Bulletins and News Discussion from February 10th to February 16th, 2025 - There Is Noboa Alternative - COTW: Ecuador

Image is of the Galapagos Islands, sourced from here.

Moving the megathread topic slightly away from the chaos of the United States and going back around the world, we will begin with paying attention to Ecuador.

Ecuador has been ruled by Daniel Noboa since 2023, after he won the snap election. He's about as ghoulish as one gets; a neoliberal right-winger and as much as a marionette to the United States as Milei. Two months ago, he gave effective control of the Galapagos Islands to the United States and is allowing them to build a military base there - beginning the potential conversion from a natural paradise to unsinkable aircraft carrier.

We are now seeing the rematch between Noboa and Gonzalez; the latter of which is a leftist politician with a similar ideology to Correa, the socialist who ruled Ecuador from 2007 to 2017. The divide in Ecuador today is largely between the Correaists and those who oppose them, though Leonidas Iza represents the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador and commands a notable share of the vote.

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193 comments

By Mondoweiss
Hamas just announced a delay in releasing captives scheduled for next weekend, citing Israel’s obstruction of aid—blocking the entry of tents and rebuilding material into Gaza. Hamas says this obstruction is “a new war” on Gaza, escalating tensions amid the fragile ceasefire deal.
An Israeli official denies these accusations but no official government statement yet. Israel’s war cabinet is set to meet tomorrow, meaning another day of uncertainty. Qatar has warned Israel that blocking humanitarian aid jeopardizes both the second and first phases of the ceasefire deal. The message is clear: aid entry is non-negotiable.
Hamas is likely waiting for mediators to intervene, but ultimately, everything depends on Netanyahu’s real intentions—does he want the deal to collapse? Hamas’s announcement itself isn’t a breach of the deal. But if they fail to announce the names of captives to be released by Friday, that would be a breach.
This move by Hamas could be an escalation to pressure mediators amid Trump’s recent comments about “owning” Gaza and expelling Palestinians. Meanwhile, Israeli war minister Yisrael Katz is calling Hamas’s move a breach and has ordered the army to prepare at maximum alert for “all scenarios.”
Hamas’s bet is that mediators will resolve this before Friday, avoiding the need to take further action. Another Israeli official claims Hamas has been making these accusations for a while. But an Israeli delegation has now left for Doha—suggesting Hamas timed this move to push rebuilding aid to the top of the agenda.
The core issue? Israel is blocking heavy machinery to remove rubble and reconstruction materials, worsening the humanitarian crisis from Israel's genocide. Meanwhile, families of the captives have called on the Israeli government “not to take any measure that would jeopardize the ceasefire and hostage release deal.”
- This bodes poorly for the ceasefire correct?
  
  Israel refusing to honor the ceasefire and repeatedly violating it and ignoring the terms does bode poorly, yes
  
  I expected Hamas to do what Lebanon have and not respond to the violations to release prisoners and briefly rebuild. Isn’t this pretty much how Israel does ceasefires, where they make up excuses to keep slaughtering?
  
  The ceasefire violations by Israel were the usual things that Israel does, like bombing people for not taking the correct routes back to their homes or not obeying the "fine print" of the ceasefire deal, or delaying the implementation until Israel wants to move forward and bombing until the last minute. I don't think these Israeli ceasefire violations are the reason Hamas is no longer releasing hostages, that's to be expected with Israel.
  The difference now with Gaza is that it is clear that there is no serious plan or offer from the United States, Israel, and/or the Arab states in the region to implement the third phase of the ceasefire, which is to do with the rebuilding and governance of Gaza once the hostage exchanges are completed. Without this, there is no reason for Hamas to abide by the ceasefire agreement and continue releasing hostages. If Hamas gives up the hostages while there is no actual plan for phase 3 of the ceasefire, Hamas is essentially giving up all of their leverage for nothing in return. The latest hostage exchange was the start of phase 2, with the IDF withdrawing from the Netzarim Corridor as a result. So Israel gave up this leverage (occupying the Netzarim Corridor) to get phase 2 underway. Hamas wants to remain the side with the most leverage here.
  Also it's questionable how many Israeli hostages are still alive, what is their health condition, etc. The last three hostages that were released by Hamas (to start phase 2 of the ceasefire agreement) were visibly malnourished and underweight, in contrast to all the previously released hostages, who appeared healthy, with some even having gained weight. Gaza has been under genocidal conditions for 15 months now with Israeli bombings that have killed hostages and with minimal food and water. So another angle is that there simply aren't that many Israeli hostages left that are alive or in good health, and most of the healthy and alive hostages have already been released. If Hamas releases the few remaining hostages now, they also lose all of their leverage, with no plan for phase 3 of the ceasefire in place.
  
  Yes which is why there will be no peace until “Israel” is destroyed and wiped off the map. They are agreement incapable bloodthirsty war pigs

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