Bulletins and News Discussion from August 5th to August 11th, 2024 - LGBT - COTW: Iraq

I do have to respect it in a way. I might be misremembering but about this time last year, I think I was talking about how the Ukrainian offensive against Zaporozhye was futile and how Ukraine should instead try something incredibly audacious to try and shock the Russians into some sort of sudden peace, such as attacking Russian territory directly. If Ukraine was doing the current offensive with the resources they had in 2023, then maybe it would get somewhere - not Voronezh, not even Kursk (city) necessarily, but y'know, briefly occupying an appreciable fraction of an oblast would be a shock. As it stands now, I don't predict Ukraine making much more substantial progress even without Russia's extensive fortifications that they built up in Zaporozhye.

it's still an idiotic decision, but I feel like it's the least idiotic decision they could have made if they didn't want to just surrender.

• doing nothing and hoping that Russia runs out of equipment and men before you do? a mere comparison of numbers reveals that to be a losing strategy, even if it takes you 10 years to lose.
• attacking Russian forces inside Ukraine? doesn't work (anymore), too well-defended.
• attacking Russian forces inside Russia? has a chance, albeit small, of forcing a breach wide open before Russia can effectively respond, which could eventually lead to... something.

idk, I feel like the Ukrainian hope is that the Russian generals will panic and sue for peace before the offensive can be beaten back and their position made considerably worse by all the equipment used, but if there's one thing that the Russian general staff has not once done in this war, it is panic. They are admirably, unnervingly, frustratingly calm about everything that happens, even during the worst days of Kharkov in September 2022, and take their time to formulate the proper response. The Russian telegrammers are probably shitting their pants about how Zelensky will be touring Moscow by December, but they don't matter. I feel like Russia could honestly lose the entire Kursk oblast and the response from Putin would just be a "yeah, we're keeping track of that too, all the war aims will be achieved" yada yada, and we're not even 1% of the way towards that.

the Russians saw Ukrainian build-ups and hesitated to strike

If this is the All in, Last Hurrah, Hail Mary, move which will lead to ukraine capitulating would it not make sense to pretend they didn't know? Russia's strikes on the build up of the 2023 offensive delayed it by months and in that time they were reinforced and reequipped and got valuable on the job training.

By making the initial punch through the border look easy ukraine gets excited and pushes deep really fast. They spread themselves out with no defensive positions which is way quicker and easier to deal with than if they were holding out in a dozen towns in Ukraine. Russia's goal is to destroy ukraine's army.

This isn't going to turn Russians against the war, even if it does make them a little disappointed in the military and Putin, they will mostly just forgive it as a mistake and those happen in war. Maybe it'll lead to Russia declaring war formally and striking zelensky directly so that negotiations with his successor can take place. Maybe it's a "pearl harbor" to convince Russians that going all in is in their best interest.