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Bulletins and News Discussion from June 17th to June 23rd, 2024 - Macron's Gambit - COTW: France

Image is of the leaders of various parties making up the French left coalition in the coming parliamentary elections, from this article.

Macron has recently called a snap parliamentary election in the aftermath of the far-right getting a large proportion of the votes in the EU elections. Why exactly he called an election at a point of profound weakness is a little beyond me. Explanations that I've seen range from "He thinks the element of surprise will benefit his party and not others," to "WW3 is about to start and he doesn't want to be leader for it," (which, like, isn't true - Macron is the President of France, not Prime Minister, he won't be unseated by this election and he has said he will not stand down regardless of result), to "He doesn't want to swim in the shit-filled Seine."

While we still have a couple weeks to go, the polling I've seen generally puts the far-right in first place with the left-wing coalition slightly behind, with Macron's party all the way back in third place. Anybody who knows anything about French politics knows that while France does actually have something of a left opposition in aggregate (in contrast to the two wings of the Capitalist Party in the UK and the US, for example), French left coalitions are profoundly unstable and this one will inevitably split - perhaps even before the voting begins - meaning they aren't nearly as useful as they otherwise could be.

Living in a France governed by far right parties would be awful, but maybe they might at least be against the carnage in Ukraine, and sue for peace with Russia? Well, possibly not, if the example of Meloni in Italy is anything to go by. It seems that the differences between the "centrist" parties and the fascist ones truly are not that great, beholden to the exact same set of capitalists regardless of which party wins, and will likely bend the knee to NATO, though they may grumble a lot. Would a left coalition be better on Russia/NATO? They have already helpfully told us that they won't (only opposing sending French troops to Ukraine but otherwise being full steam ahead), and additionally are genocidal Zionists. Western leftists have long been hampered by a dramatically faulty misunderstanding of how geopolitics works, with many seemingly believing "imperialism is when countries interact with other countries" and "democracy is when you can vote between two parties even if widely popular policies aren't at all represented by either of them, and if those popular policies are enacted but it's by a one-party state then that's authoritarian evil" and other such strange ideas, making them terminally useless on foreign issues and pretty unremarkable on domestic issues too. France is no exception.

And just to top it all off, this is coming in a period of further imperial decline for the tattered remains of the French empire, with West Africa rebelling and Kanaky (New Caledonia) deeply unhappy with recent French decisions.

The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is France! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

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794 comments

  • Seen a video of a released palestinian hostage that was kept by "Israel" for some time. He's showing clear signs of torture, both physical and psychological. His eyes are wide open, he's constantly moving and he's having trouble speaking and recalling his own identity. Much love and care to these men and women.

    That just makes me think about the immense psychological damage "Israel" is inflicting upon the palestinians in general and gazans in particular. Even if the bombings and shootings end tomorrow, the damage is impossible to calculate. Lots of people are fully broken inside, they've seen hell with their own eyes. You can't easily go back from that, if at all.

    Death to the Genocidal Entity that is "Israel". They will answer for their crimes.

  • The guy that Biden sent to "mediate" in Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, was born in Israel and literally served in the IDF lmao.

    Not getting good feelings about at all about this Lebanon war talk, it has never felt this close honestly. Spoke with family in Beirut today and it just feels inevitable at this point. At same time there's like a disgusting voice inside of me that almost wants a war, my brain knows how horrible it will be for my country and its people, but the pure anger and hatred makes me blind and I just need to see Israel suffering. I believe in Hezbollah and Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, literally everything that has happened in the last 18 years has been building towards this decisive moment. I hate how conflicted this all makes me feel, Nasrallah's speech today was the closest I've felt to the point of no return since the blessed October 7th

  • The Guardian continues to be on their state department propaganda bullshit:

    Fucking finally! I can't believe we had to wait this long to dramatically escalate a bullshit war that should have ended two years ago.

    How could Putin do this when the west has been so reserved and cautious?

  • Is Cyprus about to be dragged into a war between Israel and Hezbollah?

    On June 19, Hassan Nasrallah, the powerful leader of the Lebanese group Hezbollah, warned Cyprus that if it helped Israel attack Lebanon, it would become a target.

    Israel’s army says it has approved an offensive on Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, and its foreign minister has said an announcement on whether Israel will go to war is imminent.

    This came after Hezbollah released footage it said was taken by one of its drones over the Israeli city of Haifa, showcasing its ability to infiltrate deep into Israeli territory, and sending an implicit threat.

    So, if Israel declares war on Lebanon, what does this mean for Cyprus? Here’s all you need to know:

    Cyprus has traditionally allowed Israel to use its airspace for air drills, but never during active conflict – and it doesn’t look like Cyprus will start now. After Nasrallah’s threat, Cyprus announced that it would remain neutral and not get involved in any war.

    However, the United Kingdom has bases in Cyprus, which it uses to conduct military operations in the region. The UK allegedly used those bases to launch attacks against the Houthis in Yemen. The bases have also reportedly been used to arm Israel in its war against Gaza and south Lebanon.

    “Cyprus’s declaration of neutrality can be viewed as a strategic win for Hezbollah,” said Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University.“This response … suggests an indirect message from the EU that there is no appetite for backing an Israeli military campaign.

  • The Al-Jazeera documentary (on YouTube, presumably on the AJ website too) The Night Won’t End: Biden’s War on Gaza is very good and is a good video to show libs who might be sympathetic but have largely tuned out to what’s happening. CW for the fact that you see the Gazans’ suffering up close.

  • UN food chief: Poorest areas have zero harvests left

    Droughts and flooding have become so common in some of the poorest places on Earth that the land can no longer sustain crops, the director of the World Food Programme’s global office has said.

    Martin Frick told the BBC that some of the most deprived areas had now reached a tipping point of having “zero” harvests left, as extreme weather was pushing already degraded land beyond use.

    He said that as a result, parts of Africa, the Middle East and Latin America were now dependent on humanitarian aid.

    Mr Frick warned that without efforts to reverse land degradation globally, richer countries would also begin to suffer crop failures.

    The Global Environment Facility estimates that 95% of the world’s land could become degraded by 2050. The UN says that 40% is already degraded.

    When soil degrades, the organic matter that binds it together dies off. This means that it is less able to support plant life – reducing crop yields – and absorb carbon from the atmosphere.

    Soil is the second largest carbon sink after the oceans, and is recognised by the UN as a key tool for mitigating climate change.

    “There's too much carbon in the air and too little carbon in the soils,” Mr Frick said. “With every inch of soil that you're growing, you're removing enormous amounts of carbon out of the atmosphere.

    “So healthy soils – carbon-rich soils – are a prerequisite to fixing climate change.”

    Land degradation can be caused by modern farming techniques removing organic content from soil, but also prolonged droughts interspersed with sudden, extreme rainfall.

    Scientists say many extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense as a result of climate change.

    While it is hard to link climate change to specific droughts, scientists have said global warming has made certain ones, like the recent one in East Africa, more likely.

    Mr Frick said that in Burundi, in East Africa, months of heavy rain and flooding had damaged 10% of its farmland, making it unusable for the upcoming harvest season.

    He pointed to a UN report, released in March, which found that cereal crops in the Darfur region of Sudan were 78% below the average for the previous five years amid civil war and drought.

  • tweet

    Israeli press seems to be making a lot of hay about the Beruit International Airport being a staging ground for Iranian weapons. The classic stovepipe straight from military "intelligence" to credulous media stenography, no different than the Iraqi WMD bullshit in 2003.

    They are establishing a pretext to bomb it.

  • I’ve got some excellent news slop for the news mega. I know you’re all going to absolutely love this one:

    A lawyer who has been appointed by the British government to represent the Skripals appeared in court where he acknowledged that despite representing the Skripals, he has not been appointed by them, he has not met them, and in fact has had no communication with them at all.

    Furthermore the British government argues that not only should the Skripals not be called or even allowed to give evidence, furthermore the witness / victim testimony of the Skripals should not be made available to the courts either, except subject to redaction by the British government.

    In fact, the Skripal transcripts will be so redacted, the officials and lawyers admitted in court, it is uncertain what the Skripals believe had happened to them, and why [acknowledged government counsel]

    As for evidence that novichok was used on the Skripals at all:

    The British have presented no evidence of Novichok on the Skripal home door handle; in the blood, skin, and urine testing of the Skripals in hospital; or in subsequent inquest and court proceedings.

    The alleged Russian attack weapon – a perfume bottle atomiser – did not materialize for months until July 2018, when police claim to have found it on a kitchen bench in the home of another alleged victim, Dawn Sturgess, ten days – repeat ten days — after exhaustive police searches of the house had failed to find it.

    Oops the only actual evidence of novichok was just sitting there on the kitchen table of an unrelated person this whole time. Case fucking closed with that chain of custody.

    In addition to not being allowed to give testimony or to have any contact at all with their own legal representatives, it’s now not even clear if the Skripals are alive.

    Sergei Skripal has not been seen in public since the day of the alleged Novichok attack, March 4, 2018. He has not been heard on the telephone by family members in Russia since June 26, 2019. Yulia Skripal was last seen in a government-directed interview at a US bomber base in England in May 2018; her last telephone call to Russia was heard on November 20, 2020. The Skripals have not been seen or heard from since.

    The claim that this is due to witness protection doesn’t make any sense since that apparently wasn’t a concern and they were permitted to contact their family and even give interviews (under government supervision on US military bases) until 4 years ago, but now not even a judge can access even the most indirect proof of life, let alone discover their account of events.

    Assuming they are still alive (and if so, likely being held in some US military facility since that was their last known status), it appears the British government has used their vast national security powers to impose a secretive gag order:

    The judge then asked Holborn to speak for the Skripals. “A line does have to be drawn somewhere,” he began. Then he drew the line the British government is insisting on – nothing from the Skripals since the police interviews of six years ago, and nothing in the transcripts which the government doesn’t want to be known publicly. In short, a gag.

    The British government absolutely does not want the Skripals to talk, not even via a lawyer indirectly or even through the vehicle of their police testimony, not even to a court.

    The British government absolutely refuses to provide any evidence that novichok was used on the Skripals.

    The judge then asked the Home Office lawyer Cathryn McGahey KC to respond. She confirmed there is a gag on the Skripals,

    She then told the judge not to call the Skripals to testify either in writing or in open hearing. “Even if they were to be called,” McGahey said, “different considerations may very well apply to different topics, and the topic of preventability [read MI6] is one which will almost certainly be fraught with difficulty, unless there were very strict control over the questions. And most of the material is likely to be closed anyway.”

    No questions are to be allowed for the Skripals; no answers from them, either.

    Hughes has refused to say in open court that he has verified the Skripals are alive and free to instruct lawyers to represent them.

    Very very odd for a lawyer to have zero contact at all with the people he “represents”.

    Holborn also refuses to confirm that his clients are alive.

    Ominous as fuck for the government to refuse to to even claim they are alive.

    https://johnhelmer.net/british-government-invents-phantom-skripals-to-refuse-to-testify-in-the-novichok-inquiry/

  • ⚡️Sayyed Nasrallah speech SUMMARY:

    The party that should be in fear now is the enemy [not us].

    Hezbollah will continue its operations in support of Gaza and at the same time is ready for all scenarios

    We have a very, very, very large amount of information, and [the drone footage] published yesterday is a small part of many hours that were filmed in Haifa.

    We have info that Israelis are conducting drills in Cyprus & its airports, which the enemy plans to use in case its airports/facilities were struck

    We warn Cyprus against opening its facilities to “Israel”- If it does, we will treat it as part of the war

    All the weapons that were supposed to reach Lebanon have already arrived

    The weapons will be revealed when needed, and we have new weapons to introduce

    We produce some of the rockets we need

    We have a large amount of drones because we produce them

    Hezbollah has a FULL and real target bank inside the Israeli occupation entity, and has the capability to reach its targets

    The enemy must await us from land, air and sea, and we will fight with no constraints nor a ceiling

    The [Israeli] enemy knows that what awaits it in the Mediterranean Sea is very massive

    He could be also including the US in this threat

    https://twitter.com/AryJeay/status/1803458943697789106?mx=1

  • US Government blocks the unsealing of evidence related to the 9/11 attacks.

    A recent letter reveals the US government opposed the release of evidence concerning the 9/11 attacks.

  • Can Europe ever hope to become civilized?

    Is attempting to uplift and civilize Europeans a lost cause?

    Do we have a moral duty to save Europeans from their own savagery?

  • Turkish goods shipped to Israel via Greece despite official ban

    Statistics indicate Turkish companies use Greek ports to re-export goods to Israel following Ankara’s decision to halt trade

    ...

    TIM data indicate that Turkey’s exports to Greece surged to $375m in May, up 71 percent from $219m in the same month last year.

    A second Turkish businessman explained that Turkish exports, although passing through Greece, are still recorded as imports from Turkey in Israeli statistics because they remain Turkish products.

    I am Jack's complete lack of surprise. But there seem to still be impacts on Israel because they are looking for alternative suppliers in Egypt, Spain, and Italy:

    “This parallel trade might continue for a few more months, but Israeli companies are quickly aligning themselves with alternative suppliers in other countries like Egypt, Spain, and Italy,” the second businessman said.

    Not to mention the exports surge to Greece doesn't come close to matching the total figure of exports to Israel: ~$4.788 billion:

    The trade volume between the two countries was $6.3bn in 2023, with 76 percent being Turkish exports, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Turkey had been a key supplier of affordable products to Israel.

    And there are of course porkies whining about muh free trade and all that

    “Instead, we punished all the businesses trading with Israel without even a grace period. Some goods are stuck at customs, resulting in hundreds of thousands in losses for the companies.”

    So am I crazy to think that the Turkish embargo is working as expected despite this seemingly bad news? I would go as far to say it's good news that there are attempts to circumvent the embargo because if there wasn't then it would be a sign that it isn't a very effective embargo. It could obviously be more effective if these companies were punished by Erdogan, or if other countries joined the embargo, but leaking $155 million out of $4.788 billion ain't so bad.

  • Russian Ministry of Defence regarding today's massacre in Crimea by Ukraine with cluster munitions:

    "The US is responsible for this massacre, and they will get an answer. All flight missions for American ATACMS missiles are programmed by American specialists based on their own US satellite intelligence data."

    "Therefore, the responsibility for the deliberate missile strike against the civilian population of Sevastopol lies primarily with Washington, which supplied this weapon to Ukraine, as well as with the Kiev regime, from whose territory this strike was launched. Such actions will not go unanswered."

    It seems that some Russian newspapers are saying that the attack was carried out by US drones from Bulgarian NATO bases, but I haven't been able to find any reliable confirmation of this.

  • Full text.

    Top Israeli generals approve Lebanon offensive battle plans, army says | The Times of Israel

    The head of the IDF’s Northern Command Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin and head of the Operations Directorate Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk approved Lebanon battle plans today, the military says.

    In a statement, the IDF says the generals held an assessment, during which “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved.”

    The top commanders also made decisions regarding “accelerating the readiness of the forces on the ground,” the military adds.

    The announcement comes amid repeated attacks by Hezbollah and allied Palestinian terror groups in Lebanon on northern Israel, with fears of a wider conflict.

    Israel has warned it can no longer tolerate Hezbollah’s presence along its border following the October 7 atrocities, and has warned that should a diplomatic solution not be reached, it will turn to military action to push Hezbollah northward.

  • After nearly 9 months away, USS Dwight D. Eisenhower will return to Norfolk | June 22, 2024 at 3:18 p.m.

    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — U.S. officials ordered the Norfolk-based USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, the aircraft carrier leading America’s response to the Houthi attacks, to return home after a twice-extended tour that’s lasted nearly nine months.

    The U.S. Naval Institute’s news service reported, citing an anonymous official, that the Eisenhower would be returning to Norfolk after combat the Navy says is its most intense since World War II.

    Two U.S. officials, later speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss ship movements, confirmed the Eisenhower had been ordered home and already had reached the Mediterranean Sea. It wasn’t immediately clear when the ship would return.

    The report said an aircraft carrier operating in the Pacific would be taking the Eisenhower’s place.

    The closest American aircraft carrier known to be operating in Asia is the USS Theodore Roosevelt. The Roosevelt anchored Saturday in Busan, South Korea, amid Seoul’s ongoing tensions with North Korea.

    [continues, unconvincingly denies the Ansarallah attacks did any damage]

794 comments