US intelligence: ‘low confidence’ in part of Israel’s UNRWA claims

A US intelligence assessment of Israel’s claims that UN aid agency staff members participated in the Hamas attack on 7 October said some of the accusations were credible but that the claims of wider links to militant groups could not be independently verified… According to the Wall Street Journal, the intelligence report, released last week, declared it had “low confidence” in the basic claim that a handful of staff had participated in the attack, indicating that it considered the accusations to be credible though it could not independently confirm their veracity.

It cast doubt, however, on accusations that the UN agency was collaborating with Hamas in a wider way. The Journal said the report mentioned that although the UNRWA does coordinate with Hamas in order to deliver aid and operate in the region, there was a lack of evidence to suggest it partnered with the group.

It added that Israel has not “shared the raw intelligence behind its assessments with the US”.

Confidence in Assessments, pp 5, per the US’s own National Intelligence Council:

• Low confidence generally means questionable or implausible information was used, the information is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid analytic inferences, or significant concerns or problems with sources existed.