Bulletins and News Discussion from January 13th to January 19th, 2025 - From Mar-A-Lago to Nuuk - COTW: Denmark (including Greenland)

Image is of Donald Trump Jr. in Greenland, proudly demonstrating what he's learned in his standing lessons.

The imperial core is continuing the process of self-cannibalization as the interimperial wars between Europe and the US over resource and territorial control continue. Greenland, populated with less than a hundred thousand heavily exploited people, is the newest territory to fall under Trump's gaze. The main draw is the mineral resources present there, of which it boasts nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum, and much more than remains unexplored under the ice. But the ice is melting, and profit must be made. There is an additional element of wanting Arctic territory to counter Chinese and especially Russian interests and aims; Russia is increasingly eyeing the northern Arctic route as an alternative to more vulnerable routes through the Suez Canal or around Africa, and is investing heavily in icebreakers for that purpose.

However, even if Europe possessed the desire to resist American annexations - and they absolutely do not, at the end of the day - they do not even have the ability. Denmark may, to a lesser or greater extent, make angry sounds and talk about national honour or some such, but their military would be trampled underfoot by even the New York Police Department, let alone a concerted military effort by the US. If Trump wants Greenland, he will have it. This will naturally increase the grumbling in Europe about reconsidering the Transatlantic alliance, and that grumbling may, in the medium-term future, as the American Empire continues its decline, lead to meaningful results. But in the short term, Europe shall have to bear whatever Trump throws at them, for they obviously cannot now ally with Russia, who was the natural counterweight to American interests for decades before 2022.

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China's economy beats forecasts in 2024, braces for trade war
BEIJING, Jan 17 (Reuters) - China's economy ended 2024 on better footing than expected helped by a flurry of stimulus measures, although the threat of a new trade war with the United States and weak domestic demand could hurt confidence in a broader recovery this year.
Exports, one of the few bright spots, could lose steam as United States President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.
For the full-year 2024, the world's second-largest economy grew 5.0%, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Friday, meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%. Analysts had forecast 4.9% growth.
The economy grew 5.4% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, significantly beating analysts' expectations and marking the quickest since the second quarter of 2023.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) would expand 5.0% from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter's 4.6% pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in.
"China's economy is showing signs of revival, led by industrial output and exports," said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.
However, he added, the strong GDP print last quarter may already have been flattered by front-loading of shipments to the U.S. - something that will inevitably lead to a pay-back with production and exports turning down once tariffs begin to bite.
"As exports come under pressure in 2025, dragged lower by U.S. import restrictions, there will be an even bigger need to apply domestic stimulus."
- if china completely lost usa market (lmao that fucking happening), it would lose around 14% of exports and 6 % of economy size, i mean that would be classical recession, but like meh.
  "China's economy is showing signs of revival" what does american economy then show, jesus
  
  I think it’s pretty clear that if the US goes into recession, China goes as well. The export economy is too intertwined with the US. (This is why I keep saying transitioning to domestic consumption and radically shift away from the export industries)
  Again it’s hard to say anything right now because we’re just a few days away from Trump taking office and we will only find out what the heck is Trump really going to do after that. There is a lot of expectations from the market that US-China relationship will thaw after Biden - so we’ll see.
  
  It's not clear at all, it's clear that usa recession dumps whole world into recession due to commodity dropping. If china passes don't be libs challenge, and instead of buying treasuries would just spend like crazy, they could carry world recession through
  
  As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, the problem is two fold here: first, Europe is in recession (Germany just went through its second year of recession) so they won’t be able to absorb the exports. Japan seems to be the case as well. Biden’s Ukraine war has taken Europe out of the picture and the US itself has become the world’s biggest consumer market. The US running 6-7% GDP spending over the past two years (even when they mostly went to rich people) is actually keeping the world’s economy afloat because still enough new money are funneled into the foreign sector.
  Second, China just reached $1 trillion trade surplus this year. And that translates to the Chinese labor creating $1 trillion worth of goods and services that they are not getting anything in return - in other words, free labor.
  If the US goes into recession and consumption demand plunges, there would be no one to take in the huge export surplus that China/rest of the world has. So all the export economies are going to be hit hard - IMF loans and privatization will follow.
  The only way out of this is China raising the wages so they can spend domestically (which means losing its export competitiveness and giving up its export industries) so it can absorb the export capacities from the rest of the world. China is the only country with enough consumer base that can do that, but their consumer base is weak at the moment.
  I have said before: if China can accumulate $1 trillion trade surplus, why not just give their workers an extra day off and pay the same without overtime? Then you’d really be raising their spending power. That $1 trillion surplus is mostly junk papers and it’d be better to spend those labor and resources working to improve the domestic economy instead of making free shit for Westerners.
  The reason China was able to carry parts of the world’s economy and prevented recession itself in 2009 was because they went fully into investing infrastructure and the property market. New cities were cropping up everywhere driving the consumption of steel, concrete etc. (Australia’s economy was notably saved by China’s huge spending then).
  But that merely delayed the problem: the property market crisis and the local government debt crisis we’re seeing today, are the direct outcome of those policies. So China cannot possibly go down the same investment route again, as investment is way too high today (at 40%) and you are already getting diminishing returns. That’s why consumption is the only way out.
  
  And despite europe being in recession, their (china*) exports grew
  
  I do agree they should increase consumption (or rather decrease working hours to deal with youth underemployment and factory work being undesirable). Make manufacturing 6 hour a day with minimal wage high enough, stop high education chasing and let people have fun spending money and free time, like a socialist should strive for.
  
  And despite europe being in recession, their exports grew
  Of course, Europe now needs to work harder to sell stuff so they can earn the currencies to import energy as they can no longer get cheap energy from Russia. So, exports grew, imports are falling, wages will fall/stagnate, and consumption will go down. It’s pretty much an economic dead zone at this point, as Michael Hudson pointed out.
  
  I meant *china's exports, europe is a bigger market than usa (despite usians thinking they are center of the world), so despite anemic behavior, they haven't fucked china growth wise (have fucked belt and road wise though).
  Even if we take 5 billion outside of usa vassals, they have 500 million *middle income (local) people buying xiaomi and chinese cars, they can pass by being best buddies of global south
  
  I mean, Europe is in austerity and recession but that doesn’t mean their accumulated wealth just suddenly disappear. They still have strong economic power but import has indeed fallen in the EU and there is no way they can absorb the supply from the rest of the world if the US replicates a 2009 GFC style recession.
  The point though, is that without the fundamentals for growth, it will be very difficult for the EU to stay as a strong economic bloc as it had over the past two decades. Over the long term, they’re screwed.
- Damn, Xi might be in for another lucky year. Next year must be the unlucky year.

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