What in the fuck is going on with BadEmpanada?
What in the fuck is going on with BadEmpanada?
I know I’ve expressed dislike for the guy in the past, but seriously? I thought for even something like this, he would at least have a good take on it.
Would have been nice if he cited some sources for the alleged mass murders and disappearances.
Aa for the election I think it is true that it has not been transparent enough to pass the sniff test. But I don't really care about that. When the west cries about electoral integrity it rings very hollow. Because of the sanctions and the material support for Venezuela's far right from America, the election is already not free and fair. Freedom and democracy lovers should ask their government to remove their boot from Venezuela's neck.
GOOD take
Because he's Australian living in a more reactionary state in Latin America, it's not surprising he disparages most AES, even if Venezuela isn't even run by a ML party. In fact Maduro's real policies is more akin to Bad Empanada than he thinks. Brainworms are brainworms, I guess.
His Twitter trolling is funny and he's right about a lot of things but he's also kind of a melt between his views on China/AES and talking about how the left should organise into armed revolutionary cadres while doing 2 hour livestreams about Keffals drama and shit
I always kinda got the impression he’s a contrarian that thrives on drama. Sort of like a breadtube version of keemstar.
"All streamers should be shot." - Bademp
pretty standard incoherent internet maoist, can be pretty cool and then suddenly veers off into purely contrarian anti-aes nonsense that only serves imperialism
I've definitely had issues with some of his previous AES takes but is venezuela really AES? seems like a stretch but I don't know enough to say
Is he Maoist now? He always came across as more of a DSA liberal type to me.
he's always been anti-Venezuela
sounds like some cracker shit idrc
Yeah, this bothers me
Honestly it doesn't quite matter to me if the election victory is 'legitimate'. My opposition to US-backed coups (both dems like Chris Murphy and repubs like John Bolton admit in public that they tried & failed to coup Venezuela) is not contingent on its target being socialist, progressive or democratic
BadEmpanada can defend himself from critique by claiming he's just being factual, but even the fucking Majority Report had more principle in stating they didn't know for certain because they weren't experts on Venezuela, and more importantly putting front and center their opposition to US regime change
When you have Kamala Harris supporters arguing a more principled anti-imperialist position than you, you know you've fucked up
BadEmpanada is the kind of white guy that thinks he understands the entirety of Latin America because he moved to Argentina.
I think his point is supposed to be "don't argue Maduro won the election if you don't actually believe or even care about the genuine-ness of the results". But he's purposefully inflammatory about it.
But he's purposefully inflammatory about everything.
Honestly, please dunk on me, because I saw this video and now I don't know what to think about the Venezuelan election issue. Two days ago I remarked that my only acquaintance in Venezuela had come out in support for the election fraud narrative — and my kneejerk assumption was that this person, being a jus soli US overseas citizen who speaks English as a second language to an advanced level, was probably just peddling pro-imperialist nonsense. And I felt kind of bad about saying this, because even though it was probably true, it also felt like I was saying of someone behind his back that I know better than him about issues that directly affect him. Even in the times when this is plainly true, it is never comfortable to assert this.
But now, Hell, man, I don't know shit about Venezuela, really, right? So could I have been wrong to assume that the only Venezuelan I know was blinded by his own biases? And I don't like treating YouTubers as trustworthy sources, because God knows they aren't, and God knows that people like Bad Empanada have their own biases too — but this video did shake my confidence in the apparent consensus about the Venezuelan election. Because when I just saw ten headlines about election fraud and assumed "Alright, that sounds like it's probably true", then what's to say that the whole image of consensus about the Venezuelan election issue doesn't come from other people doing the exact same thing? But maybe that thought is just parasocial brainworms from this guy calling me a child who needs a hobby, though, that that type of shaming would strike a chord with me who often worries about not being active enough in real-world organizing.
So what really is the "solid dick" about Venezuela right now? Where do the communists of Venezuela really stand on the election issue? Where would you recommend I look to get a better idea of the situation, such that I can feel like I've done my due investigation into the issue? Probably all the articles and videos already shared in the past few days, for starters.
Long story short, there is no solid dick. Nobody knows what is going on in the Venezuelan elections outside of maybe the judicial branch, and even they are taking their time on confirmation.
That being said, it doesn't matter if you think there is fraud or not, we are literally talking about media coming from a country (the U.S.) that tried to do a coup less than 5 years ago and then maintained a government in exile. Observably and historically! As such you cannot take anything the mainstream media, or any of their downstream puppets who get most of their information from those sources, seriously.
Not that it matters. Our opinions in the U.S. have no actual bearing on the matter, in fact, they are equal to your buddy who is Venezuelan, because if intervention is called for, correctly or incorrectly, it's not their ass that will be in the meat grinder. Even if they have family there, their actual means of production stakes are essentially the same as yours.
I'd be more critical of the elections if leftist activists and reporters were reporting that there was something off going on, but that isn't the case at all. People like Alan MacLeod, Eugene Puryear and Rania Khalek among others have been reporting the contrary.
[...] Alan MacLeod, Eugene Puryear and Rania Khalek among others [...]
Ah great, three names in a row that I don't recognize! Now I have to determine whether my unfamiliarity with these apparently notable journalists is because I'm a bad leftist, or if it's actually a good thing that most of the left-wing journalism I read is neither in English nor from the USA.
Yeah, I also got shaken a little bit ngl. I really don't know shit and can't say much about the reality on the ground in the country, and every friend I have in the liberal human rights/charity sphere is always talking about the humanitarian crisis etc. etc. I want to chalk it up to neolib propaganda exaggerating the effects of US enforced sanctions, but there probably are mistakes coming from the current Chavista leadership if the crisis has deepened as profoundly as I'm constantly being told.
One thing I picked up on was the Carter Center not being given access to verify the results this time around but that they had every time before. I'm trying to get a look at some of their old reports to see what they had said about the past, but any comrades have an idea of why this relationship would have been broken? I assume it's lib institution (it's named after Carter....), but a break in such a historical relationship is worthy of note to me.
I mean, having the U.S. quite literally attempting to stag a coup and then maintain a government in exile for 4 years would put a damper on me giving any information to any U.S. affiliated institution, non-profit or otherwise. Edit: There is nothing preventing them from lying about the results. Other U.S. organizations have done it before.
That said, bourgeoisie democracy is a complete farce anyways, I get why BE is being a whiny little child though, it's no fun when the sucdems ban the ML party, but idk why the ML people assumed Maduro would be on their side. Their party runs the street orgs and military, they aren't just going to give them up to some nerds who read some books. Especially if their response to getting banned is literally interventionist theory from the U.S.
Ultimately it doesn't really matter how Maduro did in the elections (though he probably did win them because again, they run the street organizations). What matters is that Venezuela will likely not 'get better' under a neoliberal thumb. Venezuela is between a rock and a hard place. I don't envy the leadership or the populace there.
Maybe it's just me but if there are Leftists who initially took power with popular support, mobilized popular support to prevent coups multiple times, and then continue to keep fascists at bay through some electoral fraud in order to maintain power, is that so bad?
I feel like "democracy" brainworms is something I've been working on myself and, in cases like these, what does it matter if in a given election a leftist Party doesn't win majority? Most of the time, maybe, Leftists won't win majority until they finally take power by force. It doesn't mean they shouldn't take power to do better for the people. In Venezuela, they are currently severely limited and impaired by the US sanctions but it's still a better existence than under capitalist coup conspirators.I didn't watch the video but I'm sure people in Venezuela are struggling right now and this may be why Maduro is less popular, but in my opinion it's mostly the fault of the US. If Maduro can stay in power to maintain the revolution and hopefully turn things around, then that's good even if there was a little electoral fraud.
That being said, I don't think nor know if there was any.
Uncritical support to the Bolivarian Revolution.
The main question here imo is if Maduro and the rest of the Chavistas can still be called "leftist" when they're basically just socdems at this point.
I'm also unsure how things would shake out for standard of living for the average venezuelan if an opposition government got in and sanctions were lifted, even if they ended up privatizing everything. Not in favor of it, to be clear, but I'm not sure of a precedent.
Far from an expert here, but imo you only need to look at the media coverage itself to at least see that the idea of a huge popular upswell is bunk. I've been scouring the reportage for a long shot of these protests, and nothing. How about the opposition figures in front of a crowd? Again, nothing. It's always a handful of goons in a conference room. Meanwhile, Maduro still demonstrably has a huge social base, going by the attendance at rallies, official support from social orgs etc.
There have almost certainly been irregularities dgmw, but, as has been mentioned elsewhere in this thread, the election was hopelessly compromised from the get go. It's just not possible to have 'free and fair' elections under circumstances such as this.
With regard to other forms of suppression e.g. Machado's disqualification, well... I mean she's openly calling for foreign intervention, is collaborating with hostile state actors, and she's a fucking nazi.
If liberal democracy worked as advertised, the opposition would have conceded to a new political consensus by now, and perhaps even be back in power. They could just say, "ok, the nationalized oil stays. Now, why not let us manage it instead?" But they have not ceded an inch on privatisations, and they won't either. Liberal democracy demands that the complete dismantling of the meagre gains of chavismo be on the table at every election.
badempanada is annoying but some of the stuff he brought up is legitimately suspicious. This election was very likely rigged
Having said that, I don't really care if maduro rigged the election. Election rigging can be perfectly fine in some cases and this might be one of those
Not gonna watch the video because I can't stand this kind of youtuber. What points did he bring up? Everything I've seen just points the allegations from the far right to be bunk and the only evidence they have is from a firm that is definitely a State Dep cutout.
Started watching but didn't finish it because at like 3 minutes he outright says "I'm not going to cite anything because the people who support Maduro wouldn't believe any sources anyway". So nothing. He claims that "if you saw the videos venezuelans are being sent from family still in venezuela" you would agree with them. Which, okay, maybe post one then?
without a class conscious organized mass movement any individual person on the internet people look to as a left authority will go insane, the human brain is just not suited for this
not me, I'm built different
He’s the last person to call other people brainless internet children
Not sure why people take the gringo sexpat seriously. People should look up his takes on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They have not aged well at all.
That title, my guy is rapidly becoming Breadtube Maddox
already is*
There very well may have been fraud, and I won't pretend that Maduro hasn't maneuvered in dishonest or outright illegal ways to avoid the Chavistas losing power. And I do think it is fair to say he hasn't managed well and has lost the socialists there a lot of good will which just makes foreign interventionism easier.
However BE's framing of this is unsympathetic. Like he will for sure agree that Maduro being in power is better than the alternatives, he has said as much in the past week, but because of how approaches controversy he can't help himself but frame it this way. It is really annoying and I say this as someone who defends him 9 times out of 10.
I get that it is frustrating to see some leftists utterly dismiss some of the reality in Venezuela or any other country. There is a certain blindspot plenty of us have. You see it when Ortega is mentioned, you see it when Iran comes up. But antagonism is not going to fix that, and certainly not WHILE coup attempts are happening. He could save that shit for after like he did when he talked about Maduro previously. But then again, holding onto power, however better than the alternative electoral options they may be, is harming socialism in the country if this continues. Maduro should stay in power right now, but by god PSUV needs to have a new face, Maduro needs an established successor and one who won't come off as obviously hand picked. I think that is what BE is mostly pissed about, that people are taking tactical necessity and treating it as everything is going well or this is ideal.
But again, bitching about people bitching about other people is not really helping either so this type of talk is useless
that people are taking tactical necessity and treating it as everything is going well or this is ideal.
Many such cases
There is an insurmountable level of disinfo, information deluge, and obfuscation that can be delivered to onlookers.
If only the solutions to these questions were more intuitive... It would be cool to have PGP Vote with local election officials and officials from parties signing constituents' keys to form the web of trust. It's just not gonna happen tho
I would unironically rather watch some tiktok maoist with 100followers record themselves doing pushups in the woods. Idc if he's correct most of the time, his entire online persona is consistently fucking cringe.
The cardinal sin of being too fking annoying
For real.
is that really something you can watch?
If you want to do pushups in the woods so that I can watch, absolutely.
This doesn't surprise me.
He missed with the Xinjiang 'genocide' as well.
Missing is human, but he's such a dick about it and to my knowledge he never acknowledged how fucking stupid he was about Xinjiang - and I doubt he will about this as well.
I feel like a lot of us here struggle to reconcile that
A) the US has a long history of using "freedom and democracy" as a purely cynical, hypocritical and often straight up false (they called Allende a tyrant lmao) excuse for imperialism
and B) sometimes anti-imperialist leaders really are undemocratic, partially as a defense mechanism against imperialist aggression and partially because they aren't very good leaders and their incompetence leads to popular discontent (which is further exploited by imperialists to the point that it's hard to tell where one ends and the other begins)
I guess what I'm saying is you can be glad Maduro didn't get couped and replaced with Venezuelan Javier Milei, you can be 100% against sanctions and cynical US attempts to "democratize" Venezuela, but you don't need to pretend like there was nothing suspicious about this election. Just look at the vote counts released by the CNE on July 29 I mean come on lol, bro is regimemaxxing with these percentages
- those numbers were probably obtained using the percentages, not the other way around and
- the actual numbers were released this last Wednesday
E:formatting
E: they also have 30 days to present the tally sheetsthose numbers were probably obtained using the percentages, not the other way around
Well yeah, that's my point, that's extremely suspicious. The numbers given by the CNE were supposedly the exact number of votes counted so far, that's how election results are presented everywhere. Why would they have access to the total percentages but not the vote count? How would the percentages even be known without also knowing the exact number of votes each candidate got?
Those numbers are actually very boring because it's just someone taking the estimated, rounded percentages and extrapolating using the total number of votes.
In the US plenty of states use easily hacked and tampered-with voting machines and the final results of elections still aren't known for weeks. There are no election observers and nobody is using a paper trsio to audit the results in front of a multi-party (lmao) delegation. Voters themselves are routinely prevented from actually casting their vote due to the lack of an accessible national voter ID system, last-minute polling station location changes and closures, and understaffing/underresourcing that not coincidentally hits opposition strongholds preferentially. On top of this, the incumbant members of the only two relevant electoral parties, both imperialist, usually get to more important R less redraw their own districts to ensure wins by picking their voters.
And yet when a country with a much more verifiable system releases some roundabout stats or takes a bit less than a week to produce a full tally we are meant to believe the (usually evidenceless) narratives of absurd Imperialist NGOs, neoliberal reactionary opposition candidates that say these things every time and before voting has even begun, and Reddit-liberals that know less than we forget in a week?
I love little details that reveal sneaky behavior but so far it has been so booooring.
Those numbers are actually very boring because it's just someone taking the estimated, rounded percentages and extrapolating using the total number of votes.
There is zero reason to do this. What are the estimates based on? Why estimate percentages at all? Just count the votes and give us the corresponding percentages. You're telling me they knew the exact total number of votes but not the exact number of votes each candidate got? But somehow still had enough information to estimate percentages closely matching the final results? Why is everyone pretending this is not weird lol.
I even double checked where the numbers came from, thinking maybe a journalist calculated them from the CNE's percentages or something. But no, the CNE straight up officially said Maduro got 5,150,092 votes. They also don't give the total number of votes, meaning that number was obtained by adding up the results given by the CNE, and not the other way around as you suggested.
You're right that US elections are a sham. If the 2020 Iowa caucus happened in a Latin American country the
would have done their usual seriously-concerned-about-the-legitimacy-of-this-election routine. That's irrelevant to whether Maduro cheated or not though.
Alternatively you can say that he's "not as popular as the election results suggest".
Generally his video essays about Imperialism/ Settler-Colonialism are extremely on point and a great way to educate libs, but yeah his takes on AES can be hit and miss.
In regards to Venezuela, while their nominally socialist government definitely has its problems (even if you ignore the likely electoral fraud, Maduro has suppressed much of the Venezuelan left including the Communist Party, and his policies are largely social democratic in nature), as a Marxist who lives in the Global North, my first position towards Venezuela or any country in the Global South is to lift all sanctions and/ or stop Western intervention for imperialist interests. This is why we have critical support for imperialized countries.
You're surprised that the guy who implied he thought Muslims would and should bomb the New York metro over the Palestinian genocide is a stupid reactionary asshole?
there's no need for muslims to bomb anything. america will just do that to itself and then blame them.
Dude always comes off like a creepy asshole, not sure why people like him, maybe like a "he's our asshole" kind of thing
There's a vacuum of likeable socialists in the West so people make do with these jerks.
He's just another twitter/youtube debatebro streamer who happens to have a vaguely maoist bent. His heart has always been in starting shit for attention, never for socialist causes or education.
He's 70% correct, 30% wrong.
BE in a nutshell
Despite his best efforts to shit upon anyone who even lightly attempts to interact with him (his best and worst trait), his "takes" are very often correct. People might not like specific phrasing and sort of "hedging" around his opinions of certain nations and/or leaders, but if you focus on his core statements, he agrees with most people who frequent lemmygrad/hexbear.
He's not even saying Madura staying is good or bad, btw. He's just saying that as far as he can tell, and from videos and such he's seen from people in Venezuela, the election was rigged. His point (this is me translating from Asshole to English) is: "who cares? It makes sense that given Madura's mistakes, which cannot be blamed solely on the US, people who aren't all that engaged in the political process want a different guy. Any guy. Even voting for right wingers." Which makes sense if you apply that logic to other nations where voters will vote to punish leaders during times of hardship even if the resulting change of government worsens things.
That said, I don't know dick about Venezuela and will be withholding much opinion besides "always be extremely skeptical of US media and state department- but do not totally discount them. They only lie most of the time. Sometimes if truth is more effective they'll tell the truth." Hopefully time will reveal, with proof, the full situation.
the election was rigged
Evidence?
the election was rigged.
What did he mean by rigged? Was it that people didn't actually vote for maduro or was it just that maduro had an advantage?
If anything, the opposition had a wild advantage with all the private media being behind them
I could probably rewatch it, and perhaps he wrote more on Twitter/his YT channel little blog area (whatever it's called), but his evidence seemed to be, imo, circumstantial. Sort of like "normally this thing happens" (release of results and a tracking of how votes happened to my understanding) "it did not happen this time. That is weird and suspicious. Combined with Madura's failures (in BE's opinion: I really don't know enough to hold much opinion), it seems likely he would lose and the hiding of the results suggests wrongdoing."
He also mentioned some state suppression "worse than" the disappearances under the Argentinian dictatorship. That doesn't seem like a statement he would make lightly based on his past videos/comments regarding the right wing crimes in Argentina.
So, if he's exaggerating or just lying... it'll be disappointing. I know people hate his abrasive personality (sort of by design by him to keep people away), but I do find his mainline videos interesting. Mostly just historical stuff about places I haven't read much about or debunking some popular liberal stuff.
It's the 2014 Crimean referendum all over again. Liberals cry about how there's no way 97% of the votes would support integration into Russia. Yeah, there was probably some voter fraud going on and yeah, the presence of Russian troops would push people there to vote for integration. And what of it? The "real" result is probably something closer to at least 60% based on past polling and assuming the Russian and Belarusian population would vote to integrate, which is more than enough for the referendum to pass. 60% vs 97% literally means nothing because the referendum just required 50% + 1 vote.
It's the same exact deal with the election except Maduro didn't even need a majority. He just needed a plurality. So, the real argument is not whether he committed voter fraud, but whether he committed voter fraud to the point where he turned a minority into a plurality. And I can find no compelling reason to say that he did.
The kind Vladimir Ilyich
Didnt he say all hindus (literally a billion people) are fascists
Tankie stocks are tanking hard
hey fucknugget Maduro's party are social democrats. you know, like the three arrows you are using as your avatar
