Labour may currently have a commanding lead, but a second lacklustre half to the campaign could lead some voters to stay at home, writes political scientist Robert Ford
This is what's keeping me up at night, and also exactly why I think all the predictions of four or five hundred seats for Labour are overblown.
You know, mate, not every political argument you disagree with is 'gaslighting'. 'Gaslighting' is a form of emotional abuse. This article, which says 'It's possible that the Labour vote is quite soft', is not, and I kind of don't believe I have to say this, is not a form of emotional abuse. It is just an article saying 'It's possible that the Labour vote is quite soft'. It's actually critical of Labour, which hardly amounts to a polemic about the benefits of voting for them.
And even within the long and storied genre of neurotic leftwing posting, I think 'The Guardian are deploying subliminal anti-IWW messaging' really stands out.
But they're not wrong either, there's plenty of precedent for the conservatives getting a higher vote share than polls have predicted. We sometimes call it "the shy Tory" effect and revolt there's likely lots of reasons behind it, the fact remains that polls are not a guarantee of anything.