Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations
Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.
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Just fucking vote. Polls don't win elections. Plus, the majority of the most recent polls are backed by red wavers. I wouldn't put much stock into them regardless, but especially not the most recent ones.
Polling aggregators like Nate Silver and 538 take those Republican leans into account.
You can read about it and their methodology here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding
Edit: lol, love the "I was told there would be no fact checking" attitude on the downvotes.
No matter what Nate says and how many times you link his website, polls do not matter.
ETA: maybe, just maybe, you're being downvoted because you keep linking the same article from the same pollster to defend polling.
They’re already getting ready with the same excuses they used for Hillary. If Kamala loses, it definitely can’t be a result of the fact that Dems seem to actively despise the left.