The Dangerous Illusion of a Presidential Third Party in 2024
The Dangerous Illusion of a Presidential Third Party in 2024
Really you don't need to read more than one chart:
If you vote for anyone other than Harris, you're voting for Trump:
You're viewing part of a thread.
In the US the fucking right wing has 50% in the polls. What are you talking about?
~50% of the people ate voting for a lying, narcissistic Nazi. One of your supreme courts justices took "presents " from someone who has a hitler singed version of "Mein Kampf" in his possession. Right besides ohter Nazi memorabilia.
And your concern is, that it would be easier for a right wing minority to gain power? You have a right wing majority.
We ate shoked over here in Germany that our far right has more then 20% in election results. Your far right has 50% and one of your presidential candidates represents them.
We had a right wing government under Trump, yet somehow Trump didn't achieve most of his goals.
He couldn't repeal progressive health care legislation. He couldn't leave NATO. He never built that stupid wall on the Mexican border.
He did manage to enact tariffs against China. But only because Democrats supported them too.
Finally, he got a tax cut for the rich without support from Democrats. That's his main legacy.
And that's the difference between your country and mine. In yours, a junior party can achieve its goals. That's great when you agree with those goals. Not so great when you don't agree with them, like in Israel right now.
In the US, often even a majority is not enough to get what you want. It means progress is very slow, but we've avoided several potential catastrophes.
He got abortion rights overthrown, handled the pandemic so badly, that the rest of the world laughed at the US, and got himself and his family richer by talking money and presents from foreign powers.
Your argument boils down to: in the US political system it is hard to change anything and therefore we are protected from "worse"? Does this argument still stand with the supreme court ruling about presidential immunity and trumps statements about dictator on day one or "you never have to vote again"? Project 25?
So, in my country we are moving towards a livable feature for citizens, in your country you are stuck with a system that only benefits the wealthy. And every approach that could change that will be undermjnedby right wing lunatics and their donors.
He didn't get abortion rights overthrown single-handedly. Anti-abortion activists have been working on that for decades, starting with the appointment of Clarence Thomas in 1991. Trump was simply responsible for the final step.
Progress is slow. But in a democracy, your opponents will inevitably have some victories. Fortunately those are slow too.
If your country is making progress towards a better future, then you should thank your fellow voters not your election system. Because a different group of voters could use the same election system to make things much worse, and in fact they have done so elsewhere. What have people like Trump achieved when they won elections in your country?
Anyway, the US is stuck with American voters. So I'm glad our election system enforces patience.
Anyway, the US is stuck with American voters. So I'm glad our election system enforces patience.
I take that ;)
But srsly, it is not voters or voting system. It is both.
Imagine there would be a MAGA party with equal chances like the Reps, how would that change the policies of those parties? And would this influence the voters behavior? That is not a rethoric question, it is a thought play. I, as an outsider, would assume that the extreme right wingers would unite under the MAGA flag and their policies would adapt accordingly while the Republicans would go back to their kind of normal.
There are already factions of "normal" Republicans and "MAGA" Republicans under the Republican banner. Their disagreements are internal but occasionally visible. They were on full display earlier this year, when they couldn't decide who would lead the House.
Another example: this week the Republican speaker advanced a MAGA friendly position on the budget and then immediately withdrew it, presumably due to internal pressure from the "normal" faction.
Exactly. And there comes in the issue: if you want to vote conservative you have to take the far right bullshit. There is no in between. There is no "conservative without that nazi bullshit". So, if they could separate bit still have some power in the sense of seats in the parliaments, would that impact the political landscape?
If you are a "normal" conservative, you can vote for the "normal" conservative in the primary. And there are plenty of places where most conservatives are "normal" conservatives, like New Hampshire and Maine. They tend to elect "normal" Republicans to office, like Sununu and Collins.
Whereas places where most conservatives are MAGA, like Florida, tend to elect MAGA Republicans to office, like Gaetz. When "normal" conservatives run in Florida primaries, you can vote for them but they will lose.
So it's not true that "There is no conservative without that nazi bullshit". In fact, if you wanted a non-MAGA conservative president, you could have voted for Nikki Haley. But she was ultimately eliminated by MAGA voters.
There are many more like her in power elsewhere in government. Unfortunately they are mostly cowards (like Haley herself), and prefer to remain silent than to challenge MAGA in public.
I see your point. But that is such a toxic environment, and as you mentioned this can be observed from a far, that I would assume many prefer to stay under the radar to be able to at least something and not thrown under the bus by other Republicans.
Having more parties solves this part of the issue. And if the MAGA party or the Republicans end up with more votes is a completely different thing. And a thing I am scared to think about
I think it might make more sense to view MAGA as the "senior" partner in the Republican party at the national level, whereas normal conservatives are the "junior" partner at the national level. Hypothetically I think MAGA could get 30-40% of the national vote, with 10-20% for normal Republicans and 50% for Democrats.
That means normal conservatives have some influence in the party overall, but ultimately they are not in control and are always at risk of being discarded. At the local level, normal conservatives might be the senior partner or not exist at all, depending on where you look.
I feared as much.
It is getting late over here, so thanks for the great discussion!
Amd I wish you good look in a few weeks. Feeling with you over there