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Westminster Voting Intention: Con 24% (-4) | Lab 48% (+2) | Lib Dem 11% (+2) | Other 17% (-1) Via Deltapoll.

twitter.com /DeltapollUK/status/1681236042131677188

🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is twenty-four percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.

Con 24% (-4)

Lab 48% (+2)

Lib Dem 11% (+2)

Other 17% (-1)

Fieldwork: 14th - 17th July 2023 | Sample: 1,000 GB adults | (Changes from 7th-10th July 2023)

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 🌳 24.0% 119
LAB 🌹 48.0% 425
LD 🔶 11.0% 47
REFUK ➡️ 6.0% 0
Green 🌍 5.0% 1
SNP 🎗️ 3% 32
PC 💮 1% 4

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 🌳 44.7% 376 24.0% 0 309 -309 67
LAB 🌹 33.0% 197 48.0% 320 0 +320 517
LIB 🔶 11.8% 8 11% 13 0 +13 21
Reform ➡️ 2.1% 0 6% 0 0 +0 0
Green 🌍 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 🎗️ 4.0% 48 3.3% 4 29 -25 23
PlaidC 💮 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other ⬜️ 1.1% 0 2.2% 1 0 +1 1
N.Ire ⬜️ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
12% 34% 9% 2% 9% 34%

PrincipleFish

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8 comments
  • That would be a brutal election result. I'd hope it'd inspire Starmer to be more radical but it is more likely to entrench him on the right of the party and suppress any kind of dissent.

    • I think whats worse is, looking at and putting in the regional info from their data table, other than the Wales Green party numbers...this one actually feels right, loads of other polls the Scotland numbers have been all over the place, low numbers of people and odd % turning up, but this one doesn't have anything glaring out at me that's horrifically and clearly sampling error, even Flavible's more uniform and conservative model is absolutely brutal at these numbers, and these numbers are what, 1-2% up or down from the average over the last week or so.

      This is BEFORE we have an election campaign and Purdah, we know Rishi isn't the greatest campaigner and he clearly doesn't like questions, PMQs or being questioned and that all thats going to happen to him for WEEKS during the election.

      Dare we start to hope?

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