Bulletins and News Discussion from December 4th to December 10th, 2023 - The Legacy of Kissinger - COTW: Laos
Due to American cluster bombing campaigns advised by Kissinger during the Vietnam War to damage supply lines, over 2 million tonnes of ordinance were dropped on Laos over about a decade, averaging a planeload of bombs every 8 minutes. Laos is thus the most bombed country on the planet up to this point. 80 million bombs failed to explode - the cleanup operation is expected to take centuries, and 25,000 people have been killed and injured by bombs in the last 50 years. About 50 people are killed or injured every year to this day.
After the United States withdrew from Laos, the Pathet Lao took power and abolished the monarchy. Kaysone Phomvihane became a dominant figure in Laotian politics, keeping the course on Marxism-Leninism and implementing the first Five Year Plan in 1981. The second Five Year Plan in 1986 was modelled on Lenin's NEP, and this doubled rice production and significantly increased sugar production. After the fall of the USSR, Laos allowed a small capitalist class to exist, with similar control over them as in China. Laos maintains a 48-hour work week with paid sick leave, vacation time, and maternity leave, and workers are well-represented in trade unions. They faired relatively well during coronavirus from a social standpoint due to quick and efficient action to lock down the country, experiencing ~750 deaths out of a population of over 7 million.
There is hope even after utter destruction by genocidal oppressors.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Here's a Financial Times article about how Israel is attacking the tunnels. I only read the last bit where the author finally got to the point. He's a ghoul: "thermobaric weapons... are controversial because of the broader impact of the explosions, especially in populated areas." He also ignores the fact that using sea water to flood the tunnels is literally salting the earth - Israel will probably literally salt the earth in Gaza. - Hexbear
The next step is to destroy the tunnels. Localised explosions cause only limited fall-ins, which can be cleared away or bypassed by surviving fighters. To fully demolish a tunnel, engineers and military experts said, required explosives set down along long portions of the underground passageways.
Kfir said one method was to use liquid explosives that fill the tunnel space and then detonate. Another possibility, he said, was thermobaric weapons, which suck in oxygen to generate a high-temperature explosion that flows around obstacles. But these are controversial because of the broader impact of the explosions, especially in populated areas.
Pumping in seawater from the Mediterranean at high pressure is a third option, and one that Israel has reportedly already started to use. Richemond-Barak said this technique had the advantage of already being used in the oil and gas industry. But, she added, the problem with flooding is "that you don't know how much you have achieved".
The amount of water required depends on the size of the tunnels and ground absorption, she said: "In the past, using water has not produced a 'hard kill'."
Another possibility, which would pose less risk to the hostages than flooding or explosions, is for the IDF to dig tunnels that intercept Hamas's network and burst into its control nodes.
"Israel should... get to the heart of the Hamas system not from above, but from below," Kfir said. "You would need something like automated excavating machines . . . that would dig towards the target."
Such science fiction-like approaches highlight the difficulties and time needed to destroy Hamas's underground realm. They also explain why some officials regret that Israel did not complete the task years earlier.
"We should have destroyed it all when it [Hamas's tunnel network] was smaller. We had all the intelligence," said the former senior security official.
I don't buy that Seawater is their magic bullet. Nit only will it take forever, but they'll have static infrastructure vulnerable to mortars, small rockets, or even big rockets from lebanon and yemen
I hope to god it doesn't happen but I worry that they'll use thermobaric weapons and intentionally kill huge numbers of civilians because why wouldn't they? They're evil there's nothing to stop them. In the aftermath - they do what they always do - lie, lie, lie, and lie some more. And when the truth finally comes out - they'll lie more, the truth won't matter, and they know it. It's not as if anybody in the Israeli MIC is at risk of actually going on trial at the International Criminal Court or any other court.
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Edit
It's funny how fate is. I'm watching the British tv series MI-5 and the main arc of this particular episode features a thermobaric weapon. Al-Qaeda wants to set off such a bomb in London. The episode is from 2006.
I think there's a slight chance that Netanyahu is made a sacrificial lamb and locked up, for the sole purpose of being like "Oh yeah, we removed the unpopular leader, now Lapid (or whoever would replace him) can do awesome great fantastic things in Gaza, this is a new page for the conflict and there's no reason to worry about war crimes anymore," but I think there's like, a 1% chance of that happening. If Netanyahu was popular then it would be a 0% chance of it happening, as it stands such an act would merely be to quell internal discontent in Israel that could hypothetically lead to something greater
I was about about to write "No..." but I realized your comment is something for me to think about. Before this war - I would have said there was a zero possibility of any trials ever. But October 7th was a sea change. If he ended up being found guilty - it would only be a tiny measure of justice but it would be better than nothing. Also - he loves to quote the Old Testament so it would serve him right to become a scapegoat.
The three things I think could actually be feasibly used to take out the tunnel networks (aside from taking the L and just sending most of your army down there to get murdered but eventually take them all out) are, in order of effectiveness, a) nuclear weapons; b) thermobaric bombs; and c) bunker busters. I just can't imagine how Hamas could possibly have seen flooding being used against their smuggling tunnels by Egypt a few years back, and not gone "Hm, if this isn't a problem we've already sorted out, then we really should get on that if we're actually going to try and do this major attack to draw Israel in to cripple and humiliate their army and lead to a Palestinian state one way or another." Like, it's one of those very obvious and basic issues that you should expect your enemy to try and do - so failing to mitigate it in an operation that has so far been marked by its very good planning and foresight and preparation would be very odd. If Israel had developed some superweapon in the last year, then obviously Hamas might not have the time or resources to counter it, but flooding tunnels to kill the people in there was something tried against the Viet Cong half a fucking century ago, and honestly has probably been a thing for centuries before that in more limited places.
I'm a little confused why the bunker busters haven't seemed to have done that much - of course, it could be total chaos down there with collapsed passages and we just don't know - but it's probably some combination of sufficient depth and Israel just not knowing where to drop them.
Thermobaric bombs seem pretty promising, so the fact that they haven't tried them yet is interesting. I don't believe the faux concern about civilians for a second, they would totally drop a thousand of them on Gaza while doing the Fortnite default dance if they thought it would work and that the rest of the Resistance, most notably Hezbollah, wouldn't start blasting and destroying the country. I'm unsure what's going on with them not trying them, at least not that we know of. Russia has used them in Ukraine, but if they were really THAT effective against soldiers in fortified positions, then we wouldn't still be talking about fucking Avdiivka. I don't know how many civilians still live there that could also be hit by them, but approaching 2 years of this war, it can't be THAT many, right? And what about in trench systems that are away from notable settlements? If thermobaric bombs are that great, why aren't they used there? I don't really know, a military guy would have to tell me.
Nukes and the problems they would generate go without saying of course. I'm unsure how much damage a nuclear blast above ground would cause to people in relatively unreinforced tunnels or bunkers (there's certainly stone or concrete there from the images, but not layers of steel or lead or whatever). Dropped in the tunnels, well, I don't see how you'd survive that even from quite far away, so long as you're in the same tunnel network. Though idk, maybe you'd have to get the nuke pretty deep in there to ensure the energy stays mostly in the tunnel, and that might be an issue all by itself. But this seems like a thing where if we actually have to seriously discuss this, we should probably be preparing for the end of the world and not be on Hexbear.