French election 2024 live: exit poll shows shock win for left-green alliance as far right falls to third
French election 2024 live: exit poll shows shock win for left-green alliance as far right falls to third
This blog has now closed but you can read our full report on the French election results here
You're viewing a single thread.
This is going to be the last warning shot I'm sure.
The far right rise because they are the only ones talking about immigration.
The left won right now. Two things can happen, either the left listen to millions of people screaming for reduced immigration and we never hear from the far right again. Or the left continue to ignore people and think this is the end of it. It won't be the end.
For one, EU immigration policy has already hardened significantly and is now being directly catered to Meloni's far right government. You'll notice the far right hasn't stopped bleating about it.
And the reason for that is that immigration simply cannot be curved effectively without literally solving inequality worldwide. That's why it's such a convenient scapegoat. Xenophobia doesn't need to make sense, and since desperate migrants being smuggled by human traffickers are unresponsive to posturing you can just bang that drum indefinitely.
So we can either explain this effectively to people (and also help improve the inequality bit) or we can resign ourselves to a fascist government elected by racist useful idiots.
Genuine question, is immigration really an issue or just something right-wing tries to prop up as an issue? Where I live the right-wing also campaigned heavily on immigration issue claiming that immigrants are coming and ruining the country. Year after year the average immigration was less than 1% of the entire population and in the special occasion where it went above 1% was when we took in Ukrainian refugees. But right wing kept propping it up until some people started to believe we actually have an immigration issue.
With that I mind I think we should always question whatever right-wing presents because they're not above making shit up. If some right wing politician says the sky is blue I would get a second opinion before believing it.
Immigration is always "an issue" regardless of what your political position is*, but only in the sense that the government should have a policy about it. The policy can be to build infrastructure in advance and create opportunities that benefit both immigrant communities and non-immigrants, or it can be to police the borders more like you're holding back rising sea levels. Not responding in any way leads to instability and "crisis" (or more often, the opposition manufacturers the feeling of crisis).
*except for anarchism
I think you might've missed my point. Policy can be taken as "always as issue" in the same as taxation is "always an issue", because people will always have opinions on how to do things. But my question was more along the lines of there being an actual problem with the current policy or did people just start complaining about immigration because the right wing complains about immigration.
My experience was that people didn't really mind immigration until the right wing started complaining how the current policy is bad and we're letting freeloaders and other questionable individuals in.
1% per year is huge. By the time someone is born and get into the workforce and look at buying a house the population has gone up ~25%.
Yea immigration is an issue depending on how you see it. If you want to keep wages down and house prices up it's good.
If you concerned about increasing wages, having a house, your culture, low crime, less government spending then certain immigration is really bad. People against immigration aren't usually against a doctor coming from a closely alined friendly country. People against immigration is against how it has become an issue, not immigration in general. People want a say on the matter.
But the stats on immigration. Not just the feels as portrayed by a lot of people on the left show there are significant issues with crime and how it impacts working class people, never mind culture changing drastically. But this isn't immigration as a whole, this is some immigration.
But for a lot of people, even talking about it immediately makes you a Nazi. So people vote for people that don't treat them like shit for wanting to keep the way of life as is rather than selling out everything in the life for the gain of businesses and the upper class at the expense of themselves.
This reads exactly like a list of right-wing talking points, no real numbers and just a bunch of fear mongering.
1% per year is huge
I said less than 1%, you present it as 1%.
By the time someone is born and get into the workforce and look at buying a house the population has gone up ~25%.
Which would also happen if you had high birth rates but somehow right-wing groups tend to promote more births. Why they do it is because the overall population in Europe is in decline. Without immigration and at current birth rates Europe's population is projected to go down not up.
Yea immigration is an issue depending on how you see it. If you want to keep wages down and house prices up it's good.
Immigration is not stagnating wages and forcing the cost of living up. Immigration can play a role in that but without you giving any actual numbers I have a hard time blaming immigration for that. You should be asking your government why they're not addressing stagnating wages and rising cost of living instead of blaming it on immigrants.
If you concerned about increasing wages, having a house, your culture, low crime, less government spending then certain immigration is really bad. People against immigration aren't usually against a doctor coming from a closely alined friendly country. People against immigration is against how it has become an issue, not immigration in general. People want a say on the matter.
This is literally the "immigrants are ruining our country" argument.
But the stats on immigration. Not just the feels as portrayed by a lot of people on the left show there are significant issues with crime and how it impacts working class people, never mind culture changing drastically. But this isn't immigration as a whole, this is some immigration.
I love how you said how the left plays on feels and not stats, but I pretty much asked for stats send you're playing for feels. Not a single number, just a bunch of vague "some immigrants are bad".
But for a lot of people, even talking about it immediately makes you a Nazi. So people vote for people that don't treat them like shit for wanting to keep the way of life as is rather than selling out everything in the life for the gain of businesses and the upper class at the expense of themselves.
And this is the crux of the issue. You acknowledge that workers are "selling out everything in the life for the gain of businesses and the upper class at the expense of themselves", but then instead of blaming the wealthy you blame immigrants? That is literally what right-wing groups want. They take legitimate grievances people have and then instead of pointing at the culprits, who also tend to be their party members, they point at the outsiders, immigrants, and say they're to blame.
If that's all you have then I don't think you have an actual immigration problem, just one propped up by the right wing.
This is exactly what I mean.
People have an issue with immigration but you have your talking points. You said them while ignoring concerns and that's the end of it. Yet the issues are still there.
Genuine question, is immigration really an issue
I guess it wasn't a genuine question after all. I told you the issues people have with immigration and you just act like they don't exist.
You want to know why people vote for the far right and I'm telling you. I have personally voted only voted for parties left of every single party that has ever been in power in my country. The last time I voted. I voted for the party that was most concerned about reducing immigration because I think it's that much of an issue.
You was talking about how less than 1% of immigration a year is fine. That was your point. So I used your less than one percentage at least mathematically and did an estimation. If you said less than 0.5 or less than 0.01 I would have used those numbers. You used 1 that's where it came from. You acted like anything less than 1 is fine, don't act like you didn't.
Of course immigration is stagnating wages it's supply and demand. "No one wants to work anymore we need to hire foreigners" no no one wants to do that shitty job at a below market wage, raise your wages and locals will take the job. The actual upper class know how to keep wages down and they do. When working class had actual bargaining power they shit themselves and undermined them.
We live in a capitalist world the labour market will correct itself with a reduction in supply. Dont get things mixed up, I have issues with the government for things but that doesn't mean immigration isn't a problem.
This is literally the "immigrants are ruining our country" argument.
What argument is that then and why is everyone that disagrees with you on the matter not worth listening to?
I'd love some stats. Give me some stats on financial contribution to country, crime, unemployment, cultural integration, based on immigration from country of origin, education and visa type for both first and second generation. Please I'd absolutely love that. But the only thing that is anything close is the Danish study and hidden figures from German and Sweden for crime. People are scared of reporting that because they know its going to show immigration isn't bad. I'd also love to know how the law of supply and demand are broken for housing and labour when it comes it immigration.
I have issue with the wealth and the upper class for a lot of reasons that are apart from the immigration issue. But I also blame them for the immigration issue too.
Problem is the left is so irrational there is no one to talk to. They just do everything of what feels good and live in a bubble.
You think immigration is that much of an issue but then lay out right-wing talking points as the issue and offer literally nothing to back them up. And then you act like I'm not asking genuinely and I should give you the stats about things you can't even properly specify.
I'm going to stick with there's no actual immigration issue you just don't want immigrants.
I don't have a problem with immigration as a concept.
I have an issue with how immigration is being used in large parts of the west currently.
Here you go have a read of this.
https://inquisitivebird.substack.com/p/the-effects-of-immigration-in-denmark
I've seen first hand what happens to wages/jobs and housing and cities because of immigration. Everyone knows about the crime issues from certain countries but most governments won't release that data.
The only reason they are "right wing talking points" is because the left are living in denial. This is the wokness feeling of immigration must be good because we say it's good. Yet whenever data comes out about immigration (when broken down not over all) it shoes bad things.
So please provide me with evidence. Maybe you will change my view. Like I said I used to vote left but seeing as the left live in denial. The right as you call them have figures showing immigration so bad. I'm going to have to go on what I've seen in reality and what the figures say. I'm not going to live in some leftie make believe land where every immigrant is an upstanding university educated, secular, LGBT loving, non sexist who believes in western values and integrates perfectly.
Immigration is legit just a scapegoat for the right and in reality isn't that big of an issue. People in France agreed as well, even though NR was only shouting about immigration (literally, it's unclear what their other policies are apart from the classic right-wing policies of lowering taxes for corporations), and also ranked #1 in polls, immigration came out 8th in the "most important issues" ranking poll.
It's not 2016 anymore, immigration has decreased significantly since the big flood.
People don't want a far right government. The fact they are willing to vote for one just shows how much of the population do care about immigration and feel like they need to vote for the far right because there is no one else.
Countries where the left have hardened up their immigration views has caused a dramatic decrease in votes for the far right.
While yes, I don't doubt that people do care about immigration and that's why they vote far-right, the point of my original comment was that a lot of this "anti-immigration" sentiment is just an easy scapegoat by the right. It's something they puff up, blame most issues on then try to get votes by promising to deal with that said issue they pretty much manufactured, while leaving actual issues that they're going to make worse unaddressed (like low minimum wages, tax cuts for the rich, weakening of workers rights, mass privatization, etc).
Liberals (left doesn't exist in most of EU still) rarely ever vow to do anything about immigration precisely of how overblown it is, and yeah they do lose votes because of it from people who do end up believing the far-right, the "easy" answer if you will.
And here's a fun tidbit - most of the voters who vote far-right in European countries (checked Poland and French but undoubtedly there are many more examples) come from rural regions, which are the least affected by immigration.
Of course a lot of people that talk about reducing immigration, and not do anything about it. Usually the liberals and the right. They wont actually fix it because it is good for business.
The hope if by voting for something like the far right it shows the left parties. "Hey if you don't do something about immigration you won't get our vote". It's now a standoff. If we have to get a far right government in to stop immigration, well that's personally something I'm happy to vote for. But I would much much rather a left government that wants to drastically reduce immigration.
its a media problem, always has been. Web media is going through the same chaos that broadcast media did at the turn of the 20th century: those willing to use the new media to lie and defraud people will do so until enough people die that the powers that be crack down'
Immigration can be a problem. One thing you might notice is the far right when they do gain power they never "solve" immigration, they consolidate power and hand power to oligarchs. Oligarchs on the other hand always benefit from immigration. So what they do is create an "immigrant class" and treat both immigrant and non-immigrant groups worse.
It's because immigrants carry the symptoms of poor people, people don't like having homeless in the streets but openly saying "we're a party that's against poor people" doesn't get votes like being against immigrants does.
This, and also the far right sells the idea that the nation is actually great and rich but the immigrants cause all the poverty and the poverty will go away if the immigrants are expelled
Denying entry for people in need can't be the answer. Honestly, it's unfair that we were lucky enough to be born into a stable country. It's unfair that other people have to live under dictators looking only for their personal interest. It's unfair that people have to live under the consequences of global power struggles and it's also unfair that Western countries exploit other nations and then don't lend assistance when everything turns to shit.
How can you justify sending away these people that are fleeing from warzones or due to global warming. They are losing family and their homes and yet, they spent their life worrying while we can go to restaurants, cafes, play in parks, go hiking, swimming or biking without ever having to worry.
Leaning into the immigration policy of the right cannot be the answer, there has to be another solution.
Keep banging on the walls of Fortress Europe!
There are many ways to address immigration. And not all of them consist on not letting people in.
You can take in consideration what the average person thinks about immigrants and fix that:
- Immigrants are stealing our jobs.
- Immigrants are criminals.
I'm gonna try and think outside the box instead of the normal "it's poverty that makes them criminals! They need better social support" which is probably true, but won't convince the far right voters to vote for you.
The first one is the easiest to solve of the two. Since in most western countries, immigrants coming to work is actually good for the economy, since the native population has a declining birth rate and is aging, so they need working people that don't come from births (immigrants). But you can still:
- Enforce that employers pay the minimum wage
- Have a higher minimum wage for immigrants, so employers only hire them if they're actually better than the natives (or there are no natives applying for the job). And while we're at it, raise the minimum wage for everyone.
- Only allow immigrants without a special visa to work in certain sectors (for example those that native people don't want to do).
I know 2/3 of those treat immigrants as "lower" people, but it's still better than illegal immigration or don't letting them in.
For the second one, the main problem is that 1st generation immigrants are not the issue, but their children are. Because their children were born in that country so most of the time they're citizens and you can't just deport them like 1st generation. The only way I can think of to fix this is don't give them citizenship until they've passed an actually hard exam that shows they've integrated into the culture, and have a clean record. They would be "2nd class citizens" at that point. 2nd class and normal citizens are legally the exact same, with only one difference. If a 2nd class has children after having committed a crime, their children are also 2nd class. If they have a clean record, it is assumed that they have integrated in the local culture and their children are born as normal citizens.
These ideas probably have a thousand things i didn't consider, but I believe they're better than not letting immigrants in.
I appreciate that you put some thought into this but woooooof you have terrible ideas. It's like you looked at the "it's poverty that makes them criminals! They need better social support" and then specifically did everything you could to form systems that solve it in a different way even though you were correct the first time, they need better social support.
There was no reason to shy from the truth. Immigration is good with social support. Also should be better social support for non-immigrants in poverty too. You don't need to worry about "convincing far right voters" because the far right doesn't come to power if you have a fair, transparent, and low-inequality economy and government programs that serve everyone well.
I didn't say that "poverty makes them criminals" was wrong. I know it is true. Was trying to think what it would get to take an alt right's vote.