I think this is just the leading edge unless folks are lining up to replace moderators in most communities.
Systems tend to fail slowly, and then all at once.
Most fediverse denizens have noticed how sane and measured the dialogue is, which is entirely a product of the audience who is here right now. But everyone's got a threshold, whether Reddit loses everyone or not isn't relevant if they couldn't be profitable with all of us. There's a death spiral coming, and if there's anything left Reddit will have to functionally change.
Easiest to think of Reddit as a party grinding on too long and starting to get rowdier, and the bouncers just quit.
Yeah, July 1st will be interesting. The important thing is that the various alternatives have gotten seeded with users who are contributing enough content to make them viable. That means that when the 1st hits users will have viable places to go.
Honestly, when I first got to Beehaw a couple weeks ago it was pretty sparse and 10 comments in a thread was a lot. Now 10 comments is thin and the low hundreds are becoming the norm. It's growing and snowballing.
The only reason I haven't left left is because Apollo still works. That will cease in the next day and I will be done unless Google directs me to there for something I need.
Same for me. As long as opening Relay brings me to reddit, it's hard to stop using it. But once that stops, or becomes ad ridden or whatever, there's no way in hell I will install the official reddit app or anything like that, and I hate using a browser on mobile so not doing that either... So yeah. That'll be it for me. So far Beehaw/lemmy is shaping up to replace it though.
I do miss some of the silly quirky fun subs (r/HyruleEngineering I'm looking at you), but my normal usage needs have been met by a blend of Lemmy and Kbin (if Lemmy is having a rough day, I subscribed to the same communities on Kbin and can access from that side, or vice-versa).