Ah yes, let's listen to a bank-owned economist about why new home values actually need to be going up. Sure there's no vested interest there, from the guys who sell you your mortgage 🥴
Average house size in 1960 was roughly 1000 sq ft. Average house size now is roughly two and a half times larger. We've also gone from a near universal 8ft ceiling height to trendy 10ft ceilings. We're using far more material per unit, even as family sizes have never been smaller.
At some point people have to pay attention to consumption habits.
There's still plenty of scope for corporate shenanigans on top of all that, but they're not the whole story.
My impression is that developers like to build more premium housing because they can sell it for higher margins. This is probably a symptom of "houses for investment" vs. "houses for homes". How much my house is worth is largely hypothetical if I'm living in it. I have to live somewhere after all, and if I sell it, I just have to live somewhere else.
I think some of that is a catch 22: At one point I went from a 1000sq ft house (built in 1956) to a 2500sq ft house (built in 1985). I had a pile of empty rooms, so ended up filling the space with more stuff, stuff that was almost never used.
I changed cities and went down to a 1000sq ft condo. I was kinda stunned by all the extra crap that I had accumulated that was absolutely useless. Ended up giving a pile of stuff to thrift stores and sold some.
We are living during times of excess prosperity but somehow we can't afford to provide needed services to the population... where is all the money going?
To clarify the homebuilding costs are increasing that much isn't because of the population growth.
Additional demand on building materials might push up the prices slightly, but the higher building costs are a result of inflation, higher interest rates and unfilled jobs in the construction industry.
Yep. One of the problems with relying on interest rates to curb inflation, is that interest rate hikes also make it more expensive to increase supply, ie build more houses (hence stagflation).
I think fundamentally the surge in inflation we are seeing is a supply side issue, less stuff but same or more demand. Between the pandemic and ensuing supply-chain disruptions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has to have been a pretty sustained and severe loss of stuff (especially food) being made with all the resulting increases in prices.
Specifically wrt to housing construction costs in Canada, we should be able to insulate ourselves from much of those bigger underlying problems. The problem also isn't housing costs, that's the symptom. The problem is that housing is expensive.
The article is mostly descriptive of the problems, and it seems more or less on the mark. Not addressed though, and something I ponder, is the role of "housing as an investment" vs. "Housing as a necessity". Developers like to build big expensive houses for higher returns it seems, where what we need is more middle density housing. I think it's getting better, but the article doesn't really go into what sort of houses are being built. Still the problems with lumber supply and concrete will apply no matter what.