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Bulletins and News Discussion from May 6th to May 12th, 2024 - The Nagorno-Karabakh Nosedive - COTW: Armenia

Image is of Stepanakert, essentially the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is now a ghost city, and Azerbaijan has recently torn down the parliament building and various other important places. Sourced from this article.


Despite the predictions and assertions of various NATO-aligned commentators that Russia's influence is waning, the opposite generally appears to be occurring. ASEAN has become more strongly aligned with Russia despite claims to the contrary. In Central Asia, there has been a propaganda push to declare that countries there are "emerging from Russia's shadow", while in reality, as Bhadrakumar analyzes, Russia's significant economic growth and ongoing march towards victory in Ukraine is creating opportunities for further integration, not separation, and there are no major political shifts there in terms of Russian ties. And in Niger, Russian soldiers have now entered an airbase which once hosted American soldiers, now kicked out, and generally Russia's diplomacy and economic deals (nuclear power plant construction, military equipment, grain shipments, etc) have accelerated in Africa.

Where Russia's influence has actually seemed to decrease (outside of the West, of course) is in Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh's remarkably rapid collapse in late 2023 demonstrated that Russia was not willing to escalate things in defense of Armenia to fend off Azerbaijan. One hundred thousand Armenians - most but not all of them in the region - fled in advance to avoid mass persecution, which received remarkably little attention by a West which calls itself overwhelmingly concerned with borders changing due to military action as in Ukraine. Since then, Armenia seems to be on some kind of self-annihilating bender, allured by the potential of Western military and economic deals. Armenia froze its membership in the CSTO due to its failure to protect them, and the head of NATO, Stoltenberg, visited the region in March. The West has offered up hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to Armenia and is helping them "modernize their military"; given the poor track record of Western military equipment in Ukraine, one wonders why they're even bothering. RAND has advocated for a balancing act; America should, in their eyes, realize that they can't entirely remove Russia's influence but nonetheless should make inroads to protect Armenia from Azerbaijan (which is an interesting position given that Israel provided arms to Azerbaijan to help them take Nagorno-Karabakh).

A quick look at Armenia's geographical position reveals the folly of trying to create some kind of Western outpost. With a hostile Azerbaijan to their east, a very unfriendly (albeit NATO member) Turkiye to their west, an ascendant Iran to their south, and Russia not far from the action, there is little hope of doing much more than causing a little chaos in the hopes it'll momentarily distract Russia while it makes inroads most everywhere else on the planet. The political situation appears miserable for Pashinyan, but there isn't really a popular alternative to take the reins. A truly cursed situation.


The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Armenia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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  • BenarNews (US Funded Media) - US officials to discuss with Malaysia ‘potential impact’ of Iran sanctions’ violations

    Treasury Department says it’s concerned about Washington-sanctioned Iranian oil being moved from ship to ship in Southeast Asian waters.

    A U.S. Treasury delegation will discuss the consequences of allowing transshipments of Washington-sanctioned Iranian oil in meetings with government officials here this week, amid longtime allegations by Western news and research firms that Malaysia permits Iran to use its waters for ship-to-ship petroleum transfers.

    Western news

    YOU YOURSELF ARE WESTERN NEWS? che-laugh

    …The American officials who arrived in Kuala Lumpur late on Monday will engage in blunt discussions with their Malaysian counterparts, U.S. Ambassador Edgard Kagan said on the sidelines of Asia’s largest defense show.

    brandon “You brown orientals need to listen to the White Man and stop trading with the Islamofascist Terrorists”

    “We are confident that the Malaysian government understands the U.S. position with regard to transshipment of oil that has been sanctioned, and understands the potential impact that this could have,” Kagan said in response to a question about whether Washington sees Malaysia as a transshipment hub for Iranian oil.

    These Crakkkers need to STFU. Keep swinging buddy, it’ll just encourage further decoupling from the West.

    He did not elaborate on what he meant by “potential impact,” which could mean anything from sanctions on Malaysia to an emboldened Iran potentially causing more trouble for Washington.

    Sanctions deny people or companies access to assets within the United States and prevent American citizens or financial institutions from doing business with them.

    Don’t know how that concerns people in Southeast Asia but okay

    “We look forward to candid and frank discussions that are going to be done very much from our standpoint in the spirit of working together to address a common problem,” Kagan said.

    Go ahead and sanction. I don’t think the numerous American companies based in Malaysia are gonna react too kindly to the political machinations of the warmongers affecting their bottomline.

    common problem

    It clearly ain’t a problem for the numerous local businesses benefiting from trade with Iran.

    bean

    In December, the U.S Treasury Department imposed sanctions on four Malaysia-based companies it accused of helping Iran’s production of drones. Washington accuses Iran of supplying deadly drones to what it says are terrorist proxies in the Middle East, and to Russia for use in Ukraine.

    Only four? The companies in Malaysia need to step up their game.

    On Friday, the Treasury Department said that two of its top officials would visit Malaysia and Singapore on May 6-9 to advance its work in countering what it called terror financing by Iran and its proxies, and the implementation of sanctions against Russia.

    Only Singapore has imposed sanctions on Russia. The USA is not in the position to dictate how an independent country wants to handle their own trade and diplomatic relations. Fuck off anti-cracker-aktion

    “In Malaysia, Under Secretary Nelson and General Counsel MacBride will discuss the United States’ efforts to disrupt terrorist financing, including through fundraising for fraudulent charities and illicit oil sales, while ensuring that U.S. sanctions and other financial measures do not impede the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza.”

    efforts to disrupt terrorist financing, including fundraising for fraudulent charities

    We should ban the New Endowment for Democracy to be in line with the stated objectives. troll

    humanitarian aid

    Such as “lethal aid” for Israel mayhaps? soviet-hmm

    BenarNews contacted the Prime Minister’s Office and the foreign ministry for comment on the U.S. officials’ visit and Kagan’s comments, but did not immediately hear back.

    I don’t think they care to respond to US propaganda outlets. agony-shivering

    Both the issues – sanctions against Russia and Iran – have seen the East and the West divided in their responses.

    No shit.

    …Malaysia has taken a stance supporting Iran, which launched drones and fired missiles at Israel on April 13. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim described Iran’s actions as a “legitimate act” in response to Israel’s “barbarous” attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus.

    This is the opinion of the Global Majority.

    ‘I will not accept any threats’ …He said in November that Malaysia would maintain ties with Hamas and not be cowed by the threat of “unilateral” sanctions for doing so in the face of a proposed U.S. law to sanction the group’s supporters.  He was responding to the Nov. 1 passage by the U.S. House of Representatives of the Hamas and Other Palestinian Terrorist Groups International Financing Prevention Act. It has yet to be passed by the Senate. “I will not accept any threats, including this,” Anwar said in Parliament back then.  “This action is unilateral and not valid because we, as members of the United Nations, only recognize decisions made by the United Nations Security Council.”

    I have covered this before but I’ll repeat again: Anwar faces internal opposition from more radical Islamic political factions that are staunchly pro-Palestine and Anti-Zionist. Even if he wasn’t himself a believer of a modernist Islam, it would be political suicide if he did not take a stance for Hamas.

    The government’s position is entirely in line with the opinion of the vast majority in Malaysia.

    In December, Malaysia banned Israeli shipping company ZIM, vessels flying the Israeli flag and those headed there from docking at its ports, saying the move was a response to the Jewish state’s actions in Gaza.

    Is the article trying to imply hypocrisy here? Lmao.

    isntrael

    Washington ups the pressure Still, allegations about Malaysia’s support for Iran evasion of U.S.  sanctions have been made for years, and long before the latest crisis in the Middle East.  More recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (USEIA), in September, noted that China’s oil imports from Malaysia in the first half of 2023 rose to 1 million barrels a day – a figure that exceeded total production in Malaysia.

    Actually maybe Malaysia increased production imo I think we are rushing too much on our conclusions. thonk

    USEIA pointed to a May 2021 article from the Washington-based Middle East Institute’s website  to explain this discrepancy. The article was titled “Iranian sanctions evasion and the Gulf’s complex oil trade,” and cited news sources like Bloomberg and Reuters as well. “With a heavy discount on Iran’s high-risk, illegal oil exports, buyers in China are purchasing so much that oil tankers are ‘clogging up’ ports in the country,” the article said, referring to a Bloomberg News story for the information about the choked ports.

    Thank you China, very cool. xi-pog

    The Treasury officials’ visit to Malaysia comes less than two weeks after President Joe Biden signed a national security package that included the “21st Century Peace through Strength Act,” which extends the statute of limitations for violations of sanctions to 10 years.

    “Peace through Strength Act” sounds like satire joker-amerikkklap

    In a recent article for The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, research assistant Rebecca Redlich wrote that “Kuala Lumpur is once again displaying its willingness to facilitate Iran’s illicit activity.”

    It’s the free market at work baby. The invisible hand supports Iran and Hamas, what can I say?

    “The United States has repeatedly sought to curb Kuala Lumpur’s growing ties with Iran by sanctioning various Malaysia-based entities,” she said in her article dated April 24.

    Ya’ll repeating what the colonizers did 300 years ago and think no one here will see the ploy for what it is.

    “U.S. officials have focused most of their outreach and punitive actions on areas where Malaysian decisions directly threaten U.S. objectives, such as facilitating illicit Iranian oil sales and creating a permissive environment for sanctions evasion.”

    So much for the free and open trade and markets. oooaaaaaaauhhh

    Again - why should Malaysia care if what they do threaten US objectives? Should a Global South country not advocate for and do stuff that is in their best interests?

    Death to Amerikkka amerikkka

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