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Bulletins and News Discussion from February 10th to February 16th, 2025 - There Is Noboa Alternative - COTW: Ecuador

Image is of the Galapagos Islands, sourced from here.

Moving the megathread topic slightly away from the chaos of the United States and going back around the world, we will begin with paying attention to Ecuador.

Ecuador has been ruled by Daniel Noboa since 2023, after he won the snap election. He's about as ghoulish as one gets; a neoliberal right-winger and as much as a marionette to the United States as Milei. Two months ago, he gave effective control of the Galapagos Islands to the United States and is allowing them to build a military base there - beginning the potential conversion from a natural paradise to unsinkable aircraft carrier.

We are now seeing the rematch between Noboa and Gonzalez; the latter of which is a leftist politician with a similar ideology to Correa, the socialist who ruled Ecuador from 2007 to 2017. The divide in Ecuador today is largely between the Correaists and those who oppose them, though Leonidas Iza represents the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador and commands a notable share of the vote.

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193 comments

  • Gestapo raided the Education Bookshop in Al-Quds, arresting it's owners Ahmed and Mahmoud Muna, with their detention also just extended by 8 more days. The primary "evidence" to justify arrest is a colouring book from South Africa, titled From the River to the Sea. The cover includes the Al Aqsa Mosque, two variants of the Handala, one Palestinian, the other South African and a cityscape of Johannesburg with the Hillbrow Tower.

    This is also the very first arrest made directly as a result of possessing South African material.

    Cover of the colouring book in question:

    Death to ameriKKKa, Death to isnotreal

  • Senegal Does Away With French Names
    https://africanstream.media/senegal-does-away-with-french-names/

    Catch a cab in Dakar, Senegal, and you might think you’ve taken a wrong turn and ended up in Paris, thanks to the street names like Avenue Georges-Pompidou, Rue Félix-Faure and Rue Jules-Ferry, among others.

    Things are changing, however, under President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, who rode an anti-colonial wave into power in March 2024. The duo appear to be on a mission to bolster Senegalese identity and cut ties with France despite worries that they had backed away from their anti-colonial campaign promises.

    Seven months into his presidency, Faye called for French troops to pack their bags and leave Senegal, marking a significant pivot in the West African state’s foreign policy. This move is another blow at Françafrique, or the lingering sphere of French influence in West Africa. Senegal is now in league with other states in Africa’s Sahel region, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Chad, all of whom are busy dialling down their French connections, both cultural and military.

    Faye tapped Sonko to head the National Council for Memory and Management of Historical Heritage, a new government agency tasked with renaming streets. The Dakar-based Front for Anti-imperialist, Popular and Pan-African Revolution (FRAPP) is leading the charge for a more Senegalese flavour in the capital’s nomenclature. FRAPP members argue that so many French colonial street names keep painful colonial memories alive.

    One particularly bitter memory is the massacre of ‘tirailleurs senegalais’ (Senegalese troops serving the French colonial army) on 1 December 1944. When they protested for better pay, French colonial soldiers opened fire, k*lling as many as 400, according to scholars. Then, in 2012, then-French President François Hollande admitted France’s role in the massacre. He promised to hand over French archives on the incident on its 70th anniversary, but that never happened.

    However, on the 80th anniversary, Faye rewrote Senegal’s story with physical markers to ensure the Senegalese never forget their heroes.

  • President Trump said on Monday that he could cut aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refused his demand to permanently take in most Palestinians from Gaza, substantially increasing the pressure on key allies in the region to back his audacious proposal to relocate the entire population of the territory in order to redevelop it.

    The president also said from the White House that if Hamas did not release all the remaining Israeli hostages by “12 o’clock on Saturday,” the cease-fire agreement with Israel should be canceled.

    “All hell is going to break out,” Mr. Trump said to reporters in the Oval Office, while acknowledging that the choice over ending the cease-fire ultimately fell to Israel.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/us/politics/trump-jordan-egypt-gaza-development.html

    Kinda wild that the Americans elected this guy all by themselves and he's going to just destroy their own country over the next four years and no one else has to lift a finger - and they love him for it.. Like who would have guessed when Survivor aired in 2000 that a reality TV star would eventually unravel the whole place. It just blows my mind to watch this in real time.

    • cut aid to Egypt

      This is not what the "realist zionists" want to hear. The US has essentially been paying Egypt off since the Camp David Accords to not fight isntrael and all the US interventions. Egypt has been #2 in US milliary aid for decades because at least they had enough sense to charge a high price for, let's be honest, betraying the rest of the Arab world. But the Egyptian government sees that aid as payment for services rendered, not charity. Cutting that aid will only increase tensions between Egypt and the Zionist entity and could even provoke Egypt into searching for a new ally for its defense needs.

      Not to say Egypt would go to war over this though, they are way too reliant on US equipment to afford that (its like 85% American procurements). Despite that overreliance, Egypt is still not in a situation where they will rapidly collapse if the US ends military aid, so despite the high cost this isn't as much leverage Trump probably thinks it is. Bush and Obama tried yanking on this chain during the Arab spring, when the Egyptian government was on much shakier ground, and Egyptians didn't budge. Nothing came of it because those ghouls knew the US was getting to much out of the aid to cut it over trying to support a color revolution. So I really don't see Egypt moving over this threat. If trump does actually cut the aid, then LMAO I'm sure China will be happy sell whatever Egypt needs replacements for.

    • The president also said from the White House that if Hamas did not release all the remaining Israeli hostages by “12 o’clock on Saturday,” the cease-fire agreement with Israel should be canceled.

      “All hell is going to break out,” Mr. Trump said to reporters in the Oval Office, while acknowledging that the choice over ending the cease-fire ultimately fell to Israel.

      The first serious challenge to Trump's madman diplomacy, where he threatens the opponent with overwhelming force if they don't provide some concessions. Let's see if this will work with Hamas, Israel, Qatar, Iran, etc. This is all about leverage here, Hamas is not going to give up all the remaining hostages, and thus all the leverage they have, until they get some guarantees with regards to phase 3 of the ceasefire, the rebuilding and governance of Gaza. Hamas wants to remain in a position where they have some leverage, and with Israel withdrawing from the Netzarim Corridor for the start of phase 2 of the ceasefire and giving that up, this is the only opportunity Hamas has to be in this position where they have this much sway, so they will make use of it. I just hope this doesn't end up escalating to where Gaza is getting bombed again...

    • That's right, keep pushing till it breaks! Keep pushing until the nothing ever happens memes are banished forever!

  • I'm just going to address the latest Israeli PsyOp that has hit the news media, primarily being spread by the German outlet Bild, and Turkish newspapers. This PsyOp being that Israel has obtained a GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb from the United States, and that they plan to use it against Iran's hardened nuclear facilities.

    There are two problems with this idea. The first is the idea that the MOAB is a "bunker buster" bomb that can be used for this mission. The truth is that it's not a bunker buster bomb, as the name states it's an air blast bomb, it does not penetrate deeply into the ground before exploding, it actually detonates above the ground. The lightweight aluminium casing of the MOAB is not designed to penetrate anything either. So it cannot be used to strike against deep bunkers in the mountains, such as Iran's nuclear facilities. There appears to be some confusion here, people confusing the huge overpressure effect that can occur when a MOAB is dropped in a valley or an open cave complex (as it was in Afghanistan) with bunker buster/penetrator capabilities.

    The second issue is the delivery method. The only way of delivering the MOAB is to fly a modified C-130 transport aircraft directly over the target, and drop it out of the back of the plane. Israel have C-130s, but flying one over Iran would be a suicide mission, it would be shot down instantly. So the MOAB would never reach Iran.

    The truth is also, that no such deal for a MOAB has occurred. I managed to track down the primary source of the misinformation that all these articles are quoting, and it's a Fox News segment between Sean Hannity and Steve Witkoff, in which Witkoff says that Israel already has "bunker buster bombs", likely referring to the 2000lb BLU-109. The MOAB is never even mentioned. These articles are completely fabricating and hallucinating something that was never even said.

    The bomb that Israel would need to strike Iranian hardened nuclear facilities is the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), which is only carried by the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber of the United States Air Force. The United States did use the B-2 and MOP combination in Yemen last year, in a clear warning to Iran. Israel will not get this capability, the United States reserves it for only itself. Which is how the power dynamics play out, meaning Israel cannot "go it alone" with air strikes against Iranian bunkers deep in the mountains. They would require the participation of the United States. Israel can "go it alone" in other ways against Iran as they have shown, but not in that specific capability.

      • Israeli PsyOps are just so pervasive, they even hit all lots of resistance media outlets. I still remember when the news megathread accurately predicted Israel's attack on Iran (in terms of what Israel would hit and the tactics), then Israeli PsyOps started a few hours before their attack, which drove us all into a panic. It's part of why I created this account, to try find the primary sources of information, post them, and analyse them ourselves, instead of relying on journalists and outlets which don't know their arse from their elbow, are days behind on reporting, use AI LLMs for their research getting key information wrong in the process, etc.

    • The second issue is the delivery method. The only way of delivering the MOAB is to fly a modified C-130 transport aircraft directly over the target, and drop it out of the back of the plane. Israel have C-130s, but flying one over Iran would be a suicide mission, it would be shot down instantly. So the MOAB would never reach Iran.

      Never actually knew the delivery of a MOAB is a fucking C-130, that'll be an easy target in a conventional war imo. At least, this system against a conventional enemy is unreliable to say the least, like I can't imagine one or a couple of slow C-130s trying to strike say a Russian grouping with a MOAB, they will never make it. This leads me to believe the MOAB was designed with COIN in mind, to be used against enemies that have little to no way of countering an air force's operations.

      • The MOAB can trace its origins to the "Daisy Cutter" bombs that were used in Vietnam to clear sections of forests so that helicopters and/or paratroopers could land. It's just a much bigger version of that. Modern day use seems to be for psychological impact against enemies that can't effectively counter it. A weapon of intimidation and anti personnel weapon against large groupings of insurgents.

      • to be used against enemies that have little to no way of countering an air force's operations.

        Isn't that basically all NATO nations strategy? 'step one: establish air superiority, step two: ???, step three: profit'

    • Also want to add the really depressing truth that if there is any future deal for sending a MOAB to Israel (none exists currently and I don't expect any to materialise in future, but in the very rare case it happens), the target will not be Iran. It would be Gaza or southern Lebanon...

    • Surely Iran built their nuclear facility deeper than what they'd expect could be hit with conventional or nuclear weapons

      Next you'll tell me the leader of Hamas is just strolling about Gaza

      • The MOP is not your ordinary bunker buster bomb, it's a 30 000lb/14 000kg bomb that's only 20% explosive by weight, consisting of just under 6000lbs of plastic bonded explosives. The casing is made of hardened metals like tungsten, and the bomb only explodes when it stops penetrating, or at a certain depth, depending on the fuse used. Early documents on the bomb's design state that it can penetrate over 200ft/60m of reinforced concrete. And each B-2 Spirit stealth bomber carries two of them. No one really knows how far it can penetrate. Nasrallah's bunker in Beirut was destroyed by 2000lb bunker buster bombs called the BLU-109, between 60-80 were dropped on the bunker and surrounding buildings. These bombs can penetrate up to 12ft/4m of reinforced concrete.

        This video shows the impact of a one of these BLU-109 2000lb bunker buster bombs, how it penetrates the earth before exploding. The MOP weighs 15 times more and can penetrate a depth 17 times deeper than the BLU-109.

        Twitter source

        Xcancel mirror

        Now imagine a crater 17 times deeper, that's the penetration capabilities of the MOP...

  • @0__0@hexbear.net

    I'll answer your question. First, Ecuador was in a state of chaos during the 1990s, which led to the 2000 military coup against the neoliberal government. The coup was orchestrated by far-left military officers and CONAIE (Organization of the Indigenous). Lieutenant Colonel Lucio Gutiérrez took control of the country, tried to install a Chavista-style government, but failed and Gustavo Noboa (the vice-president at the time and father of Daniel Noboa, the current president) took control of the country with the help of right-wing military officers and the US.

    Lieutenant Colonel Lucio Gutiérrez was eventually democratically elected in 2003, but he betrayed the left and promoted neoliberalism, which led to a new crisis. Gutiérrez was ousted and his vice-president, Alfredo Palacio, took power. Palacio's economic minister was Rafael Correa. Correa managed to resolve the economic and political crisis and became so popular that he was eventually elected president, governing with a socialist ideology. During Correa's government, the economy was working well, security was also good and a lot of money was spent on education and healthcare. The US attempted a coup in 2010, but Correa destroyed the coup by literally walking into the headquarters of the coup leaders and slapping them in the face, after which the building was stormed by SWAT forces loyal to Correa and Correa supporters.

    Correa chose his vice-president as his successor, Lenin Moreno. But then Lenin betrayed Correa and went back to promoting neoliberalism. And then the Ecuadorian right and the US started waging legal war against Correa, who had been exiled to Belgium. All this led to more crisis and chaos in Ecuador, which is currently suffering from a huge crisis of violence.

    Second, Idk if the left is going to lose, if the Correaistas convince Leonidas Iza (CONAIE candidate) to support them, theres literally nothing Noboa can do, legally, to win the election.

    • But then Lenin betrayed Correa and went back to promoting neoliberalism

    • You forgot to mention the CONAIE-Correa split, the CONAIE was very important in getting Lucio Gutiérrez elected and then getting him ousted from the government after he sign an agreement with the IMF pro-privatization, so they are a very important.

      Correa then lost their supported when he introduce a bill to privatize water in ecuador, which led to them doing the same thing they did with the last guy and started the 2015 protests with mass movilizations and general strikes to show their discontent. And since then the split has continue.

      so the question is will Luisa Gonzalez try to gain back the indigenous vote to secure the win or ignore them and try to win with a 1% diference

      • Yes, theres a lot I left out, like how Ecuador dollarized their economy and other stuff such as the border conflicts with Uribe. If Correa and CONAIE unite again, that would mean the temporary defeat of the Ecuadorian Right, but the new goverment will have to deal with an economic and security crisis, besides the fact there will be US troops in Peru and inside Ecuador.

      • She supported drilling in the national parks, so I doubt it. She's the lesser of two evils, but hardly interested in preserving the Amazon.

    • Iza is a leftist. Gonzalez is not.

  • By Mondoweiss

    Hamas just announced a delay in releasing captives scheduled for next weekend, citing Israel’s obstruction of aid—blocking the entry of tents and rebuilding material into Gaza. Hamas says this obstruction is “a new war” on Gaza, escalating tensions amid the fragile ceasefire deal.

    An Israeli official denies these accusations but no official government statement yet. Israel’s war cabinet is set to meet tomorrow, meaning another day of uncertainty. Qatar has warned Israel that blocking humanitarian aid jeopardizes both the second and first phases of the ceasefire deal. The message is clear: aid entry is non-negotiable.

    Hamas is likely waiting for mediators to intervene, but ultimately, everything depends on Netanyahu’s real intentions—does he want the deal to collapse? Hamas’s announcement itself isn’t a breach of the deal. But if they fail to announce the names of captives to be released by Friday, that would be a breach.

    This move by Hamas could be an escalation to pressure mediators amid Trump’s recent comments about “owning” Gaza and expelling Palestinians. Meanwhile, Israeli war minister Yisrael Katz is calling Hamas’s move a breach and has ordered the army to prepare at maximum alert for “all scenarios.”

    Hamas’s bet is that mediators will resolve this before Friday, avoiding the need to take further action. Another Israeli official claims Hamas has been making these accusations for a while. But an Israeli delegation has now left for Doha—suggesting Hamas timed this move to push rebuilding aid to the top of the agenda.

    The core issue? Israel is blocking heavy machinery to remove rubble and reconstruction materials, worsening the humanitarian crisis from Israel's genocide. Meanwhile, families of the captives have called on the Israeli government “not to take any measure that would jeopardize the ceasefire and hostage release deal.”

  • On Monday, President Javier Milei asked Sonia Cavallo, daughter of former Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo, who served as Argentina's ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS), to resign. The 51-year-old woman had been appointed in April 2024 despite not residing in the country.

    Hours earlier, Domingo Cavallo had been called "unpresentable" by Javier Milei, after raising questions about the government's exchange rate scheme. Cavallo was quickly added to the list of economists denounced by Javier Milei, which includes Carlos Melconian, Ricardo López Murphy and Roberto Cachanosky, among others.

    “Domingo Cavallo is often referred to as one of Milei’s mentors. In La Libertad Avanza they insist that it was he who sent Kikuchi to the team, as a kind of support or blessing,” says Juan Luis González in his book El loco.

    However, a few months after Javier Milei took office as president, Cavallo began to make some criticisms about the economic direction. In May, Cavallo questioned the fact that he continued to accumulate reserves, although "not to intervene in the market but to feel comfortable with a greater liberalization of the exchange market," amid a slowdown in the rise of prices.

    These comments unleashed the fury of Javier Milei, who was quick to call his former idol an "unpresentable." "How is he going to make the dollar go up if I'm taking away all the pesos that are floating around? The dollar has to fall like a piano. I'm going to tell him, especially the unpresentable Cavallo," said the President this Monday, in an interview on A24.

    Lmao

    Imagine losing you job because of a facebook post your dad made

  • Left-wing presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez denounces anomalies during the counting process and warns that there are about 2,600 vote tally sheets with inconsistencies (this amounts to upwards of 700,000 votes).

    Luisa: "We have about 2614 minutes with inconsistencies according to our reports. We have had to face members of the security forces closing the doors of the precincts. They don't allow our delegates, our observers, to enter, who ask them to recount the tally sheets.

    Luisa: "There have been anomalies. In Manabí, scanning suddenly stops because the scanners were damaged, the internet goes down. If inconsistencies are solved in Guayas, Manabí and Esmeraldas, most likely we'd be first in this race."

    Luisa: "We do distrust the CNE, I have to say it clearly, I've said it this entire time. We have a CNE president who has not shown that she is the president of the CNE nor that the rules are clear before the electoral contest, but that she is a campaign manager of Mr. Daniel Noboa."

    Luisa: "One more lie. [Daniel Noboa] said he won in a single round. They put out an exit poll where they say he wins with 50%. False. We knew that this was false. An exit poll contracted by president Noboa and endorsed by the CNE, which was obviously lying.

  • Bipartisanism wins in Ecuador: Noboa and González head to presidential run-off Hexbear Post

    In an unprecedented election, the candidate of the ruling party and the candidate of the Citizen Revolution party monopolized more than 88% of the valid votes, even though there were almost 16 candidates.

    Right-wing Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa and progressive Luisa González clinched first and second place in the first round of Ecuador’s presidential elections, winning a combined 88% of the valid votes. The two candidates will dispute the Presidency of the Republic on April 13.

    Oaxaca Indigenous leader’s killing leaves land defenders’ safety in doubt Hexbear post

    Arnoldo Nicolás Romero, a commissioner in Oaxaca’s San Juan Guichicovi municipality, was found shot dead on Jan. 21, hidden behind bushes in a private ranch not far from his community.

    After Romero’s death, the Union of Indigenous Communities of the Northern Zone of the Isthmus (UCIZONI) released a statement that condemned his killing and demanded that authorities “promptly” initiate an investigation into his death.

    Israel has displaced 40,000 Palestinians in the West Bank, UNRWA says Hexbear Post

    The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) said in a statement on Monday that the number of Palestinians Israel has displaced in the occupied West Bank since the beginning of its ongoing offensive has reached 40,000.

    Dubbed “Operation Iron Wall,” the ongoing Israeli military invasion overtook the northern West Bank in mid-January, leading to the forcible displacement of thousands of residents. On February 10, UNRWA said that “the forced displacement of Palestinian communities in the northern West Bank is escalating at an alarming pace.”

  • Last week I joked on how Musk took inspiration from milei now that he's carrying out his crusade against whatever remains of the "New Deal"-ish State. And I can see similarities...

    I think "DOGE" is kinda inspired in Argentina's "Ministry of Deregulation and Transformation of the State", an all-powerfull shady institution led by someone who was not directly elected, who is a massive piece of shit, who can intervene anywhere and who has political experience working with previous (failed) administrations, always on the heavy neoliberal side of things. Naturally there are differences, the extent of the "reforms" are going to be different depending on each country given that the US is institutionally and demographically seventy two trillion times bigger than Argentina, so the process of dismantling the State of certain elements is going to be different and will have different effects.

    But the principle remains the same: A specific institution was created to spearhead all the efforts to scrap the State and for that task is given ridiculous powers to do so. Both are led by somewhat unelected officials with free reign over anything they desire, neither Elon Musk or Federico Sturzenegger (the guy in charge of the dismantling of the Argentinian State) have clear specific roles within their Governments, they are appointed at the will of their respective Presidents and their actions represent their own will.

    The goals are also the same but will have different impacts. In Argentina the goal is to end, once and for all, the massive privatization campaign that began in the 1970s, continued heavily in the 90s, suffered setbacks in the mid 2000s up to 2014 and resumed with various degrees of intensity after. The complete privatization of all "public" aspects of the State is to be carried out by this shady Ministry and they cannot be hold accountable. The same goes for "DOGE": Eviscerate the Federal and "Public" institutions to pave the way for relentless privatization, whether that is education, transportation, infraestructure or energy, you name it.

    Whether this actually represents the end of both Argentina and the US as entities remains to be seen, in principle Capitalism at it's core cannot reproduce itself for too long without the State intervening in certain areas, after all, a Ministry of Education is essential, and since both countries are intimatelly tied to Capitalism's very existence, their own existence is therefore in jeopardy. However, perhaps, Capitalism is mutating into something truly hideous and new, it's last mutation, perhaps being the "An"Cap one, before it finally succums once and for all.

    death to "israel" btw.

193 comments