Smartphones and computers are now spared from Trump's reciprocal tariffs.

I split this evolving situation according to different scenarios and try to weight their relative probability. What’s the motive, where’s the gain?

A) 80% Some variation of pure incompetence where they tried some shit with whatever aim and weren’t prepared for the hard pushback they got served quickly and decisively. Current events are capitulation, at least for a moment.

B) 15% We are in a Russia-like scenario where this administration needs to govern from fear : population fear deportation and can’t elect another government and fear from the companies that he can crash anything at will without remorse : pay regularly to avoid the destruction of your business model. Mafia protection tax will be lucrative for the few people at the very top.

C) 5% Wider destruction of society with genocide and a new flavour of slavery. Luckily this one is difficult and stoping at a mid point, pivoting to B, is easier. Achieving stability in a “network city” scenario doesn’t seems plausible to me : one small example: try to manufacture stuff to give your ruler class quality healthcare without any scale because war killed so much people… modern stuff is outrageously complicated.