2d ago

What do you think about the west?

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Putin probably wishes they were the west. He's not dumb enough to side with them now, I don't think. Given I feel he's learned thats never going to play out in his favor, but I also think that if he didn't have to contend with another global capitalist power, he definitely wouldn't be so buddy buddy with China and NK. It will be interesting so see what happens when the west falls. How will Russia react to being completely overshadowed by China? Will they start interfering with China's work in building up "3rd world" countries? Will they start to attempt their own imperialism? A capitalist nation simply will not be able to compete with China. When the new world power comes about and it's a socialist nation, more and more will follow suit. Assuming the world survived the next few decades, and China takes reigns as the global communist superpower, I feel the fall of the west will be like the world developing an immunity to the resurgence of global capitalism.
- I think you're jumping the gun a bit. Russia has no real reason or drive to betray China.
- I'm curious about that as well. Good news here is that most people in Russia feel positively about USSR, and communism is largely seen as the more correct system. A fairly recent poll by Levada said that 75% of Russians have expressed increasingly positive opinions about the Soviet Union https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/24/75-of-russians-say-soviet-era-was-greatest-time-in-countrys-history-poll-a69735
  And another poll (in Russian) shows that most people think the Soviet economic system was more correct https://www.levada.ru/2021/09/10/kakoj-dolzhna-byt-rossiya-v-predstavlenii-rossiyan
  I imagine being closer to China geopolitically and economically will only make these views stronger. A lot of people have to be wondering if Russia could be like China today if different decisions were made in the 90s. It's also worth noting that economic structure in Russia isn't actually dramatically different from China either. Russia never fully embraced liberal policies and the state remains at the commanding heights of the economy. A 2023 World Bank study gives a pretty good overview of this. In particular, it distinguishes between businesses of the state (BOS), that are at least 10% government owned by some government, and state owned enterprises (SOE), which are majority owned or more, and controlled, by the government. And another study has a chart showing SOE in Russia compared with China.
  If KPRF continues to gain traction, it's plausible they could take power at some point. It's not a terribly principled party right now, but at least they are genuinely socialist.
  
  The age discrepancy is a bit annoying. In that the younger people (around my age) prefer a “Western model” (if the translation is correct in the second article). But that Western model is trying to subjugate them, I do wonder where this perspective comes from. Maybe the current government is just not doing enough to court the younger generations, maybe it also has to do with the education system (depends on how the curriculum is created and taught) and interactions with the west (social media, NGOs, etc.). I am genuinely curious, I know Russia is definitely not a perfect country nor is it socialist, but I have to wonder where this perspective from younger people comes from.
  
  Unfortunately, a lot of people bought into the whole narrative how people in the US are living their best lives. Meanwhile, older people of having lived in USSR, and they know what it was like from personal experience. I do expect this will start changing going forward cause of the rift with the west, and China becoming more prominent in terms of Russian politics. Interestingly, there's now a lot of tourism from Russia to DPRK happening now too, and most people have positive things to say about it.
  
  Are they genuinely socialists? My, I guess wrong impression, was that they were more of a controlled opposition, any reading on this you can provide?
  
  I don't get the impression that they're controlled opposition, just that their leadership is anemic. This is a fairly reasonable overview of them https://jamestown.org/program/the-russian-communist-party-the-view-from-the-left/
  
  Thanks comrade
  
  Thanks for the resource, the article dates from 1997. Do you have a more recent article on them or would you say not a lot changed inside the party in the past 28 years?
  
  I haven't followed too closely to be honest. As far as I know their position hasn't changed significantly over the years, and it's largely the same people in charge.
  
  Got it. If I get some free time I might dig around a bit to learn more as I am not that familiar with Russian politics. Unfortunately as I can’t speak Russian, not sure I’ll find anything worthwhile
  
  Unfortunately, English media coverage is scant, and mostly negative as you'd expect.
- I'd love to have your hope... let's hope the PRC's leadership is competent enough to navigate the coming conflicts with the USA and it's vassals.
  
  I remain doubtful on that front considering the result of forcing a war with China... doesn't really matter because we're just all dead then. Like the entire world.
  Yeah, "proxy wars" and such. China isn't taking that bait though. The US keeps whining on about Taiwan, but I see zero evidence of an "aggressive, forced" takeover of the island. (And yes, takeover is loosely used there. If the idea of states and sovereignty is "real" then China "invading Taiwan" is impossible. Yes, I understand... everyone knows what I mean. "Liberals in the walls" moment)
  
  If the U.S. forces a war with China, China would most likely easily when, especially before nukes are launched.
  
  I assume you meant win not when
  While we can all hope that is the case... I think you misunderstand what nukes are there for. In the US' case anyway.
  There's no real strategy to the nukes... it's just "attack us and we're losing? Nuke. So don't even think about it." That's the entire concept of mutually assured destruction. Nuclear armed nations with properly hardened nukes (which the US absolutely has and China, I assume, has equivalent nukes. In the ground, under the sea, on stand by for planes as well) all exist under the constant implicit and also explicit threat of what I wrote above. They are called deterrence missiles in the US. Deterrence against other nuclear armed nations even thinking about a first strike nuke or invasion.
  I suppose the only "what if" is "what if the US loses horribly abroad. But the mainland isn't attacked by nukes (or something else) and there is no invasion?" Maybe that's what you meant?
  It's still plausible to me that the US president smashes that button. We aren't exactly known for having sane, rational people in that position. But that's about the only scenario I can see direct US/China confrontation without nuclear exchange. If the US fucks around with, I dunno, Taiwan and immediately China shuts it down. Maybe the US takes the L. Still, over the long term if such a conflict begins... nuclear exchange seems inevitable. From the US side starting it due to losing.
  
  I understand that nuclear weapons exist for the U.S. to use as a last resort to destroy the world to prevent the good guys from truly winning, in the end.
  I don't think that nuclear weapons are as big of a threat as the U.S. parades them around to be, or as comrades say they are.
  I'm not saying the U.S. would never launch nuclear weapons, or that we should approach it with no caution, I just think it's unlikely that the bourgeoisie would actually use them.
  But people aren't 100 percent rational, either.
  
  Again, while I would like to be hopeful... I really can't express enough how much I genuinely think they would absolutely push the button. I think a lot of these people are so wrapped up in their ideology (look how Trump is just straight up breaking shit he doesn't understand. Sometimes even accidentally doing good stuff) and they're so lost in some fantasy world resulting from like 60 straight years of neoliberal and libertarian jerkoff sessions that they are detached enough and/or deranged enough to do it. Like true radical thought processes of "No, I'd rather be dead than..." insert whatever situation is happening or they imagine is happening. Like if China is just steamrolling every single US Navy vessel within 1000km of China's shores (which, btw, I personally think is justified. The US would certainly never tolerate the opposite. A Chinese aircraft carrier just setting up anchor 1000km from Hawaii)... I dunno. Maybe the US takes that. That's the one situation I could see restraint happening.
  Any sort of perceived "encroachment" on US territory becomes much more certain in my mind. The "losing abroad" situation also relies on their mindset which, if you listen to them, is basically "Wow, how could China dare have planes and ships in the South CHINA Sea?!"
  If their actions follow their ideology and statements... they really do see China having sovereignty and expressing it in much (MUCH) less overt ways than the US does as an affront to the US. I can't read their minds, but their words certainly indicate that anything China does feels like an existential threat to them and must be responded to.
  Unfortunately I see this sentiment escalating and not deescalating. The US media diet is just "Bad things because China china china Russia! China china china cuba russia China Venezuela Iran china china china" 24/7 non stop. The politicians who you'd think would know that the media is bullshit and only exists to help them do evil shit would realize like "Ok, yeah. I want to fuck China over, but.. we can't do this thing." and yet, I don't think many of them realize it. They eat the propaganda and gobble it down the same as normal Americans with no political power. Everyone in charge here is a legitimate fucking moron. And we're only slated to get dumber (less educated)...
  
  Not sure why you're downvoted. They're making direct counters to U.S naval policy. Drones, submarines, unveiling sixth gen bombers specifically, etc. They vastly outnumber them in manpower and soon ships. We learned from Ukraine that reliability and force wins out over western wunderwaffe.
  
  I've read that China even has the technology to remotely detect and shut down nuclear missiles, or scramble, disable or short them out. Or at the very least, identify or shoot them before they are truly primed.
  I'm not particularly worried about the U.S. firing nuclear weapons at China, but I'm not nonchalant about it, either.
  That's why I figure that China would be the safest place in the world if/when World War 3 or nuclear war breaks out.

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