When the revolution happens do you think it will Marxist-Leninist, because it will have become more popular as it can prescribe a new socialism for our material conditions, or more Anarchistic in character, because of the individualistic ideology of the west?
Edit: thanks everyone for your responses, answering my questions and more.
There's been a good amount of threads with this question you can search for that have great answers, but IMO the US and the rest of the imperial core, as per Lenin's law that capitalism breaks at the weakest links in the chain, will be the very last countries on earth to have a revolution.
The US empire will fade out of history the same way the British and Roman empires did, with a pathetic, hundreds of years long whiny decline into political turmoil and international obscurity, while it eats itself internally and depopulates as its poor leave or are sacrificed on the altar.
Anarchists can't have a successful revolution because they can't organize installing a light bulb, let alone organizing cross-industry production or a coordinated military defense of a city. It had its go in the 19th and 20th century and failed, and should only be studied by historians as an intellectual curiosity, like blanquism.
It might seem that way when you look at its poverty and increasing unrest, but its political institutions are very stable, its ruling classes are extremely well protected, its protest movements are extremely unorganized, its labor movement died by the 1970s and has been on life support ever since. I've lived in US cities of hundreds of thousands of people, and we can barely scrape together 5 dedicated communists, whereas police often outnumber protesters, and have stations built like fortresses.
Its the most anticommunist country on the planet, and people don't know of alternatives to bourgeois "democracy". Its people are so indoctrinated, that they even vote for candidates who are trying to kill them: nearly all of my boomer family members have major health problems, yet somehow think the US has "socialist medical care", and that we need to get rid of it.
Anarchists can’t have a successful revolution because they can’t organize installing a light bulb, let alone organizing cross-industry production
What about Anarcho-Syndicalists? That structure is a sort of decentralized command economy, instead of the description given in that link of a "network of free contracts".
There has never been a successful ansyn revolution or economy, because a "decentralized command economy" doesn't make any sense, and is no different from "freedom to refuse" in practice. Read the above article.
Lets say a war effort needs x amount of steel refined from a certain region, so that another region can produce tanks. A "decentralized" system gives each region the autonomy to refuse meeting quotas or collaborating, and the whole thing falls apart.
(This is pretty unorganized and will need much editing, but its basic kernels of my analysis of the potential of the US. It doesn't really answer OP's question of ideological revolution, but i am placing it here as people are discussing the feasibility of a US revolution)
Unlike others I don't believe the US will be the last place to have a revolution. I would instead say it will be the place with the sharpest class struggle.
Why do I say this? When I think of de-radicalized populations I think of the Nordic Countries; They have wide social safety nets, benefit from imperialism with little guilt,--As they are "peace loving" countries who "disagree" with the US, but will never take any action.--and have defanged and normalized "Socialism". In the ole US of A; Social safety nets are little to none, we know full and well where our tax dollars go to, and we have only recently opened our eyes to what Socialism is and what it could be. These get more and more apparent with the younger generations, who by the way, will be the ones carrying out the revolution. It's easy to look at boomers or Gen Xers and think the population is too scared to approach socialism with an open mind, but the youth poll high for socialism. Granted they don't know exactly what socialism is, but that is great for us. They know capitalism is bad, and they also know about the Red Scare and will distrust what the US says about socialism (if we can help them walk through the logic it's pretty easy to get the youth to even sympathize with the soviet union!)
In the States, sure you can find the de-radicalized labor aristocratic and typically white "middle class", but you can also find some of the most exploited or demonized members of society; Whether is it is the Indigenous Americans, Black population, Undocumented Immigrants, Immigrants in general, and the Queer community but especially Trans. I would also add the Asian American community who typically have higher incomes, will experience more and more hate as the West loses its influence to the East. Especially Chinese, we have seen what anti asian hate crimes look like at beginning of the Pandemic, and that is without the West even acknowledging the total rise of China! Women with their dwindling rights will become more and more radicalized as the Dems have gone mask off. While Neurodivergence has been heavily normalized with the internet and now TikTok, we still face hardships of the cut throat capitalist system with not being the "ideal workers"--not to mention our thought processes leading us to class consciousness.
While many of these groups may overlap, there is still a nice chunk of the population we know will have radical tendencies--and this is even without mentioning the poor white cis het men!
There are a lot of material factors that agitate the US population, what is needed is the ideological base to guide them. There won't be a revolution soon, but what there needs to be is a massive ML foundation laid out during these times of upheaval. While we give libs a lot of shit, most Americans aren't bigots. If you are worried about hardline Trumpists, they are a minority, a loud minority, but also a minority that is great at alienating the majority of the population. As the country moves farther right, people will look for those voices who stand adamantly against them, and that is us.
If you are considering the actual actions of the revolution here are things to think about: Gun culture has made arming ones self a pretty simple venture. The country itself (I would also add on Canada as it will fall along with the US) is huge with inefficient communication systems and geographic features such as the Rockies, Appalachia, Sierra Nevada as mountain ranges, the deserts sprawling the Southwest, and hell the Mississippi and its extensions splitting open the States, not to mention Canada and Alaska's frozen mountainous terrain and the former's swaths of taiga and tundra, make mass scale deployment of an organized army difficult. That is if the army even wants to fight its own people. The Pentagon has said something as a sliver of concessions like Free College would drastically lower recruitment, so imagine what a worker's revolution would do! Plus marginalized communities are disproportionately in the military, and I would imagine they would heavily sympathize with an ML revolution, especially with the case of New Afrika!
I will leave it here for now, feel free to challenge me or ask my further thoughts. Keep in mind these are just seeds of a further analysis, I just needed to dig them up and plant them somewhere.
I actually completely agree with you, I'm glad I'm not the only one.
I don't believe we're on the precipice of a revolution or anything but given the right material circumstances, good organizing and mobilizing of the people, and a little luck, anything could happen in a few years time.
The contradictions are sharpening faster than ever before and they are a weapon that, if wielded properly, can deliver the blow to the US that the world needs.
If you would have told Lenin in 1914 that in just 3 short years a revolution was accomplished, he would have laughed in your face. I am not calling for head in the clouds idealism, or that America is going to collapse next month or something like that. My point is that it will take work and time, that revolution does not occur spontaneously, and that if we do this correctly I genuinely believe the US doesn't have to be the last to fall.
Some factors that contribute to the success of a revolution.
Factor
US situation
An organized proletariat
The US labor movement died by the 1970s, strikes per year used to be hundreds, since the 90s its less than 10. I've organized in many US cities, some with hundreds of thousands of people, and we can't scrape together a handful of dedicated communists.
a proletariat / peasantry that can bring the economy to its knees
the US largely exported all production to the global south by the end of the 90s, it no longer has that ability. Service and transport workers can strike, but since they are not the source of capitalist surplus (commodity-producing global south proletarians are), their refusal to work isn't a big deal. Also the US cultivates enough unemployment to have a large army of reserve labor to create strike-breakers from.
Openness to communist / anti-imperialist ideas
its the most pro-imperialist, anti-communist country on earth. Indoctrinated from cradle to grave, and reinforced continuously in all its media. Talk to any young bernie/aoc "socialist", and they think socialism is just healthcare with no work, supported by other countries surplus.
a disorganized / unstable capitalist class
the most stable, well organized capitalist class on earth
unstable political institutions
Its bourgeois-democracy is the most stable on earth, even with most of its population disinterested in politics, and elections being a theatre. The energy of its political active ppl are sucked into dead ends of participation in this reality-tv show very effectively.
An unprotected capitalist class
the strongest military and police on earth, with many cities having more cops than there are protesters
A disillusioned army
nope, the US pays its soldiers well and keeps the upper ranks very happy.
civil war
not going to happen because of its strong military that would squash any secession attempt immediately.
I would question the implicit assumption you are making here that there will be such a thing as "the revolution" (singular) in the US. The US is likely to be among the last places in the world to have revolutions and these will follow the long decline and demise of the US empire and the ensuing economic collapse that will be caused by the loss of US hegemony and neo-colonial extraction even as it tries to cling to its hegemony by wasting what little economic base it has left on militarism.
Because of this it is much more likely that we will first see civil conflict followed by a fracturing of the US as it exists today into multiple different entities, some fully others semi-autonomous and with different regional cultures determining what kind of system they will replace the current one with. Some may experiment with anarchism, indigenous communities and other threatened minorities will band together for defense and develop local experiments similar to the Zapatistas, others will go full fascist attempting to return to a mythologized past (and in this pursuit will launch wars on other political entities on the continent), others still will try to cling to some form of stunted liberal democracy as long as the declining material conditions allow (most likely the coastal regions which will be able to trade with the rest of the world). Ultimately through much trial and error they will all arrive at the inevitable conclusion that it's either socialism or barbarism - it only remains to be seen how much barbarism will take place and for how long before they do.
I think your analysis is pretty accurate, though I am slightly more skeptical of the U.S. splitting into various regions as hard or as fast as you say. Its definitely possible, but I think the sheer scale of the U.S. war machine and oppressive imperialist apparatus will make this process more difficult, so that it might actually need a single revolution. But I'm not dying on this wager.