Starship Development Thread #52
Starship Development Thread #52
Portions of this thread copied from the Starship Dev thread on r/SpaceX.
FAQ
- When next launch? IFT-3 is NET Feb 2024, and after completion of the IFT-2 mishap investigation. Candidate vehicles are Booster 10 and Ship 28.
- When previous launch? (IFT-2)? Booster 9 and Ship 25 launched on 2023-11-18.
- What was the result? Successful lift off with minimal pad damage. Successful booster operation with all engines to successful hot stage separation. Booster destroyed by AFTS after attempted boost-back. Ship fired all engines to near orbital speed then destroyed by AFTS. No re-entry attempt.
- Was IFT-2 a complete failure? No. As part of an iterative test programme, many milestones were achieved. Perfection is neither expected nor desired at this stage.
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Quick Links
RAPTOR ROOST | LAB CAM | SAPPHIRE CAM | SENTINEL CAM | ROVER CAM | ROVER 2.0 CAM | PLEX CAM | NSF STARBASE
Starship Dev 51 | Starship Dev 50 | Starship Dev 49 | Starship Dev 48
Status
Road Closures
| Type | Start (CDT) | End (CDT) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Date | 2023-12-18 08:00 | 2023-12-18 20:00 | Closure Revoked. HWY 4 and Boca Chica Beach will be open. |
| Alternative Date | 2023-12-19 08:00 | 2023-12-19 20:00 | Closure Revoked. HWY 4 and Boca Chica Beach will be open. |
| Alternative Date | 2023-12-20 08:00 | 2023-12-20 20:00 | Closure Concluded. HWY 4 and Boca Chica Beach now open. |
| Primary Date | 2023-12-21 08:00 | 2023-12-21 20:00 | Closure Concluded. HWY 4 and Boca Chica Beach now open. |
| Alternative Date | 2023-12-22 08:00 | 2023-12-22 20:00 | Closure Concluded. HWY 4 and Boca Chica Beach now open. |
| Primary Date | 2023-12-27 08:00 | 2023-12-27 20:00 | Closure Revoked. HWY 4 and Boca Chica Beach open. |
| Primary Date | 2023-12-29 06:00 | 2023-12-29 16:00 | Possible closure. |
| Alternate Date | 2024-01-03 08:00 | 2024-01-03 18:00 | Possible closure. |
| Alternate Date | 2024-01-04 08:00 | 2024-01-04 18:00 | Possible closure. |
Up to date as of 2023-12-27
Vehicle Status
As of 2024-01-05
Follow Ring Watchers on Twitter and Discord for more.
| Ship | Location | Status | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| S24 | Gulf of Mexico | Destroyed | April 20th (IFT-1): Destroyed by flight termination system after successful launch. |
| S25 | Atlantic Ocean | Destroyed | Mostly successful launch and stage separation |
| S26 | Rocket Garden | Mysterious | Static fire Oct. 20. No fins or heat shield, multiple mysterious changes. Completed 3 cryo tests, latest on Oct 10. |
| S28 | Highbay | Pre-flight prep | Static fired Dec 29th |
| S29 | Megabay 2 | Pending engine install | 3x cryo |
| S30 | Massey's | Cryo testing | 2x cryo: Jan 3rd and Jan 5th |
| S31 | High Bay | Receiving aft flaps | |
| S32 | High Bay | Under construction | Stacking in progress. |
| S33-34 | Build Site | Parts spotted | To be scrapped in preparation for Starship V2 |
| Booster | Location | Status | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| B7 | Gulf of Mexico | Destroyed | Destroyed by flight termination system after successful launch. |
| B9 | Gulf of Mexico | Destroyed | Successfully launched, destroyed during Boost back attempt. |
| B10 | Megabay 1 | Pre-flight prep | Static fired Dec 29th. |
| B11 | Megabay 1 | Finalizing | Completed 2 Cryo tests. |
| B12 | Massey's | Pending cryo testing | |
| B13 | Megabay 1 | Stacking | LOx tank stacked |
| B14 | Build Site | Assembly | Assorted parts spotted |
| B15 | Build Site | Assembly | Potential aft end spotted Jan 5th |
Resources
- LabPadre Channel | NASASpaceFlight.com Channel
- NSF: Booster 7 + Ship X (likely 24) Updates Thread | Most Recent
- NSF: Boca Chica Production Updates Thread | Most recent
- NSF: Elon Starship tweet compilation | Most Recent
- SpaceX: Website Starship page | Starship Users Guide (2020, PDF)
- FAA: SpaceX Starship Project at the Boca Chica Launch Site
- FAA: Temporary Flight Restrictions NOTAM list
- FCC: Starship Orbital Demo detailed Exhibit - 0748-EX-ST-2021 application June 20 through December 20
- NASA: Starship Reentry Observation (Technical Report)
- Hwy 4 & Boca Chica Beach Closures (May not be available outside US)
- Production Progress Infographics by @RingWatchers
- Raptor 2 Tracker by @SpaceRhin0
- Acronym definitions by Decronym
- Everyday Astronaut: Starbase Tour with Elon Musk, Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3
- Everyday Astronaut: 2022 Elon Musk Interviews, Starbase/Ship Updates | Launch Tower | Merlin Engine | Raptor Engine
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As part of an iterative test programme, many milestones were achieved. Perfection is neither expected nor desired at this stage.
Sounds reasonable, except for the final bit. It's just ridiculous to claim that perfection was not desired. Sensors provide the same data, investors will be happier and invest more, clients will gain more trust and spend more. It feels like the excuse some kid would come up with, who is lacking self confidence to stand by their limited success and claimed it was all intentio... oh.
It’s just ridiculous to claim that perfection was not desired.
I think this refers to SpaceX's hardware-rich iterative development process. The quote "if you never fail, you're not pushing the boundaries enough" sums up the sentiment well.
If you never succeed you are pushing them too hard.
A test that goes to completion always returns more data than one that doesn't. For example there is a theory that the flaps on the ship are too large. IFT2 could have confirmed or falsified it.
Hmm, interesting take. Do you think SpaceX's current IFT goals are too ambitious? If you were in charge, what modifications would you make to the testing schedule?
I think you are reading too much into this. SpaceX has a rather aggressive test program, and the purpose of the tests is not (only) to verify the functionality of the system, but also to learn about the vehicle and involved technologies. At this stage they are pushing the boundaries of the systems capabilities intentionally up to the point where it might start to fail. So if things don’t fail, it only means that they could have pushed harder and squeezed out more performance.
That does not mean that anyone wants Starship to explode. But the objective is clearly not to do a perfect launch, because SpaceX knows that it’s more efficient to make mistakes a few times times and then succeed, instead of spending excessive amounts of time and money one single perfect test launch. This has been communicated very clearly from the very beginning.
Not really. It has been communicated very clearly that if there wasn't a successful starship launch every two weeks by 2022 (I believe that's the year Elon Musk used?), SpaceX runs the risk of bankruptcy. At this point what they are doing means, that he wasn't truthful when he said that, or that they are failing unintentionally and downplaying it, or that they are actually very far behind their plans and heading toward bankruptcy.
"Runs the risk" means it might happen, not that it will happen. When he said that Starlink was committed to switching to the version two satellites and F9 was not expected to be able to launch them. They would have missed their FCC deadlines. However, they were able to develop the "shrunken" Starlink2 that fits on F9. I also think that both the F9 launch cadence and Starlink sales have exceeded expectations.