Wagner mercenaries were on Thursday reported to be trying to head back into Russia after threatening retaliation over the suspected killing of their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash on the orders of Vladimir Putin. “The convoys are likely heading towards the border with Russia,” the centre...
This is a greater overall danger than many of you seem to realize. Their leader was a face and figurehead, the real power of Wagner mercenaries lies with the lieutenants. Without him, they are likely to splinter and become more brutal. Some are likely to be hired by the anti-Putin oligarchs, while others may align with Putin. This may result in Russia having to pull out of Ukraine, but that's not the end of this. Even if Putin is slammed out of power, that just results in an internal power struggle with deadly consequences. Those will not stay inside their borders.
I don't know though my instinct says you're overstating the complexity. Doesn't really need to "land accurately" so much as detonate above any target population. Could just even be conventional ordinance with a nuclear payload.
I know it's not simple. Many things need to work in a certain way so they need to be maintained. Batteries must be replaced, systems must be tested frequently and security is very high. This is all expensive and knowing how cheap Russia is and lax their maintenance is, I'm betting many components were stolen which makes a success lunch much less likely.
All true, but it does not depend on this specific group of folks or the inciting incident of their leader's death. Violent internal power struggle spilling across borders is practically guaranteed no matter who the actors are. Even if Putin lives a long life and dies of natural causes, that's coming.