Rashida Tlaib and 'uncommitted' voters just delivered a major rebuke to Biden over Israel — and it could make him lose Michigan to Trump in 2024
Rashida Tlaib and 'uncommitted' voters just delivered a major rebuke to Biden over Israel — and it could make him lose Michigan to Trump in 2024
Tlaib urged MI Democrats to choose 'uncommitted' over Biden in the primary over support for Israel. It's a major warning for his chances in November.
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in 2012 uncommitted got 11% of the vote against actual human being running for reelection barack obama.
as of this moment uncommitted is. getting just under 15%. the other actual human being running for the dem nomination has barely under 3%.
unless all of those uncommitted voters don't vote for biden in november I don't see biden in any trouble, especially if those uncommitted democratic voters are made up by by around 30% of haley voters.
what this does tell me is that there is a major bias against biden in the media, as if they are actively reporting the news to make it seem like biden has some major electoral issues when a) trump has even bigger issues than biden and b) the numbers are simply not telling that story.
They haven't counted the Arab American counties yet. Dearborn is showing unofficially 75% uncommitted per CNN.
last report I saw via msnbc was dearborn at 56%. but even if it was 75%, it's still not enough of a margin to really be an election concern at this point for the state overall, especially since you don't know how many haley voters would vote biden.
make note of the result and do your best to resolve that issue but it's not a 5 alarm fire. that's the most muslim and specifically palestinian area of the country by far. the congressional district might get a few delegates out of this so it's going to be heard at the convention. but if that's going to be the extent of the discontent I don't think biden has to really be worried nationally.
Oh sweet summer child...
as of right now uncommitted is at 12.7%, and this number has been shrinking all night long. I would not be surprised if it eventually hits the same percentage of uncommitted votes that has happened in the past few primaries which is 10%.
gaza was not the major election issue the media or rep. talib was making it out to be. it's certainly not a major general election issue considering the alternative.
as a fun side note marianne williamson who got out of the race a month ago is officially beating dean phillips who for some reason is still running.
100,000+ uncommitted now with 85% reporting. Don't try to dismiss this as nothing. This is historic.
for every 1 vote uncommitted got, biden got 6.
michigan opened up more opportunities to go vote so more people voted. that was a historic vote the same way trump got the second most votes in a presidential election and still lost by 7 million. uncommitted ended up getting a few more points than they normally get. that's not historic.
The GOP had a total of 1.1 million votes last night. The Democrats had 767k total votes, 102k which were uncommitted. Don't be obtuse. This would have cost Biden the election if it was the general.
the democratic primary was uncontested. the republican primary technically speaking is still being contested. there is no reasonable incentive for a democratic primary voter to turn out. the fact that over 800k votes were cast in a one man race says a whole lot about democratic energy.
being obtuse is trying to say that being outvoted 6:1 on a issue that is undefined is a historic event. biden's handling of gaza is one reason to vote uncommitted. but so is being concerned about biden's age. but so is joe biden not being bernie sanders.
and by the way, you have no idea how many people who voted for haley or republican uncommitted (or democratic uncommitted for that matter) will end up voting for biden in november. to assume that every republican primary voter is going to be a guaranteed trump vote and every uncommitted democratic primary voter is a guaranteed not biden voter is stupid.
but here's what we did find out last night. the majority of democratic primary voters last night don't have an issue with the way biden is handling things. compared with other primaries this protest movement vote made no impact. now if you need to tell yourselves 100k voters means something to ease the disappointment, go right ahead. just know the actual results don't back you up.
Don't fool yourself. You know as well as I do that a large majority of Haley voters will fall in line and vote for the Republican in the general.