Bulletins and News Discussion from September 23rd to September 29th, 2024 - The War In The North
Bulletins and News Discussion from September 23rd to September 29th, 2024 - The War In The North
Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don't know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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good morning, comrades. several comments in the rules request thread were about solid links and substantive main comments in order to build discussion. while i am not sure strict rules are required (there is something to be said for making sure people aren’t so concerned over self-esteem or “real leftism” that they stop talking), i do enjoy discussion based on links from good sources. also, there are people who post very good links and videos from telegram and twitter of primary events, so i am going to try and link analysis of things that have happened in the past few days.
as such, for at least this week, i will be posting what i think are the top three-ish naked capitalism articles of the day, along with some commentary. think of it as a bootleg and abbreviated rip-off of comrade 72T’s bulletins. if it looks like i have time for it with work and people like it, i will do my best to continue.
A breakdown of the recent German state elections in Brandenburg, as well as a general picture of the German economic and political trajectory (bad). i think it is worth extending some mental sympathy to BSW, since unlike many other ‘patsocs’, they wish to RETVRN to the GDR, a real and decent place, instead of purely nationalist fantasy. Many of the people involved, including Ms. Wagenknecht, were adults when the Berlin Wall came down. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/atlanticism-or-sovereignty-fight-in-germany-continues-with-latest-state-election.html
A good explanation of how the ocean is getting warmer, and also a good example of runaway warming/ climate feedback loops. i will say that i think arctic-news’ estimation of up to 18 degrees celsius warming is a bit sensationalist, but sources i prefer suggest 7 to 10 degrees if no mass action is taken and we actually get worse at emissions (the current trajectory), which is still “we all die” territory. https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/high-temperatures-despite-la-nina.html
A very brief report about Ukrainian military activity in Syria. Interesting to think about in context of “is this World War 3 yet?” Also a clear sign of Ukraine lacking a plan for victory (in what universe does a base outside Aleppo effect anything in the Donbass?). Since we know that all Ukrainian ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) is USamerican, you have to wonder what Uncle Sam wanted destroyed in Syria last week (and what the entity was doing to that Iranian base). https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukrainian-special-forces-syria
Why should we listen to alarmist doomers who believe in near-term human exctinction? Climate change could take down industrial civilization and billions of lives within the course of a few decades or even years, but the idea that in about 1000 days the earth will look like venus and all humans will die strikes me as unhinged. this guy lowballs it, but I think there’s good reasons to be skeptical about the clathrate gun hypothesis
When i said “a bit sensationalist” i meant “please ignore the header and sidebar”. We should listen to them because the article has sources. The information on the Gulf of Mexico is from the University of Miami. The fact that we are in the middle of a 16+ month trend of the hottest ocean temperatures on record is from NOAA data. The other articles linked by the author are also in line with normal climate science. In my personal view, the most honest way to interpret the current insane climate data is to admit everything is changing and that all our models don’t fit anymore. But we’ll never get models that work if people don’t try to make them. Many of the models used by the IPCC have been optimistic, and there is something to be said for having a pessimistic model in the mix.
A part of me wonders if the author shifted to the “1000 days and we’re Venus” thing because “we are going to lose civilization and the majority of people” has been the scientific consensus for years and seemingly no one is reacting to it. A non-marxist could be convinced that this is some kind of messaging issue, rather than an issue with a large number of people with a great deal of money and power who demand that we do nothing about climate change.
Now that i have read your article, i agree that most of arctic-news’ worries about methane hydrates are overblown. i thought the description of a warming ocean and a warming arctic with an increasing chance of year round ice loss was accurate. i will say this same author has an article about the AMOC that takes the furthest possible conclusions from the first Ditlevsen paper, so they’re definitely willing to err on the side of “the world is ending”. Thank you for the correction
These are fair points. Thank you for the response!