Would Kamala Harris have won the 2024 election if Latinos didn't shift hard to the right?

After Donald Trump called every stripe of Latino, rapists and murderers, publicly, often and loudly, More Latinos voted for Donald Trump in this past election than have ever voted for any Republican candidate in any American election ever. Spin it any way you like.

I think white men and white women bear more of the blame here purely by population size.

Don't forget all the people who voted for Biden in 2020 and didn't fucking vote in 2024

"Are we out of touch with our core voters?"

"No, it's the voters who are wrong".

This will probably be how the Democrats regroup after the loss.

Need some titles on those columns. I'm guessing red/blue are the usual party colors, but what is the 3rd?

The biggest factor really is disengagement. There where millions who where involved in 2020 that just skipped out this time.

White people are so obsessed with blaming an optgroup like what about all the white guys that voted for him

ELECTION ALERT: Still Too Early To Know Which Minority To Scapegoat | Onion News Network

The fact that any group aside from white men voted for trumpism is the issue. The disconnect was the complicit main stream media sane washing the craziness. They put racism/homophobia/fascism on the same level as Harris' policies.

Please be careful whenever you ask these questions. It's so easy to blame one single minority group for a widespread failure. Of course analysis of individual voting groups is legitimate, as long as you properly frame what you're doing.

This is a serious issue both because of the connection with racism (i.e., it's the Latinos' fault) and abdication of responsibility (i.e., we bear no responsibility).

As a data analyst, the way the two graphs are setup terribly. There's really not enough information to come up with any conclusions from the charts.

Also, first, there's not enough information from the graphs to determine the situation since it's only by percentages and not population. Second, our system is based on the winners of each state and used by the electoral votes. So overall popular vote isn't going to determine who got elected, even if the chart showed all blue for all demographics.

White people voting for the right is the problem. Like how can we go on here and blame Latinos for shifting when such a high percentage of white people voted for him? Especially when you factor in the population size and not just % left or right.

I am ashamed of my peers.

Whole thread full of people blaming an entire race and sex whether that's Latinos, Latino men, Whites, or White men. You ask a stupid question and you get stupid answers.

White Dude for Harris here. I am sad face

Your narrative is that Latinos "shifted right" but I think this is a false framing- it was the Biden/Harris administration that shifted hard right on its proposed immigration policies and it left many Latino voters feeling politically abandoned.

Look at the Democrats' 2024 immigration bill- it is deportations, immigration quotas, and building the wall - while including nothing "left of center" such as amnesty. It is literally a Trump 2016 wishlist.

To actually answer the post title you'd have to go state by state in the swing states to see if she could flip enough of them to make a difference. I suspect the bigger problem is still lack of turnout rather than any specific demographic.

Democrats failed to solve people's issues. That's just it.

But Americans are in for a hard awakening if they think that in general Latin American population is progressive or left leaning. And that democrats have their guaranteed vote.

Each person is different, of course. And the average doesn't change any person individual values.

But on average Latin American countries tend to have overwhelming conservative cultures when compared with USA/Europe.

This doesn't negate any Latin American person who is progressive, of course. Just talking about averages and the reality that was shown by the polls.

In general Democrats, and any left leaning party, think that because they defend immigrants, immigrants will support them by default. This has been shown far from the truth. If someone have conservative values they will probably vote for a conservative party. That's just it. One person won't become progressive (as in stopping being sexist or transphobic) just because they moved from one country to another. An immigrant is a whole person with their own sets of values, both before and after they migrate, and won't be reduced to "being an immigrant" when voting, specially once they are legally settled in a place and their residence won't be at risk, they will just vote for their values. If they have conservative values they'll vote conservative if they have progressive values they'll vote progressive.

Kamala lost because the Dems didn't show up. Again. Look at the number of votes for 2020 vs 2024. All those "undecided" and "obstainers" that didn't just stay home. They didn't bother doing a mail in.

It's really unclear, to me, what these tables are even saying. What's each column?

I know! Let's blame EVERYBODY. That way nobody is left out and we can just admit we ALL fucked up so next time we can constructively work together to NOT fuck up instead of slinging mud at each other for the next four years.

The Dems would have won if they ran a campaign relevant to the struggling and apprehensive. They didn't. They lost.

Only 4% of Latino men shifted. That chart says Latino men were 5% of the total vote. Harris needed more than another .02%

These are national statistics. They bear no direct relation to the outcome.

Since Trump’s number one message was about immigration, it makes me wonder how Latinos took that message. A bystanding white person might think that US Latinos should be appalled at the way Trump painted Mexican immigrants as criminals.

But then again, maybe Mexican immigrants who’ve been in the US a while look down on those recently arriving, or don’t want more of them to compete with. After all if you are a Mexican immigrant, you probably compete with other Mexican immigrants for work on some level.

So there again we have the failure of identity politics. It’s about simple “me” economics, not “we” identity.

A functional, coherent working class policy would've ticked some of those numbers in the campaign's favor across the board without even having to divide by race or gender.

Decades of under-education could only lead to shit. But even for a cynical asshole.like me, your country electing the best friend of the most notorious pedo, after he tried to overtake the previous election is quite something.

I prefer to blame stupid racist people instead of ethnic groups.

It is also crazy that I lived long enough to see more Latino men vote Republican than white women 😂

If that lasr column is population, latino men are 1/7 compared to white men. So the larger difference is much smaller than it appears. And how did there get to be so many more latino women than men.

Kamala Harris lost cause she's female. And didn't lie promise (that much) to voters. And had the richest 0.5% of US voters against her. This is cause the oldest wannabe-democracy of the world lost his state long ago.

Someone pointed out that a lot of Latinos are effectively white, like Cruz and Rubio.

I don’t think this is what you intended OP but we should be careful not to blame voters here. Trump and his enablers are to blame for what he does, not voters.

That said, this is interesting. The shift to Trump among most communities was tiny, which could explain why most people were so surprised by this outcome. But why did Latinos shift to the right so much? That’s what I’d like to know.

The shift in the other category was also huge. Are those mostly Asian voters?

what's the source of the 'final numbers' because they do not agree with what i have been able to find? and how can they be final when no one knows how any individual voted?

Latino women, I'm available y puedo hablar un poco de español!

😂 ^^ What I took away from the post.

Kamala lost because the policies of the Democrats suck for working class people. And the Democrats are in general corrupt as fuck. It's as simple as that. Just as in Russia, if the system is super corrupt, better make it explicit by making corruption THE system. USA has been an oligarchy for quite some time. Trump 2.0 just made it explicit.

I don't think you can answer that question from those numbers. They are percentages. The difference they make depends a lot on the total population in each group.

Ever cosider that there's a reason why the latinos moved to the right?

I don't think anyone shifted right. They just didn't want whatever it was that Harris was selling.

No one shifted to the right, they just refused to keep going left. This was an election won by the center.