I know you're just spitballing but putin wouldn't go through that much effort. I think he'd much rather just kill him for real. Prigozhin filmed the Africa video earlier, then returned to Russia for some reason, and released the video claiming to be in Africa as misdirection. Putin got some good intel on Prigozhin's plane and took the opportunity to shoot it down and stop the next rebellion before it starts
putin got him, 100%. both wagner and ru mod have reported that priggo is dead, and you don't just randomly fire a SAM at a civilian jet
look at what happened to any other nationalist critic of kremlin: tatarsky is dead, girkin is in prison, surovikin is under "house arrest", now prigozhin and utkin are also dead, and some others, like rybar, were told to toe the line or else and they complied
this one was 100% intentional. these two other were also intentional, just misguided, it takes several steps to fire a SAM, it does not happen through an accident (bar missile defence, but there are few civilian planes with size of missile, travelling at the speed of missile)
I’m in the option 2 camp. While it is entirely possible that he really did die I’m skeptical and think this is some sort of plan of his. I don’t mean to sound conspiratorial but it’s so hard to believe anything reported by Russia
kremlin and wagner are on opposite sides there, and they say the same thing
putin wanted to show very publicly what happens to traitors, and he did. this is the simplest explanation here; maybe it's delayed response for mutiny, in which case the only unusual thing is why it happened so late. or maybe it's gerasimov's decision, or someone else's in high command, in which case it's more of an happy accident for putin
if it's what you say, wagner and kremlin or army cooperated for what reason exactly? so that prigozhin can command what is effectively russian colonies in africa, while not allowed ever to get into limelight? putin wanted control over this and over pmc, he tried to get there before, and now it'll be much easier