Bulletins and News Discussion from August 5th to August 11th, 2024 - LGBT - COTW: Iraq
Bulletins and News Discussion from August 5th to August 11th, 2024 - LGBT - COTW: Iraq
Well, Iran and their allies' response may happen sometime this week and apparently they aren't talking to the US in order to negotiate how and where they will hit Israel (and Shoigu arrived in Tehran rather auspiciously), the Bangladeshi government just fell, F16s have been given to Ukraine, there are fascist riots in the UK, and Japan just had its worst stock fall since 1987 and seems to be taking several other countries/corporations with it. I don't really know where to look right now.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Iraq! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
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The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Rybar discussing the probability that this is not Ukraine's primary attack, and that a second much larger attack is coming. Also putting forwards the same idea that was discussed here that this is Ukraine grabbing land ahead of negotiations to take place later.
spoiler
🇷🇺🇺🇦 On dangerous illusions about the offensive capabilities of the AFU
As the situation in the Kursk Region becomes relatively stabilized, there may be an impression that the offensive potential of the AFU in this direction has dried up, and it will not be too difficult to dislodge them from the captured border settlements.
However, this is erroneous and quite dangerous. Moreover, there is a certain set of characteristic signs that indirectly indicate that the main strike of the Ukrainian formations is still ahead.
▪️The concentrations of enemy forces near the Russian border have not gone anywhere, and the probability of a new offensive remains. Moreover, relatively large troop movements have been noticed in the Ukrainian rear, usually observed during the formation of groupings.
▪️The promised debut of the transferred American F-16 fighters has not yet taken place, and it is highly likely that the Ukrainian command is saving them not just like that. The version is supported by the fact that the Kyiv regime recently made large purchases of aviation fuel with delivery specifically in September.
▪️During past major offensives, the AFU always delivered two strikes: in 2022 in the Kherson and Kharkiv directions, and in 2023 in the Artemivsk and Zaporizhia directions. Therefore, it is not excluded that the enemy will try to attack again, taking advantage of the redeployment of Russian Armed Forces reinforcements from other sectors.
From a military point of view, such plans may raise questions. However, if we very carefully assume that the Kyiv regime really wants to reach negotiations by the end of the year under the pressure of its Western sponsors, then it clearly needs some trump cards for this.
The capture of the territories of the "old" Russian regions fits perfectly into this logic, as well as attempts at landings (https://t.me/rybar/62603) on Kinburn and Tendra Spit to create a threat to communications in Crimea. This is exactly what the Ukrainian formations are currently undertaking.
❗️Therefore, it is too early to relax. Yes, the AFU are no longer what they were in 2022, but the enemy has not yet lost its offensive capabilities.
Overconfidence and hasty conclusions that there is no one to fight in the so-called Ukraine lead to sad consequences like those we observed in the border area a few days ago.
Rybar always goes full Doomer the second ukraine starts pushing back.
It's possible, but they've already sent 10-15000 troops into this, and I think they at most have 45k reserves. Sure, they could pull off 1-2 other offensives if they didn't worry about logistics but then they'd have nothing elsewhere and the Pokrovsk flank is increasingly fragmented.
Are they really willing to sacrifice their entire southern flank to maybe besiege Kursk?
The calculation I would make is to sacrifice anything that Russia doesn't want post-war. If Russia doesn't want it, then it is worthless at the negotiating table.