Trump on Sunday called for recusal of the judge presiding over the case that alleges he illegally conspired to overturn his election loss in 2020.
Former President Donald Trump on Sunday called for recusal of the judge presiding over the federal case that alleges he illegally conspired to overturn his election loss to President Joe Biden in 2020.
He should be doing plea deals. The chances he gets found not guilty of 78 felony charges is minimal. His best scenario after pleading not guilty is 6 months to a year of house arrest. And that’s highly unlikely. He will do time.
I think it would be far more fitting a punishment for him to face his remaining few years in absolute misery. None of that “hair”, makeup, luxury, hamberders, women. Left to rot by his children and his whore. No crowds, no adulation, nothing. A pathetic, broken man, never able to escape the confines of his miserable, deeply flawed self. Left only with public humiliation, self pity, and, when the thought is able to penetrate his ironclad narcissism, the knowledge that he will be vilified by history.
Prosecutors don't bring cases they can't win. They just don't do it. It reflects badly on them.
Add the fact that prosecuting a former president is incredibly hard. This guy 100% did all of this shit in public. They have:
Witnesses
Tape of him doing it
Video of him doing it
The actual documents
Witnesses who observed his co-conspirators
Tape of the coverup
Witnesses to the coverup
There's no way anyone is getting away without a felony conviction. Plus, the lawyers involved are buttercups compared to the federal prosecutors.
I know one federal prosecutor. He is a very nice guy, very smart and will not hesitate to throw white collar criminals in jail. They ruin criminals' lives like it's their day job, because it is.
There’s no way anyone is getting away without a felony conviction.
They only need one MAGAt on the jury, and you only get so many challenges to get them out of the pool. It's why he wants to move the case to West Virginia: higher proportion of Trumpsters in the population, better chance of no conviction.
Not a fan of the establishment, but I think they see him as a legitimate threat. The consequence of not holding him accountable is further disillusionment in the institutions that hold our society together.
The chances of him getting a hung jury is actually incredibly high. I doubt they'll weed out all his supporters in jury selection. I honestly don't think they can convict him.
Math time! Let's assume that all people who make it to a jury have an X% chance of never voting to convict Trump regardless of the evidence. In order to be found guilty, trump would have 100*(1-X/100)^12 % chance of being found guilty and 100-last number of getting a hung jury. For reference, if X=10%, Trump has a 28.8% chance of being declared guilty.
But wait! There is more! More indictments! Currently three. Let us assume that if a case is hung, the prosecutor doesn't refile it. Let's take the amount we got from the last problem, and call it Y% of getting a conviction. The chances of all three being hung are (1-Y/100)^3, or 100*(1-(1-X/100)12)3. Again, let us assume X=10%, then there is a 37% chance that all three are hung, or a 63% chance that he goes to prison. More separate indictments mean more protections from MAGAs making on juries.