I believe you are correct. It makes it worse though because if I like it, collapse, reopen and notice it didn't stick, people would notice it didn't stick. So they end up re-liking it which has the actual effect of cancelling out the original like when refreshed.
This can be avoided by knowing about the issue and why it happens, but that is unlikely for all users to know.
For posts the upvote us there, it's just not visible yet. When you open the post after liking the score is not updated. If you close and reopen it, the score should update and the like should be there. This was elaborated a little while ago. But yeah, might be related to OP's experience.