first attempted just three years after the last launch of Kholod.

      The summary is, Russia has been field testing experimental scramjet rocket propulsion for at least 30 years, based on earlier Soviet research. As usual, the Americans gave up on the project early, while the Soviets/Russians went on to master the technology (close cycle staged combustion rocket engine e.g. RD-170/RD-180 comes to mind).

      We don’t have the full details, of course, but it is far more likely that the Zircon is a descendant of the Kholod/GLL line than that of P-800 Oniks, which is why the design that we know of bears such resemblance to Boeing’s Waverider, which is itself also a descendant of Kholod.

      Simplicius seems to know a lot of military stuff, but honestly Soviet/Russian space program appears out of his depth.

    • That first article is very good and basically has the same conclusions that our news mega thread has come to on missile technology

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