Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations
Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.
Just fucking vote. Polls don't win elections. Plus, the majority of the most recent polls are backed by red wavers. I wouldn't put much stock into them regardless, but especially not the most recent ones.
Polling aggregators like Nate Silver and 538 take those Republican leans into account.
You can read about it and their methodology here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding
Edit: lol, love the "I was told there would be no fact checking" attitude on the downvotes.
No matter what Nate says and how many times you link his website, polls do not matter.
ETA: maybe, just maybe, you're being downvoted because you keep linking the same article from the same pollster to defend polling.
They’re already getting ready with the same excuses they used for Hillary. If Kamala loses, it definitely can’t be a result of the fact that Dems seem to actively despise the left.
How is anyone planning on voting for this giant piece of shit? 2016? Ok I could sympathize with one or two people. But in 2024!? Jesus fuck, you have to be a real knuckle dragging hood wearing degenerate to try and make that case. How about trump and everyone that loves him just move to Texas and build a wall? I’m sure the entire world would be grateful.
It's the result of settling for "not trump".
To some people "good" is binary. So they do think both parties will fuck them over economically and not actually fix the shit that honestly the majority of Americans agree need fixed.
So all the economic policy is a write off.
That leaves social issues they don't really understand because they were raised vaguely religious and have fallen for right wing propaganda.
All politicians are corrupt liars
Is something you will hear damn near anytime politics come up in deep red areas. Which is why yelling about how trump is a corrupt liar to your face turns blue doesn't accomplish anything.
They know that, they're not even in denial about.
To be clear, I'm voting D. But the county I grew up has never voted less than 95% for trump.
That's what they're ok with voting for him tho. But if Dems ran a charismatic progressive who people believed was different and authentic?
Well, look what Obama did
While moderates have favored the Democratic candidate in each of the past five elections, Barack Obama gained the support of more voters in the ideological “middle” than did either John Kerry or Al Gore before him. He won at least half the votes of independents (52% vs. 49% for Kerry), suburban voters (50% vs. 47% for Kerry), Catholics (54% vs. 47% for Kerry), and other key swing groups in the electorate.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2008/11/05/inside-obamas-sweeping-victory/
His gains wasn't from progressives, we always show up. His gains were because people in those deep red areas believe all politicians are corrupt liars, and if a rare one shows up that seems authentic, they don't give a fuck about party labels.
I was a big Bernie fan :( you make some great points though. The big problem I see is it’s not just a difference of ideology, you literally have one candidate calling himself a day 1 dictator and shitting on poor and brown people and women, and the other not doing that. How can you go for ketchup steak Hitler? I guess if the Old Testament gives you a boner for all the slaves and genocide and stuff, then that’s your answer.
I have family: TL;DR they want more Christianity in power, several specifically WASPs, and somethingsomething the end justifies the means to structure that authority.
I think it's the same sort of reactions that you see on the vote pattern for this post or anything else suggesting Kamala might not win.
People don't want (or maybe nowadays lack the capacity) to hear/read/engage critically with news they find upsetting. So you get these echo chambers, immune to outside info.
From someone who doesn't follow non-Conservative news, inflation is absurd, housing is increasingly out of reach and uncontrolled immigration is a problem. I personally think some of these are global issues, some are deep systemic and other than immigration, I'd be stunned if the republicans actually addressed those issues. But, the same mental habits that lead Lemmy to downvote statistical reporting because we don't like what it says are the same that prevent trump voters from changing.
I don’t think you’re entirely wrong there. I think you describe the human condition in a lot of ways. I’ve felt for a long time the biggest problems are socioeconomic and classist rather than purely political- and those issues are only indirectly addressed by the currently political spectrum (at best).
The problem is, their simulations are based on their polling, and their polling is being manipulated.
As I noted elsewhere:
Yes, Trump appears to have momentum, but it also appears to be a phantom momentum driven by right leaning polling organizations.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-hungry-harris-campaign-early?utm_source=publication-search
"I now count 27 Republican or right-aligned entities in the polling averages:
American Greatness, Daily Mail, co/efficent, Cygnal, Echelon, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Mitchell Communications, Napolitan Institute, Noble Predictive, On Message, Orbital Digital, Public Opinion Strategies, Quantus, Rasmussen, Redfield & Wilton, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, Trafalgar, TIPP, Victory Insights, Wall Street Journal.
In September 12 of the 24 polls of North Carolina were conducted by red wave pollsters. Check out the last 4 polls released in PA on 538. All are red wavers."
Yes, but their "house effects" (how much their polls lean Republican or Democrat) are accounted for by every worthwhile polling aggregator.
If they were just taking the averages and spitting out results, well, it'd be nonsensical. You could maybe argue that Republican pollsters have tweaked their systems to be more trumpy but that'd be a pretty huge red flag and mark you as completely non trustworthy in your professional field.
You can read Silver's more in depth and interesting explanation here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding
My reading of Nate Silver's article suggests that the OC (original commenter's) comment is right though. Quote from the article:
the movement could just be random variation in the polls — if Harris really is ahead nationally by 3 points and in the Blue Wall states by about 1 point we’d expect her to have better and worse weeks that vary around that average.
Sounds like phantom momentum to me. And Nate also agrees with the part about there being Republican bias in the polls,
First, are polls from Republican-aligned firms more favorable to Trump this cycle? Yes, ... Harris is ahead by 3.0 points nationally in this simple average. But when you look at only Republican-aligned firms, she’s up by only 2.0 points. Removing those polls from the average brings Harris up to a 3.4 point national lead. These aren’t huge differences, but they’re not nothing. Combined with a similar pattern in state-level averages, polls from Republican-leaning firms could push polling averages — and by extension forecasts — rightward.
This last sentence is important so I'll repeat it,
Combined with a similar pattern in state-level averages, polls from Republican-leaning firms could push polling averages — and by extension forecasts — rightward.
Of course Nate believes, as you state, that he's able to account for it by adjusting for the house effects and such. Which would overcome the flood.
He then seems to go on and justify that his house effects are accurate by comparing with pollsters whose averages are excluding Republican polls (thus avoiding the bias completely) and saying that he winds up with the same result as them.
However, it's really interesting to note that most of the polling averages he compares with don't include as many GOP polls.
In fact it's Nate's own average that is the lowest in favor of Harris. In fact I think 538 is the only other one that does even include those GOP polls.
And somehow these are the ones that show the GOP candidate with a lead.
In fact, VoteHub - the one using only high quality nonpartisan polls - actually has Harris winning the Electoral College currently., 270 vs 268: https://polls.votehub.com/
Electoral College average
Harris 270, Trump 268
National Average
Harris +2.3
Tipping Point (MI)
Harris +0.1
Electoral College Bias
R +2.2Now Nate can easily justify this as a tiny difference within the margin of error. And he's be right, of course. But I feel that this shows, even after all the hard and brilliant work by Nate and folks, the flooding by the GOP polls seem to be off by just enough to push things over the edge. Ignore them for more accurate data, and the picture looks different.
FivethirtyEight - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)
Information for FivethirtyEight:
MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: High - United States of America
Wikipedia about this sourceSearch topics on Ground.News
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Harris reacted by doubling down that "Nothing would change between a Biden and a Harris white house".
"If you are hurting, in trouble, demanding that something - anything - should change about any aspect of life in America ... vote for Trump, cause I want to keep everything the same."
Harris's advisors reportedly were bashing their heads against the wall screaming "don't say that out loud!"
Lol at people downvoting what they don’t want to hear.
On a positive note, Harris is still leading 4/7 swing states in the WaPo averages: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/
Down outing because anyone watching polls has seen floods of bullshit polls flood the arena in the past few weeks. They're totally made up and inaccurate, and in cahoots with the Trump campaign to try and give credence to another attempt and overthrowing the government by crying about the election results.
I’ve seen the reports. I highly doubt any of the arm chair statisticians (who have never taken a day of mathematical or proof-level stats) have a clue what they are talking about. The polls’ histories and lean are factored into 538’s averages. They are not new to this.
And how many polls are left leaning? The graph posted a couple of days ago on midwest claims 35% are right leaning, and a correlation with the drop in support for Harris. What it doesn’t say is the proportion of democratic polls, and there really isn’t a correlation over the length of history shown.
Hard to make informed decisions when half the information is hidden. (But arm chair statisticians don’t recognize the issue do they?)
It's because right-wing pollsters are flooding the landscape with fudged polls. They're literally all liars, why do we trust their polling methodologies. Seems to me they're just setting up for the eventual loss so they can point to this polling during the Steal 2.0.
Bingo!
Ehhhhhh, yes they are putting out more polls but all reputable polling aggregators, including 538, account for them and their biases.
You can read about it here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding
All polls are useless:
This article is pure silliness but extrapolating from it.to say all polls are useless is to miss even the point of the article!
Yes, national polls aren't particularly helpful because of the electoral college. Which means state level polling is what matters. And polls 6 months out, are not helpful. This is why no polling aggregator is still including them.
Meanwhile, in reality, the polling aggregators pretty much called every 2022 midterm race. In 2020, 538 "correctly identified the winners of the presidency (Joe Biden), the U.S. Senate (Democrats, after the Georgia runoffs) and the U.S. House (Democrats, although by a narrower-than-expected margin). They were also largely accurate in identifying the winners in individual states and races, identifying the outcome correctly in 48 of 50 presidential states (we also missed the 2nd Congressional District in Maine), 32 of 35 Senate races1 and 417 of 435 House races."
Yeah, it's kind of amazing.
If there's a good poll for Kamala, it's upvotes to the moon. If it's a good one from trump, voted to the underworld.
That sort of hive mind, shut out anything I dislike attitude is the same attitude that makes half the country ignore any and all criticism of trump.