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Trump Has Exposed the Fragility of the Global Dollar System

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Trump Has Exposed the Fragility of the Global Dollar System

What caused Donald Trump to walk back on many of his tariffs last week was not domestic pressure but a run on the market for US Treasuries led by large institutional savers. If US debt is no longer a safe asset, then American hegemony is also at risk.

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  • Trump Has Exposed Exploited the Fragility of the Global Dollar System

    • Trump Has Exposed Exploited Created the Fragility of the Global Dollar System in order to exploit it at the expense of the United States' long-term economic prosperity

      • I think you're wrong: the problem in the US is that the dollar is far too strong in relation to industrial output. The reason for this is that it is bought by other nations as a reserve currency through US government bonds.

        This is a major problem for the US industry, which is nowhere near as strong as the strength of the currency would suggest. The problem is that a disproportionately strong dollar makes US products so expensive on the global market that they are barely competitive.

        Trump's plan (described in the so-called "Mar-a-Lago Accord") now envisages forcing the partner states in particular, all of which are creditors of the USA, to suspend their claims (basically as if it were a national bankruptcy).

        The only two explanations for this behavior I can come up with are: Either the US is actually bankrupt and Trump is trying to forestall the inevitable, or he is trying to impose an economic system on the world that favors the US even more than it already does, in an excess of hubris.

        Either way: I believe that neither of the "solutions" for these two scenarios are realistically feasible with this plan. And I also don't think that the Fed will go along with this, without which Trump cannot implement this plan - but he can't force the Fed to play along either because he has no direct control over this institution as it is independent of the state administration.

16 comments