Honest question: what was Hamas' long-game with respect to kidnapping Israelis? Did they think Israel would just negotiate rather than retaliate?
Honest question: what was Hamas' long-game with respect to kidnapping Israelis? Did they think Israel would just negotiate rather than retaliate?
It just seems crazy to me given the power imbalance. A cynical part of me suspects that things are playing out exactly as some evil strategists hoped they would, which, given all the children dying, is super-depressing.
I look forward to hearing your thoughts.
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This video by a political science professor explains it best: https://youtu.be/zMxHU34IgyY?si=N5oHElN4Xlbiqznh
In short, the only people who truly know are Hamas, and the best the rest of us can do is speculate.
Some possibilities are that Hamas wanted to sabotage normalizing relations between Israel and the rest of the Muslim world, that Hamas wanted to bait Israel into a wildly disproportionate response that would garner themselves sympathy and recruits, that Hamas was bluffing and feigning strength and counting on Israel to think the attack was bait, that Hamas was just acting on bloodlust and wanted to attack regardless of the consequences, or many other possibilities.
Further, we focus a lot on the substative issues, i.e., the grievances and disagreements at hand, but we don't talk about the bargaining frictions nearly enough. There are countless border disputes around the world, and yet they rarely result in war. Why? Because war is costly and most wish to avoid it. War typically happens when there are both substantive issues and bargaining frictions, i.e., things preventing the two sides from negotiating a solution. But us onlookers can't even know for sure what these frictions are, only speculate.
All this is simply the nature of the fog of war, that the true strategies/goals won't be known for a while, if ever. Anyone who tries to tell you with certainty why they did what they did at this stage doesn't actually know with any degree of certainty. Nobody but Hamas actually knows.
I do recommend watching the full video above, as the professor is very engaging, rather amusing, and covers this topic quite thoroughly.
All this is simply the nature of the fog of war, that the true strategies/goals won't be known for a while, if ever. Anyone who tries to tell you with certainty why they did what they did at this stage doesn't actually know with any degree of certainty
That's one of the most reasonable responses to this madness I've seen recently.
Far too many people are out there demanding instant information with 100% accuracy and crying conspiracy when they can't get their impossible wish.
I think even worse than the expectation of instant knowledge is the expectation that everyone must pick a side and must do it now. There are dozens of conflicts around the world with atrocities being committed, but this is the only one you consistently get called out for not picking a side.
I think it's healthy for people outside of the conflict to ultimately feel one side has more or less justification, while still acknowledging their faults and mistakes.
I am woefully ignorant on the politics and history of the region and it's people.
Recognizing this, I cannot lay my support for either side. Somehow, to many this is an incorrect stance and I must have an opinion and pick a side.
It would take considerable time and effort to learn the background and create an informed independent opinion as I do not trust the news to give me an unbiased report of the war. It would be unrealistic to think everyone can do this, and so I think we should normalize people not taking a side.
Sometimes "I don't know" is the only correct response yet one so few are willing to give. Kudos.
the expectation that everyone must pick a side
Yeah, I've had some nauseating back and forth with several users who just can't seem to grasp the notion that criticising Israel does not mean you support Hamas.
And the other way around
My experience is actually quite the opposite. In (real world) discussions I had so far I see that most people just talk about the horrific consequences of this war, with so many innocent casualties on both sides. People are often _not _ picking sides because this is such an old and complex conflict with atrocities perpetrated on both sides. Which imho is the most reasonable thing to do. Yes, what Hamas did on that festival and is it still doing is disgusting, but Israel's response since then is equally disgusting. It's just impossible to condemn one side while excusing the other.
To be fair, it was quite similar with Russia vs Ukraine, but by now seemingly everyone has forgotten that that's still a thing.
Thank you for the video and the thoughtful response!
All this is simply the nature of the fog of war, that the true strategies/goals won't be known for a while, if ever.
This is what we've all been thinking about Russia/Putin's government too. With tons of friends and family in Russia and Ukraine we are still at a loss what exactly the idea/projected outcome/strategy/expectation was to start that war. I hear a lot of armchair experts and amateur war psychologists trying to explain it away like it is obvious but it just isn't. It feels like there are a bunch of clues and pieces of a puzzle mixed in with random puzzle pieces that don't belong to what you are trying to assemble, and it is unclear whether we will ever truly understand it sometime in the future.
Interesting watch, got a new subscriber from that one. Much appreciated.
But us onlookers can't even know for sure what these frictions are, only speculate.
I've looked at an interview with an Israeli political sciences professor yesterday, that went something like this:
- Professor: "...and this is why countries like Israel have the right to defend themselves"
- Host: "Right. What about the Pales..."
- Professor: "That's not an issue"
- Host: "There are civilian..."
- Professor: "Israeli civilians have been harmed and we need to respond"
- Host: "Is the response proportion..."
- Professor: "Respond to destroy the terrorists"
- Host: "It seems like Gaza population is.."
- Professor: "Gaza is Israel, there is no population, we need to rid it of terrorists"
As an onlooker, I'd say that is a FREAKING HUGE and obvious "friction", when one side denies the existence of the other.
You're making statements about sides based off what some unnamed "Israeli professor" allegedly said. Okay.
False.
My statement is about the relationship between sides, in reference to part of the previous comment, illustrated by what I recalled of a recent event, and how it ties into it.
If you want similar examples from different sides, you'll find plenty of them both these days and throughout history, I just happened to recall this one.
Great video and summary! Love that channel.