Bulletins and News Discussion from May 13th to May 19th, 2024 - The Blazing Furnace - COTW: Vietnam
Bulletins and News Discussion from May 13th to May 19th, 2024 - The Blazing Furnace - COTW: Vietnam
An image of a Central Committee meeting in Hanoi. Image taken from this article.
General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng implemented an anti-corruption campaign in 2016 called "blazing furnace" in shorthand. Since then, the fire has ripped through both politicians and businesses, up to even the Presidency. Nearly 200,000 party members, 36 Central Committee members, and 50 police/military generals have been disciplined since the initiative began. In 2018, Dinh La Thang, the former party chief of Ho Chi Minh City, became the first sitting Politburo member to be criminally charged, and was sentenced to 30 years in prison. In 2023, President Nguyễn Xuân Phúc was implicated in a corruption scandal and resigned. He was replaced by Võ Văn Thưởng, who was then also caught in a corruption scandal a year later in March 2024, making him the shortest serving President in Vietnamese history. The Presidency is current headed by Võ Thị Ánh Xuân while they find a new President; she also took that role in 2023.
The ousted leaders tend to also be part of the more West-friendly, technocratic faction inside Vietnam, either reflecting how these people also tend to be more easily corrupted, or how the Communist Party is slowly moving away from a foreign policy which allies itself with the West (as Vietnam has comprehensive strategic partnerships with several Western countries), or some combination. Of course, this shouldn't be overstated - Vietnam has maintained a close friendship with China for years, and both incumbent leaders are intimately familiar with anti-corruption campaigns and how and why they must be conducted in order to deliver maximum public benefit.
America clearly desires Vietnam to pick their side, because America strongly desires another vassal state in East Asia like the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan to further encircle and isolate China. And so the headlines and commentary of Western state propaganda like Radio Free Asia, the BBC, WaPo, Business Insider, etc reveal their increasing annoyance with Vietnam's government. They often couch this in the standard "objective" economics language); about how removing leaders who foreign investors were reassured by might mean economic pain for Vietnam ahead. As Bhadrakumar noted in 2023, perhaps the BBC revealed their intentions the best:
Reading Vietnamese politics is always difficult — the Communist Party makes its decisions behind closed doors. But hard-line General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who was given an unprecedented third term at last year’s party congress, appears to be consolidating his authority by ousting senior officials seen as more pro-Western and pro-business. Officially this is all happening in the name of fighting corruption,.. but it’s indicative of a power struggle at the top of the party… the likely rise now of more security-focused officials to the top of the party will be bad news.
Even a quick google search right now will show a bunch of articles by clearly nervous Westerners: Why Vietnam’s Escalating Anti-Corruption Campaign Might Backfire because, as we all know, only authoritarian regimes are vulnerable to things like public opinion and discontent, while Western "democracies" are insulated from such petty phenomena. Leaders here can have disapproval ratings of 60-70% and not even the slightest consequence will happen to them - a real sign of democratic freedom and justice over those primitive regimes in the East! Or, take: ‘Blazing Furnace’ Turns Vietnam Into Another Chinese Province; China turning both Russia and Vietnam into their provinces in just two years was a real diplomatic masterclass. Or, back in 2022: Vietnam's 'blazing furnace' crackdown burns $40 bln off stocks. Not the stocks! Anything but the stocks!
If your actions as a leader are pissing off Bloomberg, you are going in the right direction.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Vietnam! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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The US seems to be trying to more aggressively get China and other Russian Allies to stop helping Russia evade sanctions by threatening them with sanctions. The frustrating thing is that it seems to be working with more Chinese banks refusing Russian payments.
All this is going to do is make 2 different types of banks in China ones that deal with Russia and ones that deal with USA.
Xi needs to cut the shit and crack down on those banks, are the Chinese just gonna eat every punch and hope for the best? That's a good way to end up balkanized
The Chinese have eaten every punch and it’s made them the number one economic power on the planet. I think they know what they’re doing. This is bad in the short term, but it’s not even an issue long term, nothing to blow a gasket over jeez.
The Soviet Union was once the number two economic power on the planet......and then it stopped existing
The United States was once the number one military force on the planet… and then they started shitting out of their doodoo ass lmao
I wish China could figure that out
Chinas military is very much untested. I think they would overall win a war against the US but they have a lot to learn considering they haven’t actually had to use their military in decades.
i dont really get this argument "untested" like is USA tested when they failed every test ? when german whent into France 1914 its last big war was 1871 .. .. i would not put much weight into it "untested" thing.
The United States fails because their objectives up until now did not matter, but that isn’t the same as having a bad military. China and Russia are aware of how much damage the US military can do and it’s not insignificant. The objective of every war for the US since ww2 has been to expand the MIC which it has obviously done, but if the US went into any of these places (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq) with the intention of actually conquering them there would have been very little to stop them. This isn’t to excuse the US’s actions obviously, but with these new wars we are forgetting just how much of a grip the US military had over the world. Chinas military is impressive and I think they have invested their money in the right places, but anyone who believes China isn’t going to make some mistakes is fooling themselves.
No one really talks about it, but even now the US is still gaining relevant experience for modern combat in Ukraine as we speak.
but if the US went into any of these places (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq) with the intention of actually conquering them there would have been very little to stop them.
I understand what you're trying to get at, but I disagree. As in, I don't think what was stopping the United States winning those wars was just "Well, we didn't want to win, actually! We just wanted to make a few bucks!" It's not as if America had a bunch of Real Generals in the back ready to take over from the Profit Generals if they suddenly decided that they needed another state to add to the country. Sure, if the US had a competent, long-term imperial strategy from 1945 onwards then this might well have been true, but they didn't.
America does have real generals in the back, but they will never be picked to actually perform to their capabilities because these wars are not fought by generals, they're fought by the humunculus that is the CIA, MIC, and SOCOM. It is pretty universally recognized that you do not make it to the top brass by being a good general, you get there by already being a part of, or clearly having your eyes towards being part of that humunculus in some capacity.
Just as an example Paul Van Ripper will absolutely be seen as a visionary in modern warfare, but since he did it by blowing the fuck out of the navy and criticizing their doctrine your average American will never know who they are.
That's a good way to end up balkanized
The West had their chance in 1989 and they fucking blew it. Post 1989, the avenues for potential balkanization are Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, and all avenues are closed for the foreseeable future. East Turkestan separatism has been neutralized and will probably be even less of a political force as the Axis of Resistance rid WANA of ISIS and Wahhabism. Tibetan separatism has been a joke for decades and continues to be a joke as the Damai Lama showed to the world how much of a pedo he really is. Hong Kong separatists have fled to Terf Island while average Hong Kongers, who have long turned their nose up with respect to Mainlanders for decades, are now flocking to vacation in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, finally conceding that the Mainland has better quality of life than HK and apparently better Cantonese chefs who make superior dim sum. Even Taiwanese separatism isn't doing that great going by the recent Taiwanese presidential elections. The pro-separatist candidate had a limp plurality. The candidate, who all the Taiwanese zoomers love and who purposefully chose to be neither pro-status quo nor pro-separatist in order to attract more votes as a third party candidate, is facing charges of corruption in an obvious politically motivated attack by the two main parties. Overall, there's a general sense that Taiwanese society is completely divided with no sense of unity. Going beyond Taiwanese politics, Mainland coast guards are patrolling Kinmen, which is a slow but unambiguous step towards reunification between the Mainland and Taiwan.
Compared with 1989, the PRC in 2024 is more consolidated than ever no amount how much the West tried to impotently meddle with Chinese affairs.
This should be unacceptable right? Surely they're at a point where they don't have to give into something like this
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I did see that in the article, tho the initial reactions made me raise an eyebrow regardless
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If anything, BRICS New Development Bank continues to hand out dollar loans, which only serves to dollarize their own countries! What in the actual fuck.
Welcome to sub imperialism:
The overarching concern of Washington has been the potential for a major geopolitical bloc to emerge around Xi and especially Vladimir Putin, including BRICS allies South Africa and Brazil, yet the Johannesburg summit did not push that agenda in any obvious way, and Putin was compelled to stay in Moscow because of the International Criminal Court warrant. The BRICS (2023) Johannesburg Declaration did indeed confirm the location of BRICS squarely within imperialism’s multilateral institutions, with explicitly-stated support for the:
“rules-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) at its core... a market-oriented agricultural trading system... a robust Global Financial Safety Net with a quota-based and adequately resourced IMF at its center… [with] increases in the quota shares of emerging markets and developing economies (EMDCs)… including in leadership positions in the Bretton Woods institutions… global consensus on economic policies… the importance of the G20 to continue playing the role of the premier multilateral forum in the field of international economic and financial cooperation… We note the opportunities to build sustained momentum for change by India, Brazil and South Africa presiding over the G20 from 2023 to 2025.”
The simple message here, is that instead of overturning the high table of Western economic power, the bloc is intent on stabilizing and relegitimizing that ‘rules-based order’ – in spite of a glaring contradiction, namely that its underlying ideology, the Washington Consensus, has caused so much suffering in so many low-income BRICS communities. This obeisance is not unusual, because since 2008 when the G20 was founded, the BRICS have served as the West’s financial and multilateral-policy backstop. It is in such global-scale settings – and in Western+BRICS corporations’ foreign direct investments in poor countries – that imperialist and sub-imperialist interests tend to fuse.
Samir Amin’s diagnosis of worst-case racial capitalism, Patrick Bond, 11 November 2023
For whatever reason, it has been decided that directly challenging the Western imperialist economic system is not on the agenda as of yet for the alliance. I hope that it will be on the agenda soon.
As for China: “Remaining out of financial globalisation is an important weapon in your hands; do not offer the weapon to your enemy!”
I think you are measuring the US by their own standard instead of applying more realistic standards.
Biden sends out billions of billions of dollars to Ukraine but what actually does that buy them, because it doesn't buy them for example artillery shells, or missiles or tanks. It certainly doesn't buy them manpower or victory so what good does that aid do exactly?
The US dollar increasingly has the problem that there's nothing left to buy, the reason why a company like Tesla was worth as much as the three big car companies combined while producing 0.01% is not because Elon Musk is a super genius but because you could buy Tesla it was a thing that Investors could buy and so much we see now as Capitalism being idiotic is because all those companies and investors and capitalists have all the money in the world and absolutely nothing to buy anymore, the reason why Bill Gates and Blackrock are buying up farmland is because well you can buy it, the reason shitty start ups like WeWork can get billions of dollars is because finally some bank or company can spend their money on something.
The US dollar is reaching a real point where it increasingly becomes apparent that it doesn't buy you everything, the more the US goes for their chosen strategy the less valuable the US dollar becomes because you can't use it to buy things anymore.