[Berger] It's far from settled but...it seems at least 50-50 that NASA's Space Launch System rocket will be canceled. Not Block 1B. Not Block 2. All of it.
We shouldn't overreact, as Berger points out none of the relevant appointments have been made. It's still a stunning report with huge implications. Here's the full quote:
To be clear we are *far* from anything being settled, but based on what I'm hearing it seems at least 50-50 that NASA's Space Launch System rocket will be canceled. Not Block 1B. Not Block 2. All of it. There are other ways to get Orion to the Moon.
Makes sense if Boeing is selling off its space program. Was cool to see Artemis I launch. Hopefully someone other than Space X can come in and finish the job with Orion.
Boeing actually wants to keep SLS despite selling off some parts of their space division. SLS is still a juicy cost plus contract that they can milk no matter how slow and over budget they are.
I'm not going to do the math on these, but Orion on a New Glenn or the "Bridenstine Stack" Falcon Heavy + Centaur would be cool.
I'm holding out hope that SpaceX doesn't want to do everything. They don't want to build all the rovers, scientific instruments, one-off or low quantity satellites, space stations, surface habs, etc.
In this case, though, getting crew to and from the lunar surface is right up their alley.