The Dangerous Illusion of a Presidential Third Party in 2024
The Dangerous Illusion of a Presidential Third Party in 2024
Really you don't need to read more than one chart:
If you vote for anyone other than Harris, you're voting for Trump:
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Exactly. And there comes in the issue: if you want to vote conservative you have to take the far right bullshit. There is no in between. There is no "conservative without that nazi bullshit". So, if they could separate bit still have some power in the sense of seats in the parliaments, would that impact the political landscape?
If you are a "normal" conservative, you can vote for the "normal" conservative in the primary. And there are plenty of places where most conservatives are "normal" conservatives, like New Hampshire and Maine. They tend to elect "normal" Republicans to office, like Sununu and Collins.
Whereas places where most conservatives are MAGA, like Florida, tend to elect MAGA Republicans to office, like Gaetz. When "normal" conservatives run in Florida primaries, you can vote for them but they will lose.
So it's not true that "There is no conservative without that nazi bullshit". In fact, if you wanted a non-MAGA conservative president, you could have voted for Nikki Haley. But she was ultimately eliminated by MAGA voters.
There are many more like her in power elsewhere in government. Unfortunately they are mostly cowards (like Haley herself), and prefer to remain silent than to challenge MAGA in public.
I see your point. But that is such a toxic environment, and as you mentioned this can be observed from a far, that I would assume many prefer to stay under the radar to be able to at least something and not thrown under the bus by other Republicans.
Having more parties solves this part of the issue. And if the MAGA party or the Republicans end up with more votes is a completely different thing. And a thing I am scared to think about
I think it might make more sense to view MAGA as the "senior" partner in the Republican party at the national level, whereas normal conservatives are the "junior" partner at the national level. Hypothetically I think MAGA could get 30-40% of the national vote, with 10-20% for normal Republicans and 50% for Democrats.
That means normal conservatives have some influence in the party overall, but ultimately they are not in control and are always at risk of being discarded. At the local level, normal conservatives might be the senior partner or not exist at all, depending on where you look.
I feared as much.
It is getting late over here, so thanks for the great discussion!
Amd I wish you good look in a few weeks. Feeling with you over there