Bulletins and News Discussion from March 10th to March 16th, 2025 - The New World Struggles To Be Born; Now Is The Time Of Proxy Wars - COTW: Myanmar

Image is from Wikipedia's article on the war..

I've wanted to cover Myanmar for a while now but haven't had the needed knowledge to write much more than "This situation really sucks." After doing a little reading on the situation, I feel even more confused. A decent analogy is the Syrian Civil War, at least while Assad was in power (though it's still pretty true today) - many different opposition groups, some co-operating with the United States, others not. The main government supported partially by an anti-American superpower, but who could live with that government collapsing if there are deals to be made with the group coming into power. A conflict kept going and exploited at least partially by the United States and other imperial core powers, though with plenty of genuine domestic animosity and desires for political independence.

Recently, the Myanmar government - the mainstream media uses "junta", which is probably accurate despite the connotations - has promised elections at the end of 2025. This doesn't seem likely to happen, and even if it did, how this would work in a country as war-torn as Myanmar is unclear. The government is losing territory and soldiers at a quick pace; they now hold only 21% of the country, though that 21% does at least comprise many of the cities. It's difficult to get a handle on the number of people affected because civil wars and insurgencies have been ongoing in some shape or form for decades, but we're talking at least millions displaced and thousands of civilians killed.

Here's a comment by @TheGenderWitch@hexbear.net from fairly recently that covers the situation in Myanmar:

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If anyone is wondering where Steve Witkoff is after his no show in the bilateral negotiations between the USA and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia: It turns out he didn't fly with the government delegation, he flew on his own private plane to Abu Dhabi, UAE; and never made it to Saudi Arabia, which is why his reserved seat in Saudi Arabia was empty. Witkoff then flew to Doha, Qatar; to negotiate with the mediators of the hostage exchange agreement between Hamas and Israel. This coincided with Trump saying that Palestinians will not be forcefully removed from the Gaza Strip. So some sort of agreement was reached there.
As for where Witkoff is now, this is the big news: Witkoff has flown to Moscow, Russia; as of a few hours ago, to present the ceasefire proposal for the Russia - Ukraine war and negotiate with the Russian delegation and Vladimir Putin. This is Witkoff's second trip to Russia, the first was to begin negotiations in February where the prisoner exchange for Marc Fogel was arranged as a gesture of goodwill. So this second trip now is the big negotiation, the fate of the 30 day freeze on the current frontline, and any immediate concessions to Russia, depends on the outcome of this negotiation. Witkoff is Trump's enforcer and there are no other US delegates present, so this is coming right from the top from a US perspective. And the Russian delegation has said that the final decision is with Vladimir Putin. So it's effectively a one to one negotiation between Trump and Putin, with Trump sending his right hand man to carry out the work of negotiating for him.
Putin has given his opening statement before meeting Witkoff, during a press conference with the Belarusian delegation during Lukashenko's visit to the Kremlin. I just watched it. ~~If anyone has a full video link, feel free to provide it in the replies.~~ Full 7:30 video of Putin's response, with English subtitles
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In summary:
Russia agreas with plans to end hostilities long term, as long as they adress the root causes that caused the conflict to start in the first place and lead to a permanent peace.
Putin is in favour of a 30 day truce, as long as the following conditions/nuances are worked out:
Sorting out the situation with Ukrainian remnants in the Kursk region, they either have to "surrender or die". The Kursk salient is under complete Russian fire control, so retreat is not possible. Therefore, is Russia supposed to just left them go back to Ukraine, even though they've committed crimes against Russian civilians?
Russia has questions if Ukraine will use the 30 day truce to mobilise their army, recruit/conscript and train soldiers, or rearm, or if nothing of the sort will be allowed. If Ukraine is not allowed to mobilise and arm itself during the 30 day truce, who controls that?
Russia wants clarity on where exactly the freeze across the frontlines will take place and when it will be implemented, given Russia is currently advancing on the frontlines. In other words, how much longer will Russia be allowed to advance for before the freeze is in place. Where will the demarcation line be?
Russia has questions on how the ceasefire will be policed and who will enforce it across the +-2000km frontline. Who will determine any potential ceasefire violations, and what the consequences of violating the ceasefire will be? Both sides will have to research this.
Russia supports a peaceful end to the war in general, but many issues have to be discussed. Maybe in a phonecall with President Trump.
- No outlawing cult of nazis, lmao. Truly dumbest country diplomatically, such a gimme to demand outlawing oun monuments, to make poland look dumb with germany, but no, can't do that
  
  its not a peace agreement, its a ceasefire. the question of what is being discussed is completely different
  
  No de-nazification or de-militirisation mentioned. I think that's a sign by Putin that Russia is willing to come to the table, so long as its core demands are met.
- Putin is in favour of a 30 day truce, as long as the following conditions/nuances are worked out:
  In my opinion, this is just Putin trying to avoid looking like the bad guy by refusing a ceasefire. Ukraine will obviously not accept a 30 day pause on recruitment and rearmament. Even if they did, it would be obvious that they were lying.
  
  I actually misunderstood that part. On rewatching, Putin says that Russia has questions if Ukraine will use the 30 day truce to rearm or not, and if not, who will control that on the Ukrainian side? Obviously Russia would prefer that they do not rearm. There's actually no mention of guarantees. I've provided a link to Putin's full answer so you can watch it yourself, I don't hear any mention of guarantees on a rewatch.
  To me it reads very much as "yes we can do a ceasefire, but these are our interests and areas of concern, we can't do a ceasefire without addressing them". Ukraine is Ukraine, they'll be Slava Ukraini till the end under Zelensky. But that doesn't matter much, the party with the real power is the United States, and they will get Ukraine to agree to what they want. A freeze on recruitment and armament is probably unrealistic if the ceasefire is only viewed as a temporary thing. But that shouldn't be of large concern if the point of this ceasefire is to open negotiations for ending the war permanently.
  What's interesting is no mention of de-militirisation or the occupied territories.
- قسي قلبك يا بوتين Harden your heart, Putin
  
  You might want to check out Putin's latest press conference, I've provided a summary

556 comments