There's a user on /r/Noncredibledefense with a theory that Lukashenko is actually pretty clever and cunning and he just plays the fool and I was pretty convinced.
I've heard of this theory all the way back when Luka leaked their entire battle plan in Ukraine. And I'm fully subscribed to it as he somehow managed to sit out the entire war because of that. Absolutely genius.
Dude knows controlling russia is a dangerous and headache inducing mess. He's delighted to be dictator off a fairly indespensible vassal state and knows how to play the politics really well.