Bulletins and News Discussion from March 24th to March 30th, 2025 - The Genocide Continues - COTW: Qatar

Image is of Gazans breaking their fast with the Iftar meal during the ongoing Ramadan.

Due to a request by @miz@hexbear.net, this thread's COTW is Qatar.

The ceasefire deal broke down early last week after Israel unilaterally changed the terms of the agreement and then blamed Hamas for not meeting them. Violence against civilians has rapidly accelerated to pre-ceasefire levels, with many hundreds dead already, aid once again cut off, and Israeli soldiers once again entering and occupying the attritional labyrinth that is Gaza.

I'm not yet in a position to make any solid predictions or analysis, as the geopolitical situation in and around Israel has changed fairly substantially over the last 6 months; in some ways benefiting Israel, and in other ways not. We know for sure how Hamas and Ansarallah are reacting (thankfully, with open hostility to both Israel and the United States), but the state of Hezbollah has been a giant question mark for months now, and precisely what Iran plans to do (beyond the usual level of supplying weaponry and intelligence to all the allies it can) is unknown. Syria will be almost certainly be a big wildcard, and we'll have to see if the compradors in Damascus can weather the storm.

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Latest statement from the Yemeni Armed Forces:
It seems that by firing two ballistic missiles at a time in this new strategy, one Palestine-2 MaRV (Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle) equipped missile, and one less advanced missile without a MaRV, that the Yemenis can avoid boost phase or midcourse interception over Saudi Arabia or Jordan, by the US Navy's SM-3, and the Israeli Arrow 3, resulting in terminal phase intercepts by THAAD, Arrow 2 or David's Sling. In the terminal phase, THAAD with it's kinetic interceptors, high altitude ceiling for a terminal intercept system, and sophisticated radar seems to be the only system that can reliably intercept MaRV equipped ballistic missiles in the terminal phase. Arrow 2 uses blast fragmentation interceptors, not kinetic, and David's Sling is a new system aimed around intercepting the latest shorter range tactical ballistic missiles. THAAD interceptor debris was photographed in Israel today. For anyone that wants an idea of what the trajectory of a MaRV capable missile looks like, here are two graphics showing it, the first graphic is an exaggeration for visual effect, and the second graphic shows the trajectory planning for a Pershing-II missiles with two separate pull up manoeuvres and glide phases, with seperate vertical and horizontal scales.

It also seems as if the Yemenis launch these large scale attacks on the US Navy warships in the Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to prevent them from staying closer to Yemen. The CSG might come closer to perform attacks, but then pulls back to around Jeddah, about 700-800km from Yemen for general operations. 700km is the "magic number" here, as it's the range of the Zolfogar Basir Anti Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM). 500km is also a very important number, as it's the range of the Tankeel/Raad-500 Zoheir engined ASBM, the most sophisticated ASBM in the Yemeni arsenal.
- Question for you I have been thinking about: to what extent are these missiles able to move laterally (left to right) during the maneuvering phase?
  
  Some ballistic missiles can re-enter the atmosphere in a spiralling motion, literally moving in a spiral towards the target, but that's a completely different kind of re-entry.
  For this re entry model, lateral maneuvers can be performed during the level flight "glide/maneuver phases" in order to track a moving target (in the case of a ship) or stationary target on land, in fact this flight simulation does include a lateral maneuver in this phase. I'll post the graphics below. Lateral maneuvers are quite limited, it's not like the missile can perform a 180° turn or anything like that in this re-entry model.
  Full research paper
  During the boost and unpowered/midcourse phase, roll and yaw is usually set to zero, through there are even more advanced missiles now with thrust vector control on the boosters, enabling the execution of limited maneuvers during the boost phase, either for guidance updates when trying to hit a moving target (like a ship), correction of errors towards the re-entry point, or to conduct pseudo random evasive maneuvers to defeat boost phase and midcourse interception. The Tankeel/Raad-500 Zoheir engined missile was the first Iranian ballistic missile with thrust vector control on the booster stage, as well as a MaRV that seperates from the booster stage early during the midcourse/unpowered phase of flight, and was unveiled in 2020. It was also described by Russian state media TASS as Ansarallah's "first hypersonic weapon", though that is quite a contentious debate. (MaRV equipped ballistic missiles are not usually considered hypersonic weapons).
  If you want a video of how this actually looks in action, there was one from Iran's Operation True Promise II October attack on Israel, showing MaRVs performing pull up manoeuvres, level flight, and then diving towards the target. Then a second phase of more conventional ballistic missiles approaches, showing the difference. It's actually quite an interesting video that went under the radar in regards to this.
  Twitter link for video
  Xcancel link
  
  Thanks. The reason I ask is because I had a shower thought yesterday on if it would be theoretically possible to intercept a plane from above with one lol. Basically a ballistic missile launch where the re-entry/glide vehicle chased down/dive bombed a jet.
  
  Some surface to air missiles launched by air defence systems, or air to air missiles launched by fighter aircraft, already do perform something similar, with quasi ballistic trajectory options to hit long range targets. Here's a description of how the two stage missiles from the S-300V air defence system work:
  Observation of 9M82 Giant launch footage confirms the stated stage burn durations, and also indicates the use of an energy management profile, where the missile boosts to an apogee, and post apogee flies a pulldown/pullup manoeuvre before transitioning into a shallow dive as it closes with the the intended target.
  The long range R-37M air to air missile (with kills on Ukrainian aircraft at distances over 200km) is also suspected to perform a similar quasi ballistic trajectory when firing at long range (it can also fire directly at an aircraft in a seperate flight mode), boosting to an apogee and diving down towards the target.

733 comments